《Are We Facing a Lost Decade for the S&P 500? | Christopher Bloomstran》
在理性经济环境下，SPY 无法实现 10.5% 的回报，因为高估值需要不可持续的利润率扩张或估值倍数扩张。
我原以为我们在2021年已经见顶，而当标普500下跌18%或19%、纳斯达克下跌35%时，这一判断看起来完全准确，但我们随后以连续两个25%的增长率反弹了回来。
I thought we peaked in 2021, which seemed entirely accurate when the S&P 500 fell by 18 or 19% and the Nasdaq by 35%, but we bounced back with two consecutive 25% growth rates.
在2021年，你经历了这样一个10年：标普500指数累计上涨了16.6%。它见证了利润率和估值倍数的爆发式扩张。营收增长并不多，但市场的交易倍数为22.8倍，对应的是创纪录的13.3%的利润率。
In 2021, you had a 10-year period in which the S&P 500 index had made gains of 16.6%. It witnessed an explosion in profit margins and valuation multiples. There wasn't much revenue growth, but the market was trading at 22.8 times a record profit margin of 13.3%.