TSLA是退休投资的看涨论点；与SpaceX的潜在合并将创造一家到2032年价值18万亿至35万亿美元的合并实体。

Today I will be talking about an update to the Retire on but with a twist and that is what happens if you have Tesla and if it converts to SpaceX, what are the ratios? How does it impact your retirement bag?

My question is, is our retire on Tesla bags? I finally filled my bag with about 320 shares, about 58% of my portfolio. And you said, look at our Tesla shares as an option on SpaceX. Yes, a call option on SpaceX, which I get, but how do we look at this as far as retire on by 2032 with 300 shares and your and other analyst projections of price now that everybody believes SpaceX will buy Tesla? Does the number of shares change because of the price post merger and several years out?

So, first of all, let's break down some of the numbers because there's quite a bit to this. So, I apologize for the next few slides. Pause them, take your time on them, etc. as you go through. But this here's your baseline. 320 shares and under different conservative predictions. Okay, the old bear was about target 2032 was 2700 to 3100 give or take a few dollars. The expected case is 5200 and then my bull target was 8 ways to $8,000 approximately 8,200 bucks. If you have 320 shares and assume SpaceX didn't exist, your bear would take you to 864 to92. you call it nearly a million bucks. Uh the the expected target 1.66 million. It's hard to believe, I know. And then eight ways to 8,000 to 2.62 million. Nuts. Now, if you pull out 4% after 2032, you can easily pull out 40K to 67K to 105K at just 4%. And that is a juicy back to retire on.

Now, this is the key part. And I've been talking about this for a long time, the merger math with different premiums. So, for example, if SpaceX decides to buy Tesla, they can't just say, "We'll buy at the current share price." No, there has to be a premium to entice the shareholders to vote to sell at a 50% deal premium. You can see here the rate of read this table, your 320 shares converting at maybe a SpaceX per Tesla 3.7. your 320 shares becomes 1,183 SpaceX shares and the Tesla holder percentage of the new company will be 51.8.

I don't think it'll work out that way. I think SpaceX will increase in value more once the lockups are through. I don't expect a merger to happen until 2027 or beyond, but definitely probably within the next two years. And by that time, SpaceX will acrue probably a lot more value. So take this with a grain of salt, especially on the percentage holding. But that gives you your math of what you need to think about now is okay, if you have Tesla shares, how many SpaceX shares that become?

Also, the other big question you asked is does 320 shares get you to your retire on with all these changes? So you got to think in terms of percentages and not in terms of tickers anymore because all those tickers are going to change. In fact, the SpaceX ticker and the Tesla ticker will probably just become X. I think that is what Elon has always wanted. But right now, you own about 0.000081 000081 shares or percentage of Tesla. And after the 50% premium or 40% or 60% depending on what we get, you'll have 0.435 of the combo which is Tesla and SpaceX. That's the way you need to think in terms of dimensions.

Now, what does this combo mean? This is the critical part. So, if you look at the combined valuations of where we're going, like the Tesla sandbag is a 12 trillion market cap at $3,100 into the future. SpaceX super conservative 6 trillion, but really it's going to be a lot higher. It's going to be in the tens of trillions, I believe, especially with some of the predictions that Elon Musk has been coming out with. Your combined bag will have a market cap of 18 trillion. And you can multiply that by your percentage from the previous slide that you hold. So your bag will still be worth if it's a combined sandbag of 18 trillion which is very conservative it'll be worth 1 million to 1.3 million.

The expected valuation of Tesla and SpaceX will be somewhere between 28 trillion and 35 trillion I reckon by 2032 especially when you see the type of stuff that they're doing at scale between Cybercab Optimus Space Data Centers Elon Web Services Compute. you know, he's now building blades for turbines because there's a fiveyear wait time for turbines and he needs them to create energy for the data centers. Nobody else is thinking like this or doing this, but if this does happen, your bag of 320 shares today will be worth somewhere between 1.6 million and $2.2 million.

Again, I do want to stress everything could go to zero. We don't know where any of this is going to go. Just bear that in mind. It's risky. And I put together this little new chart. This is a guide, not financial advice, but to set goals and targets. So, a good way to position yourself is try to get to 655 SpaceX shares, which cost about 85,000 today, or 323 Tesla shares, which costs a little bit more. That is the guide of how you need to play.

Uh for those of you in tax regimes like me, high tax regimes, it's difficult to sell things that have a very low cost basis and incur lots of taxes and pivot. Um so bear that in mind. If you're taxfree, you have a much better opportunity. That's why every Wednesday on the TA video, I talk about the Tesla SpaceX pair trade, which is a sweet one, too.

And the most important thing as well to bear in mind is what could kill your retire on math. These are things that sometimes people, believe it or not, do not even consider, but it's critical. So, they everybody assumes, okay, uh SpaceX is going to acquire Tesla, it'll be a premium of 40 to 60%. And everything will be hunky dory. But no, there are things that could derail that. One, if the premium comes in under 25%, i.e. not 40 to 60%, that dings the Tesla shareholders. But if it does come in under 25%, you know what the Tesla shareholders will say to SpaceX, they'll say, "Go pound sand. We're not taking that." Also, if the deal is heavy cash instead of stock, I doubt that would happen as well because they need the cash to build things like Terraab and all the other good stuff.

