在理性经济环境下，SPY 无法实现 10.5% 的回报，因为高估值需要不可持续的利润率扩张或估值倍数扩张。
逐段跳播
我原以为我们在2021年已经见顶，而当标普500下跌18%或19%、纳斯达克下跌35%时，这一判断看起来完全准确，但我们随后以连续两个25%的增长率反弹了回来。
I thought we peaked in 2021, which seemed entirely accurate when the S&P 500 fell by 18 or 19% and the Nasdaq by 35%, but we bounced back with two consecutive 25% growth rates.
在2021年，你经历了这样一个10年：标普500指数累计上涨了16.6%。它见证了利润率和估值倍数的爆发式扩张。营收增长并不多，但市场的交易倍数为22.8倍，对应的是创纪录的13.3%的利润率。
In 2021, you had a 10-year period in which the S&P 500 index had made gains of 16.6%. It witnessed an explosion in profit margins and valuation multiples. There wasn't much revenue growth, but the market was trading at 22.8 times a record profit margin of 13.3%.
与此同时，它在2021年经历了利润率的显著下滑，随后又有所回升；所以到年底我们又回到了12.8%。我们还没到13.3%的水平，但已经很接近了，而倍数更高。你现在处于26倍。
Meanwhile, it experienced a significant decline in margins in 2021, followed by a recovery; So we're back to 12.8% at the end of the year. We're not at the 13.3% level, but we're close, and the multiplier is higher. You are now at 26 times.
所以，如果你在未来10年把利润率保持在12.8%不变，那么在12.8%的利润率下，这需要43倍的市盈率，然后你基本上就能得到你的销售增长，以及一开始为1.2%的股息率。所以，价格如此之高，以至于股息率很低。
So, if you keep the margin constant over the next 10 years at 12.8%, that would require a P/E ratio of 43 at a margin of 12.8%, and then you would essentially get your sales growth and what starts as a dividend yield of 1.2%.
So, prices are so high that the dividend yield is low.
如果你从另一端来做，通过倍数扩张来获得一切……或者利润率扩张，你会在把倍数保持在26的同时，将利润率从12.8%提高到20.7%。
If you do it at the other end, by getting everything through multiple expansion...or margin expansion, you would raise the margin from 12.8% to 20.7% while keeping the multiplier at 26.
如果你简单地做一个50/50的分配，把倍数扩张和利润率扩张结合起来，你会把利润率提高到16.4%，把倍数提高到33.3。
If you simply do a 50/50 distribution and combine multiple expansion and margin expansion, you raise the margin to 16.4% and the multiplier to 33.3.
对我来说，除非你处于恶性通胀之中并拥有有形资产来对冲这种极高的通胀，否则没有办法实现10.5%的回报。否则，如果你面对的是一个理性的经济体，那么在市值加权的标普500上，没有办法实现10.5%的回报。
For me, there is no way to achieve a 10.5 percent return unless you are in a state of hyperinflation and have tangible assets to counteract this extremely high inflation. Otherwise, if you have a rational economy, there is no way to achieve a 10.5 percent return on the market capitalization-weighted S&P 500.
这个频道对 $SPY 的历次判断
The Acquirers Podcast 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。