TSLA的看涨论点取决于加速边缘案例映射的时间线；成功将使CyberCab实现指数级扩展，迈向605美元的目标价。

It's the morning after the CyberCup event that Elon Musk didn't attend, and there are some positive and negative aspects we need to assess for Tesla and CyberCup.

Most importantly, this process, which I call " edge mapping," I believe will be a crucial component for Tesla in the future. The main thing that caught my attention was the CyberCup team's repeated assertion that they do not use maps, and that they rely on a strategy based solely on sighting.

I think what they are doing is vision-based edge mapping . There are some comparisons with Waymo here that we should be aware of because they will affect our expectations for the future price of Tesla stock, which we will talk about shortly.

Waymo is expensive for a vehicle, a fair assessment from Elon Musk. We believe that the Tesla “unbox model” is, frankly, a car without extras: no glass roof inside, no back seat, and no glove box.

It's a screen, a flat dashboard, plastic that looks like the back of a police car, a frame you can hose down , great for use as a fleet. I mean, this is a car with almost no luxuries.

So, let's be clear about it. The non-box manufacturing process is expected to reduce the overall length of the assembly line by 50% and make it faster. We do not know how much extra speed. We know that the proven production capacity is approximately 125,000 vehicles per year for the manufacture of the "Cyber Cab".

This is the recognition Tesla has given us, and it is wonderful and will be important in a moment. Therefore, we expect the cost of " CyberCap" to be much lower. Therefore, I put a one dollar sign . It's like, you know, cheap fast food for a meal for three or maybe four dollar signs, isn't it?

It is clear that Waymo uses a full suite of sensors, lidar, vision, radar , and complete mapping of the areas in which it operates. Tesla, on the other hand, does not use that strategy. They are using a vision-based strategy, but it is a major concern for Tesla, as it is very expensive, not in the car itself, but in the cost of human mapping of complex situations.

Mapping complex situations is simply a matter of having a supervising driver, and they believe that is exactly why they updated the Full Self-Driving (FSD) software in Tesla cars.

If you are not aware of this, every time you deactivate the FSD system now, a persistent pop-up window appears, meaning it does not disappear until you make a selection.

What they want is for you to deactivate the system every time you press "Oh, I'm deactivating the system because I'm parking." Tesla doesn't pay much attention to this. It helps a little in the corner, but it's less important .

The same applies to other matters; they don't pay much attention to them either. Safety, or your critical alerts, or navigational alerts. That's what they care about . Therefore , you can press "critical ". They want to fix all those complex case scenarios. And navigation as well. It's also useful. All of these things are useful in themselves.

To be fair, parking is helpful, and navigation is helpful, but eliminating all those complex situations through critical interventions in the FSD system is extremely costly if relying solely on Tesla employees.

So, they have practically recruited every Tesla driver to deal with those complex situational scenarios. That's why I see so many people in the comments saying, "Hey, I see CyberCube cars in Houston. I see them in Texas. I see them in Vegas ." amazing.

The problem with these vehicles in other states where the mapping of complex situations is not yet complete is that Tesla maps them manually. You can see a clear steering wheel inside the vehicle in this shot from Florida.

So, I think what they are doing is deploying about 20 of these vehicles with human Tesla drivers , and they will use " CyberCab" to map the areas they want to expand into themselves.

This is an example of a vehicle in Florida. Another example is from South Florida. I believe the previous example was in Orlando. In this example as well, you can see a steering wheel here.

So, I don't think this is surprising. I don't think they're hiding this, and... they stopped that music. I don't think this is necessarily a bad thing, but the problem is that it's slow. And that's the issue.

Do I really think that the cost of employing 20 people to drive these vehicles with these steering wheels is extremely high? No, the problem is time. This is probably the biggest problem we face now in mapping complex cases.

I think we are doing well on the manufacturing side. I think we're doing well on the technology side, but only after the lengthy process of mapping the terminal states is complete . The part I really think a Tesla investor should focus on right now is that Austin took 12 months to get to nearly fully self-driving taxis , didn't it? In a vehicle without a steering wheel or pedals. That's Austin.

What you really need to see now is compress those points into three-month verification cycles for the cities. That would be ideal. Because I think we will go way past the manufacturing of Waymo's robotic taxis.

So, what we have are some estimates that we have put into a spreadsheet. Waymo reportedly had 700 robot taxis on the road in July 2024, 2,500 on the road by December 2025, and 3,700 on the road by May 2026.

I'm just completing and adding the number 1,500 here so I can get an actual graph. But this gives you a graph of the upward trend, so to speak. The Tesla Cybercab has gone from about 20 to 100, you know. These are already driverless vehicles. So, you have a steeper curve here.

It is not particularly useful, because these are very small numbers, but it highlights something very important. I believe , and this is my opinion, that the situation for Tesla is that we are now at a critical turning point regarding how quickly we can map terminal states. That's all .

