SPY 正横盘整理；守住支撑意味着有望升向新高，而跌破支撑或收益率上升则预示下行。
逐段跳播
好，我们开始吧。来看一下我们的SPY图表。我们之前已经多次谈到这个横盘形态或者说横盘震荡。我们确实回到了区间底部。我知道我们曾跌破760，但今天，至少从这里的跳空高开来看，今天看起来确实会重新收复该位置。
所以，第一，关键在于我们能否真正收在75857上方？我们现在交易在该位置上方，这很好。我们现在位于该位置上方，这很好，但我们真正想要的是收在该位置上方。我们还把目光投向20日移动均线，我们其实一直在它附近来回震荡，有时交易在其上方，有时把它当作阻力、交易在其略下方。
但今天它就在眼前。如果我们向上交易到该水平，76677应该是上方阻力。如果我们能收在该位置上方，那就太好了。如果我把图表稍微缩小一点，涵盖大概整个夏季，大约从4月底或4月初开始。
你可以看到我们的成交量控制点仍然在下方740这里。所以我很想交易得更高一些。我很想或许突破创出历史新高。但如果我们还没准备好这么做，最终又回落进来，那么740也值得放在你的雷达上。
不是今天，而是未来如果我们确实交易走低时另一个可能的反弹位置。
All right, let's do it. Let's take a look at our SPY chart. Now, we've talked a lot about the sideways formation or the sideways trading. We did come back into the bottom of the range. I know we dipped beneath that 760, but today, at least with the gap up here, it sure looks like we're going to recapture that today. So, number one, the key is going to be, can we actually close above 75857? It's great that we're trading above that now. Uh, it's great that we're peing above that, but really we want to close above that. We also have our sights set on the 20-day moving average, which we've really kind of been oscillating around, sometimes kind of trading above, sometimes using it as resistance and trading a little bit below it. But that is on deck here today. 76677 should be upside resistance if we trade up towards that level. If we can uh close above that, that would be excellent. If I back the chart out a little bit here to encompass um maybe the entire summer about since what the end of or beginning of April here. Um you can see that our volume point of control is still down here at 740. So I'd love to trade a little bit higher. I'd love to maybe break out to a new all-time high. But if we're just not ready to do that yet and we do end up coming back in, it's also worth keeping 740 on your radar. Not for today, but for another possible bounce spot in the future if we do in fact trade lower.
如果我们看这里，看标普，我们基本上就坐在这个关键水平上。今天到目前为止有一点反弹，我想。但我认为在未来几天，今天、周一、周二，如果我们守住这个水平，我认为我们会重新回到这里并逐步走高。
如果我们跌破这个支撑，我认为我们可能很快就会跌到这里。
And if we come over here and we look at the S&P, we are basically sitting on this critical level. Well, a little bit of a rebound this today, I guess, so far. But I think over the next couple days, today, Monday, Tuesday, if we hold this level here, I think we revisit here and kind of work higher. If we break this support, I think we could get down here pretty quickly.
所以，在我看来，我们真正需要关注的可能是这边的收益率，因为看看那个。我们正在接近5%。这是10年期收益率。通常人们把它看作这样的折线图。这其实没什么区别，但不管怎样。所以5%有点象征意义。
从历史上看，它其实并不算高。之所以显得高，是因为自房地产泡沫以来它一直被人为压低。
So, this is probably, in my opinion, what we really need to focus on is yields over here because look at that. We're getting close to 5%. This is the 10-year yield. Usually, people view this as a line chart um like this. Not that it really makes a difference, but anyway. So 5% is kind of symbolic. Historically, it's really not that high. It's because artificially low ever since the housing bubble.
但不管怎样，如果这超过5%，我认为那会让标普跌破那个支撑并走低。
But anyway, this could be pretty this if this exceeds 5%, I think that's makes the S&P take out that support and head lower.
很快，就在我们做这个之前，让我们回到SPY。看看，哦，天哪，得在这里输入真正的SPY。这就是SPY的样子。这里是那个成交。我们遭到抛售。我们一路跌到76028左右。反弹了。现在我们转绿了。
我们走高，看起来，哦对，Joe，我们也会做Uber。谢谢提醒。所以，这就是SPY正在做的。它带动了其他一些股票。SanDisk就是其中之一。你可以看到这个形态看起来非常非常相似。所以我怀疑它会随大盘一起在这里交易。
Really quick, just before we do this, let's go back to the spy. Look at the Oh, gee, for heaven's sakes, got to type in the actual spy here. Here's what the spy looks like. Here was the print. We sold off. We went right down to 76028 or thereabouts. Bounced. Now we've gone green. We've gone higher and it look Oh yeah, Joe, we'll do Uber, too. Thanks for the reminder. So, this is what SPY is doing. It's taking some of the other stocks with it. And SanDisk is one of said stocks. You can see this formation looks very, very similar here. So, I suspect this is going to trade here with the rest of the market.
Amarie提到SPY和NASDAQ走势相反，确实如此。NASDAQ在这里走低，可能是因为我们开盘后看到的Oracle回落。标普500实际上看起来可能试图突破盘前高点。我们上方有那个价值位，666多一点。
and Amarie mentioning that the SPY and the NASDAQ moving in opposite directions and indeed that's true. NASDAQ moving lower here perhaps on the back of that oracle fade that we saw right out of the open. S&P 500 actually looks like it might try and take out the pre-market high. We have that value up there 666 and change.
SPY看起来试图走高，但目前难以突破766。
SPY looks like it is trying to go higher, but it's struggling to get through 766 right now.
SPY确实开始有点回落，正如Ann Marie所暗示的那样，我们看看它是否会回到67437，也就是你的VWAP所在位置。
SPY did start to roll over a little bit just like Ann Marie kind of insinuated and we'll see if that does come back in towards 67437 which is where your VWAP is at.
SPY完全按照Anmarie所说的那样走了。在这上方来回震荡。没有力量突破盘前高点。这里确实感觉很震荡。我们有2024年5月的那个高点。如果你把它画过6月2日的高点，或者随便什么时候——我画好了——如果你继续在这里画这条趋势线，你可以看到我们突破的位置。
我们刚刚回测了那条趋势线，现在我们应该朝着新高迈进。我会说，600多，有可能。不是今天，但你知道，很快。
Spy did exactly what Anmarie uh said it was going to do. Chopped around up here. Did not have the strength to go through the pre-market high. It definitely feels choppy up here. we had that high in May of 2024. And if you d draw it through the high of uh June 2nd uh or whenever >> I've got it. >> And if you keep that drawing that trend line here, you can see that uh where we broke out. We've just back tested that trend line and now we should be uh moving towards new highs. I'd say I'd say that maybe 600s, you know, possible. Not today, but you know, pretty soon.
SPY在这里试图向上突破结构。我们看看能不能实现。
Uh SPY is trying for a break of structure to the upside here. We'll see if we get it.
这是SPY。我在想它是否会试图走高。
So here's the spy. I'm wondering if this is going to try and go higher.
观察点
这个频道对 $SPY 的历次判断
Benzinga 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。