SoFi（SOFI）估值偏低；其表现不佳源于宏观因素而非公司自身问题；预计当利率压力缓解时，市场将迅速对其重新评估。

Okay, the first stock of the day, for those who know me, I am a fan of financial technology companies, and I prefer this particular stock, which is SoFi Technologies.

I know, I know, looking at the stock's performance since the beginning of the year, we find that it has fallen by 38%. So, the stock has been performing very poorly since the beginning of the year, while the market is up, and everything is up, but you look at this stock and find it down 38 %, and you might think: "Hmm, maybe there is a problem with the company."

But in reality, there are no problems at the company right now. The company is operating as it should despite some macroeconomic challenges, and this is precisely why the stock has fallen in this way. It is simply a macroeconomic story.

It's a bad stock, not a bad company, as they say.

SoFi entered this year expecting a cut in interest rates. But this did not happen. Then, the forecasts remained the same, but their assumptions about the macroeconomy worsened, which in my opinion is a good thing, because if your assumptions for the year have worsened , but your forecasts remain the same , then in my opinion that is a positive thing.

Then, the outlook for this year actually improved, while the assumptions worsened. So , they now expect one or two interest rate cuts, oops, two increases. We have already witnessed one lifting. Therefore, expect increased revenue growth.

They still expect revenue growth of 30% for the year, 52% growth in adjusted EBITDA , 72% growth in net income , and 54% growth in diluted earnings per share.

This, in my opinion, is what a growth company is supposed to be. And let's not forget that they face macroeconomic challenges. They said, "Look, if the interest rate situation improves, it will accelerate the growth of our entire business.

But even if it doesn't improve, we can still grow. We can still grow very quickly in all areas. There is no problem with that."

They have also previously provided us with some medium- term guidance. Their revenue growth is also expected to increase by 30% annually until approximately 2028. Adjusted earnings per share are expected to grow at a much faster pace over the same time period.

Again, if we do get interest rate cuts eventually, it now looks like they might only happen in the middle or late part of 2027 , but with energy prices, we can't say for sure. It may remain high for a longer period.

If energy prices fall , this will of course affect inflation growth , and this in turn will affect the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates or not.

But so far, this is an overall growth company. Yes, they have several business sectors; the lending sector is performing very well, and the financial services sector is also performing very well.

As for the technology platform, let's be honest , most investors were very disappointed with it, and still feel that way. This is it. But even this sector, it now appears, has bottomed out in the last quarter and is expected to start growing again. Not hugely, but at least it will grow.

And I will say this, and I have said it before, even in a high interest rate environment, a company like SoFi will still generate huge profits.

But if interest rates are high, a company like SoFi, which has a banking license—yes, I know it's a bank, so its shares should probably sometimes trade at 23 times expected earnings— can still generate substantial profits in a high-interest-rate environment.

The excuse "This is a bank , so it shouldn't have a high price-to-earnings ratio" is, in my opinion, a rather flimsy excuse , because you get a high price-to-earnings ratio because you are a growth company.

As I said, this is a growth company. It has achieved 30% growth over the year, and in the last quarter, around 40%, and earnings per share are growing at an even faster pace.

So, yes, you get a higher price-to-earnings ratio because you are a growth company. To say that SoFi only deserves a high earnings multiple simply because it is a technology company is illogical.

There are many non- tech companies that are experiencing rapid growth, and I may talk about one of them later.

SoFi gets a high earnings multiple because it is growing at a faster pace than its competitors, and certainly faster than the market. Therefore, I understand the frustration you feel seeing SoFi's stock drop so significantly since the beginning of the year.

But if you delve a little deeper and look at what the company has accomplished in an environment that has witnessed many challenges, especially during the last five years, if the company had been suffering from mismanagement, it would not have reached this stage.

But the company's performance has been excellent over the past two years , and I expect it to continue. I believe SoFi is an undervalued company , but it is under pressure due to rising interest rates.

Once these pressures are gone, I think we will see a rapid reassessment.

What I find interesting is the discrepancy we see between the company's performance and how its shares trade in this matter. I think there are several reasons for that . There has been a debate about evaluating SoFi as a rapidly growing technology company versus a traditional bank, and this discrepancy is still evident in its valuation.

Several weaknesses have also emerged in the technology platform sector, particularly in products such as Galileo and Technisys, which have seen a decline in revenues and profit margins, leading the market, in some respects, to view SoFi as a consumer lending institution.

This, in my opinion, led to a decrease in the price-to-earnings ratio.

Of course, there was a report about short sellers of shares earlier this year, which SoFi handled correctly, but there was a significant impact of sentiment on the share price .

When we look at the company's actual performance, we find that the picture is completely different.

In my opinion, as an investor currently following this project, the focus should be on the cross-buying mechanism, i.e., making a profit from users. In the second quarter, 51% of new product launches came from existing members, which is a very important element.

This means significantly reducing customer acquisition costs , which also demonstrates the level of user loyalty to the platform.

Attention should also be paid to the ratio of revenue from lending to revenue from other activities. The management is strongly focused on fee-based revenue, international money transfers via blockchain technology, and its financial tools such as the AI-powered SoFi coach, which is another element worth watching.

There are many positive aspects to this project, which are not reflected in the share price . These are some of the key indicators and developments that I am currently monitoring as an investor.

I would like to correct a false piece of information. a little. I just said that the net revenue forecast for this year is 30%. Those were the expectations. The updated forecasts range between 30 and 35%.

I would like to add that the reason they have raised their revenue forecasts without affecting earnings per share so far is: firstly, due to the current circumstances; Secondly, because the fiscal year 2026 forecast assumes a full annual tax rate of 22%, compared with an average tax rate in the mid- twenties when the 2026 earnings per share forecast of 60 cents was originally made.

They told us, I think in a post on X, that otherwise , expectations would have been higher. Earnings per share would have been higher than 60%.

And look, revenue is growing faster than expected despite poor macroeconomic assumptions, while earnings per share remain flat. If they can surprise us in the next quarter despite us already raising the interest rate, I think the stock will rise, but if expectations and assumptions remain as they are, the price may stay below $20 until we perhaps see further easing in the interest rate environment.