Um, now the other problem is if because you did mention selling some of your SpaceX Tesla to rebalance into the AI13, but remember if you do that, you can kill your compounding, which is the product to get to where you want to be. In a perfect world, you need to have multiple retireon bags. you know, make sure the big focus right now is building those bags and sitting on those positions and trading around the edges if you like, but build that big fat mattress and then you can start if you start withdrawing, by the way, in 2027 to 2028 before the big free cash flow shows up for Cyber Cab and Optimus, the opportunity cost of selling early is huge. So, stole the withdrawal, okay? Don't clip the bag before the big stuff comes. So important. You know, suffer a little today for the huge payoff in the future. When you have a share that goes from maybe 300 bucks to $3,000, that's a 10x. Every share you sell today for 300 bucks, say give or take, is $3,000 to $5,000 to $8,000 future value. That is the scary thing.

So, we'll do more on this as well. If there are questions, drop them below. It's tricky what I just walked through, but that's exactly the way I'm thinking about this merger and exactly the way I'm thinking about the retire on targets that people should have. And right now, I have, and I shared this as well on Patreon a couple weeks ago, my layers for where I buy these assets. Remember, watch many things, wait for stuff to fall into your traps, and then grab them with both hands.

Next question is from Mr. Burns. Hey Mr. Burns, how are you? Uh well aware of your thoughts on anthropic. However, given the likely demand for the upcoming IPO, could you see any linkage to SpaceX greater than a trillion AI new largest IPO ever, etc. in so far as short-term SpaceX selloff as investors chase the next shiny toy, which could be an excellent time to to stack SpaceX.

I like the way you think. I like the way you're planning ahead. This is very clever. And you have to be prepared for these types of things, especially with dry powder. So you can grab them again with both hands.

So let's look at a couple of things. First of all, anthropic uh IPO, we don't know what what is what it's going to go out at, but there's rumors of two trillion. Okay. SpaceX is 1.75 trillion. Dario wants to trump Elon Musk at every stage. Uh SpaceX raised 75 billion. I reckon these guys and there was a green shoe as well. Little extra on top on of that. I think Dario will probably need to raise a hundred billion dollars at least because he's got to spend so much in renting infra to keep his business alive. So that is the skinny between these two.

Now it's also important uh there's a lot of risk with anthropic. They don't have what I call hardness. They don't have infrastructure. They don't have moes per se and they f face fierce frontier competition and they own zero infra. Remember they rent every what and GPU from the likes of Google and AWS and SpaceX. If I was Dario and I have my entire capability dependent on others, I would not be able to sleep at night. I would not.

Also he has delusions of grandeur. He said uh or rumors to have said from multiple sources he believes the future could be just one company which would be anthropic and then just government entities. That is the most dystopian thing I've ever heard which is pretty creepy and scary. Also there are people shout out to David Shapiro. He thinks uh Daria is just a power seeking narcissist. AI safety is just a narrative he latched on to. He's trying to get in bed with people like the Pope and government officials for regulatory capture and everything. It's insane what he's doing. And according to David here, his track record is abysmal and his actions speak louder than words. Remember always words actions. Words are pretty meaningless. But watch the behavior and the actions at the end of the day. And the anthropic moral facade is crumbling. There are things that tell me it could be a house of cards, especially when you see yes, they're still growing now, but the fundamentals behind the growth are changing as the competition and the open source models ramp up as well.

Now, the other simple way I'll turn off my camera for this so you see the whole thing. This is my sum of the parts valuation model for SpaceX and easily gets us to 18.45 trillion. If you remember the combo that I had uh I don't know remember where it was slide uh I think it was slide eight. Let's go back to slide 8 for a second. Remember that number 18.545 trillion and on slide eight I had here 18 trillion combined sandbag that does not include Tesla. That's how much I've sandbagged it. Very important to remember that. Now let's go back. All these numbers make sense.

anthropic and everybody's heard this the actual intellectual property for a Frontier model are the weights of the model and they can all be stored on a USB thumb drive whereas SpaceX if you look at all they have the Elon Web Services the LM micro hard starlink Starlink direct to call cellular things X payments X revenue launch NASA government contracts goes on and on now they're building turbine uh Colossus 1, Colossus 2, all the GPUs they own. It's insane. The stuff on the right is extremely hard to replicate. The stuff on the left isn't. That would make me very, very nervous out there.

Now, strategy, what could happen in the event of an IPO? Could the price fall? Could it tank? I don't see anybody selling the power plant and the rocket fleet to buy a chatbot where the weights can be fitted on a thumb drive. Anthropic does have a massive customer and partner concentration as well with both Amazon and Google. And if an IPO were to take SpaceX down 10 to 20%. That would be a gift. But I also doubt that would happen. There could be other reasons to trigger that, but not anthropic IPO. And remember, $100 billion to raise. There's a lot of liquidity. There's like $8 trillion sitting on the sidelines in cash. A lot of people looking to get out of other stuff. So, you know, I would be surprised. But I like the way you think. Um, who knows? It seems like Dario is in a rush to IPO. Anybody that buys that IPO, I think, would be a fool. So, be very careful out there, too. Again, look at the moat. Look at the TAMs. That is the secret source of what you do when investing.

But if it's going to grow fast, like things like $100 strike leaps and SpaceX, I consider them a no-brainer.

I'm a bit short in dry pattern now because I've been aggressively stacking Tesla in recent dips.

But the problem is from what I've heard is Elon Musk has secured 30 to 40% of the entire Vera Rubin NBL72 supply because he also needs them for space and other things and they're co-designing them.

I've learned a ton here with Nvidia 11% and Tesla 25% of my portfolio. Would you use covered calls as the trim on an overweight name you still believe in or just sell some shares?

Covered calls all day long from I think it was 94 95 onwards. Anyhow, they are great for trimming because very three very simple reasons. You get paid to sell instead of just hitting the sell button. you collect the option premium immediately and if the shares get called away, your effective sales price is the strike price plus the premium you pocketed, which is awesome.