SPY强劲但面临短期下行风险（未来2-3周），之后可能在9月/10月触底，第四季度更强劲。
逐段跳播
标普 500 指数从区间顶部的关键支撑位反弹。我们之前讨论过这一点。我认为重要的是，如果市场要下跌，它必须放弃突破时的全部涨幅，但它触及了该支撑位，然后上涨了。
S&P 500 bounced from a key top of the range support. We talked about that. I thought it was important that if the market was going to be negative, it had to give up that whole rally when it had the breakout, but it hit that support and then moved up.
本周指数方面，标普 500 指数和纳斯达克指数在周四开始的反弹中小幅上涨。
Indexes for the week, S&P 500 and NASDAQ up small on the rebound that they got starting Thursday.
让我们看看这些图表。我们先看标普 500 指数，标普，同样，我们一直在关注的是，可能还会有几周的下跌。现在我把次要支撑位放在这里。当我在本周早些时候做分析时，市场看起来正在跌破日线级别，我把它显示得更陡峭地下跌。
但现在我必须尊重我所看到的。这很强劲，并且在纳斯达克创下更深的低点后，在这个早期低点处转向了。
And let's look at those charts. uh we'll take a look at the S&P 500 first, S&P and uh again uh same thing that we've been looking at in here and that is the potential for a couple of more downside weeks. Now I put in the minor supports right over here. When I did my analysis earlier in the week and the market looked like it was breaking the daily level, I showed it a little steeper to the downside. But now I have to respect what I'm seeing. This is strong and it turned up on this early low where the NASDAQ made its low uh deeper than this.
问题是，这是否就是我们一直在寻找的低点，因为它只是保持在 3 个月的区间内，然后突破了？当某物突破后回落并测试区间的顶部时，那是因为这里都是卖家。这些卖家在那个水平上持续了 3 个月。
现在，当它回落时，他们想重新进场。他们想回补空头。它回到了他们卖出的地方，他们想买入。所以这就是为什么在区间顶部会得到支撑。这就是我们讨论过的。这对分析很重要。
The question is, was this the low we were looking for as it just simply stayed in a 3month range and then broke out? When something breaks out and it comes down and tests the peak of the range, that's because all there were sellers here. Every one of these sellers for 3 months at that level. Now, when it comes back down, they want to get back in. They want to cover their shorts. they it's getting back down to where they sold and they want to buy. So that's why you get support at the top of range. That's why we talked about that. That's important for the analysis.
所以，这看起来又可能是几周的下跌，因为当我在日线图上观察时，日线周期已经跌破。这让我更加看跌。我之前预测它会下跌 7.3%，到达那个低点，即周线支撑位。对于我们所处的位置来说，这不是一个很大的调整期，三个周期同时下行。这是一个强劲的市场，也许你就是做不到。
So again, this looks like another potential couple of weeks because when I look at it over here on the daily chart, the daily cycle broke down. This is what got me more negative. I had this projected over here, this one, uh, to come down 7.3% down to that low right over there, which is weekly support. That's not a very big corrective period for where we are, where you get all of this alignment of three cycles coming down. This is a strong market and and maybe you just can't do that.
所以，我删除了那个，把它下调到那些次要周线支撑位，目标是在未来两到三周内进行修正，从 7528 到 7456。
So, uh, I'm I I removed that and I put it down to where those minor weekly supports are, you know, targeting a correction over the next two or 3 weeks of, uh, 7528 down to 7456.
所以，我上调了它，因为它找到了区间顶部的支撑，然后回升，甚至超过了 61.8。我必须尊重这一点。记住，我们是不可知论者。正如我在节目早些时候说过的，当我们讨论这个时，我和 Arvy 讨论了不同的分析方法，Harvey 会看这个，我代表他说，"嘿，我们这里有一个积极的 OBI。
" 我们这里没有任何负面的东西。细丝带仍然至少是平的，并且在转向。你看到那个绿色箭头了吗？所以，有很多理由尊重这个市场就是不想下跌的事实。
So, I've upgraded that because it found support at the top of the range and then moved back up even over the 61.8. I have to respect that. Remember, we're agnostic. Again, as I said earlier in the show, as we talked about this, and Arvy and I discussed our different approaches to analysis, um Harvey would look at this, and I'm speaking for him, and say, "Hey, we have a positive OBI here." Um, we don't have anything negative here. The slim ribbon is still at least flat and uh turning up. You see that green arrow? So, there's a lot of reason to be respectful of the fact that this market just does not want to go down.
与此同时，我仍然在观察这些排列，说我所看到的一切，当我们看 HYG（高收益公司债）、SMH、XLF、XBI 时，所有这些都告诉我未来几周存在风险。然后一些证据表明第四季度可能会强劲。
And at the same time, I'm still looking at the alignments and saying everything that I'm looking at when we look at HYG, the high yield corporates, we look at SMH, uh, XLF, XBI, all of them say to me there's risk for the next couple of weeks. And then the some of the evidence says Q4 is likely to be strong.
所以，当我们看标普 500 指数时，我们会把它视为一个积极水平，因为我想说，什么会让我更积极？突破这里的这个水平。那个水平是 7770，比如说。所以如果它突破 7770，那将表明这里的下跌是虚假的。它获得了支撑，然后情况好多了。
So we'll look at that as a positive level when I go to the S&P 500 because I want to say okay what's going to make me more positive? It's getting above this level right over here. And that level right there is is a seven 7770, let's say. So if it gets over 7770 right over there, that will say this breakdown over here was false. It got support and then is in much better shape.
这就是对标普 500 指数和纳斯达克的看法。你可以看出我在这里讲一个故事。就像所有的变量都摆在我们面前。潜在的下行风险，更好的第四季度。
So that is a look at the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ. And you can tell I'm telling a story in here looking at this. Um, it's like it's like all of the variables are laid out in front of us. Potential move to the downside, a better fourth quarter.
根据我看的一些长期图表，10 月份可能会有一些波动。你可能会看到 Katie 和 Ariv 展示的一些低点出现在 10 月。但然后在 9 月、10 月的某个时候，我们可能会有一个重要的底部，然后是一个更好的第四季度。
Likely there may be some waffling into October uh based on some of the longer term charts I'm looking at. Uh, and you could see some of the lows show up in October that Katie and Ariv showed. Uh, but then sometime in September, October, we're likely to have an important bottom and then a better fourth quarter.
我所做的是，你可以看到 SPY、QQQ、IWM、DIA。因为它是中性的，我希望它告诉我何时变得看涨或看跌。所以，我们这里有一个警报系统，你可以下载。我去通知，你可以看到我点击了看跌或看涨。
这样，当这些中的任何一个变得看跌或看涨时，它就会给我发消息告诉我。
what I've done and you can see the spy QQQI WMD AI. I because it's neutral, I want it to tell me when it gets bullish or bearish. So, we have an alert system in here that you can download. And I go to notify and you can see I have it clicked on bearish or bullish. That way, it will give send me a message and tell me when any of these has turned bearish or bullish.
他说在等什么
这个频道对 $SPY 的历次判断
Steve Miller 在这只股票上共 3 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。