SMH 在 60758 处遇阻，引发技术性回调，但仍维持短线突破结构，支撑位在 $585.15。
逐段跳播
而这真正说得通的地方，是在SMH上。我们今天下跌了1%。不过看看我们距离历史高点有多远。这与标普500以及纳斯达克的情况大不相同。纳斯达克我们刚刚创下全新的历史高点。所以SMH要收复它们已经让出的部分失地，还有大得多的路要走。
And where that makes sense though, guys, is really on the SMH. Now, we were down 1% today. Look though how far we are from the all-time highs. Much different scenario than the S&P 500 as well as the NASDAQ.
NASDAQ we just made brand new all-time highs. So the SMH has a much larger way to go to recover some of the ground that they've already given up.
所以看半导体，我们看到我们做得非常出色，不仅突破了这条下降趋势线，还突破了这条平行通道。现在任何抛压都会首先在SMH这里、这条平行通道顶部585.15美元处找到支撑。
So into the semis we see we did a fantastic job breaking out not only of this declining trend line but we broke out of this parallel channel. Now any sort of selling pressure will find first levels of support with the SMH right here on the top of this parallel channel at $585.15.
对新观众来说，这个平行通道最早可以追溯到2025年4月的解放日低点。可以看到，在突破之前，我们是如何在这个非常狭窄的通道里干净利落地一路上行，直到今年中东战争爆发时将其突破。之后我们就继续一路走高，自那些解放日低点以来累计上涨了294%。
考虑到我们在SMH上以及此前几轮大涨中的表现——分别上涨232%、239%——这是一次非常大的推进。这一次它说：“别管230多了，我们直接上294。”SMH的这一轮走势实在令人难以置信。
For new viewers this parallel channel guys starts all the way back at the liberation day lows in April of 2025. You can see how clean we marched up in this very tight channel before we breached it this year when the war broke out in the Middle East.
And then we just continued rallying all the way up, creating a 294% gain since those liberation day lows. A very big push considering what we had done on the SMH and previous big rallies, pushing up 232%, 239%.
This one said, "Forget the 230s, let's go to 294." And that's just an incredible run that the SMH has had.
正如我所说，回到日线时间框架来看，它仍然维持着对平行趋势线和下降趋势线的近期突破。就是这个60758的水平。无论是铜，还是SMH，还是纳斯达克，都无所谓。把你的斐波那契画上去，让自己看得更清楚，帮助你的视野捕捉下一个阻力位以及支撑位。
所以，我现在在SMH上讲的这个，做起来非常简单，直接从历史高点画到低点，也就是近期低点。那么它落在哪里？就落在这里。哎呀，刚才没点到顶部。砰，好了。正好在60758。那就是斐波那契61.8%回撤位。
任何一次上攻，尤其是像这样的一次上攻，我们都应该在那里遇到阻力。那是一次快速上攻，从低点到近期高点只用了1、2、3、4、5、6、7天。因此，我们已经看到了一些回落。所以，这只是一次技术性回调，不管其他市场在发生什么。半导体今天本来就该有一点回调。
And as I said, down back at the daily time frame, still maintaining a near-term breakout from both the parallel and the declining trend line. This 60758 level, guys. Whether that's copper, whether that's uh the SMH or whether that's the NASDAQ, it doesn't matter.
Throw up your fibs, enlighten yourself, help you vi help your vision capture the next resistance as well as support levels. So, what I'm talking about right here on the SMH, very simple to do right from the all-time highs down to the bottom, the near-term bottom.
And where does that come up? That comes Oops, here. That didn't click on the top. Boom. There we go. Right at 60758. That's that fib 618 retrace level. We should be experiencing resistance there on any sort of push up, especially a pushup much like this.
That's rapid that was 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 days from the low right up until the near-term high. And thus, we've seen some pullback. So, this is just a technical pullback regardless of what's going on in the rest of the markets.
The semis were due for a little bit of a pullback today.
这个频道对 $SMH 的历次判断
Verified Investing 在这只股票上共 13 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。