I agree. Maybe they're not mapping the whole thing, they're just mapping the extreme cases, okay? It's different. Don't call them maps. Good. Drawing the extreme cases, do you know what? We will simplify things. Edge stage, okay? Tesla is at the edge stage.

What we are really looking forward to is their ability to accelerate this phase . Therefore, the transition from the edge stage to completion. This is the crucial point here for Tesla. In Austin, it took 12 months. Perhaps in South Florida, the time will decrease to eight months .

The faster this escalation occurs—that is, the time from the start of testing in Vegas, Houston, or elsewhere, to the launch of fully self-driving taxis— that will be Tesla's tipping point.

This is when things become very positive. Why ? Because they can actually manufacture much faster than Waymo. It wouldn't be unreasonable, you know, if we went here and ended up seeing Waymo reach around 4,000 to maybe 5,000, say by the end of 2027, wouldn't it? So, let's say December 31st, you know, I'll even be generous. I'll call it 2028.

Tesla might reach 100,000 cars. So, the pace of growth here will be...let's see . Let's slightly adjust the data reference. The pace of growth here will look relatively consistent, you know, a fairly steady line across the chart.

But, given the rate of growth here, let's adjust those data references. This would seem crazy. As you know , this will look exponential because you are starting from a very low base. It would literally seem crazy.

But this turning point depends entirely on how quickly they get through the preparation phase. Once we know that, then you can really assess Tesla's stock, in my opinion, more clearly.

So, if I go into analyzing my Tesla stock , I actually think I previously removed "CyberCap" as just a safety net. In my opinion, you can add it again after yesterday's event.

Yesterday’s event is a short-term negative catalyst because people will view it as a case of “buy on the rumor, sell on the news ” because they frankly failed at the event.

For example, Elon should have been there. Elon should have said exactly what I'm saying now. Good? If Elon had just given a presentation, gotten dressed, walked onto the stage, and said, "Look, we don't rely on maps. We rely on vision . It took us 12 months to do this in Texas, in Austin. We think we can do it in 8 months in Houston. And we think we can do it in 4 months in Orlando. And you know what that means? It means that every subsequent city we go into —Vegas, Denver, Utah, this one, that one—boom, boom, boom. Here's a map in the background, on the blueprint, or whatever. We can now get this stuff from setup to completion in 3 months." If he'd walked up there and said that , and then said, "That means that by the end of 2027, we could have 100,000 vehicles on the road because we've compressed the time it takes to get things ready." We are ready to go. The stock would have risen by 20% today.

Now, what does CyberCup's revenue actually look like? If we assume that this captures 10% of Uber's market share, which of course has global operations , with a profit margin of 20%, this adds perhaps $1.2 billion in operating income. This is good. It adds perhaps $50 to the share value for a 2030 valuation.

I don't think that's actually the main source of funds. Ah , the "unboxing" process ( production). I actually believe that selling CyberCab vehicles and then allowing fleet operators to run them is the most profitable option for Tesla.

I think Tesla should validate the technology and only sell it. I don't think they should be involved in the business of operating these cars. Let others bear the costs of consumption. Sell these cars. Get the money in advance. Sell them a fully autonomous driving system. Get them to subscribe to the fully self-driving service. Literally manufacture high- margin "cybercabs" . Sell the fully autonomous driving system with a high profit margin. Don't concern yourself with the nonsense of transporting people. Just check out the technology and sell that damn car. I believe this is the future.

I am now putting in my estimates, as you know, sales of 4 million vehicles here. So, I think there’s a lot going on in Tesla’s $605 2030 price target.

It requires Semi trucks to reach $3.5 billion in operating income, nearly doubling the revenue from fully autonomous driving subscriptions , and I want to see sales of 200,000 Tesla robots. I think that estimate is actually conservative by 2030.

I want to see revenues from CyberCab or robot taxis of around $1 billion. It could end up being a higher number if we sell these cars to others and actually reach that tipping point.

But we didn't get any guidance from Elon, and we know, of course, that Elon's timeframes can be a little crazy. As you know, when he says one year, it will probably take three years. That's why we're setting our estimates for 2030.

But I really think the stock will perform very well if they do what I just said. But I am not an employee of Tesla. I don't think they even want to talk to me . I really don't care. Because this could create a real opportunity for the people watching this.

If you are in South Florida, Orlando, or Houston, and you see fully autonomous CyberCab vehicles being deployed there already, you should keep an eye out for it. When did they start? When was it published?

Once that period shrinks from one year to three months, we will reach the escape velocity of robotic taxis. Until then, mapping all rare scenarios will remain an extremely time-consuming process.

And I think that's what they just went through in Austin. This is the biggest test for Tesla's stock. This is the most important thing for Tesla's stock in the future .