特斯拉的 FSD 软件功能可用且安全，自动驾驶运行中未发生重大安全事故。
逐段跳播
2019年底我刚开始在YouTube上做关于特斯拉的内容时，当时特斯拉的市值是多少？特斯拉当时价值约600亿美元。
When I first started making content about Tesla on YouTube in late 2019, what was Tesla's market cap at the time? Tesla was worth around $60 billion.
如今我们得知，Boring Company的估值已经超过特斯拉在2019年底时的三分之一，那时我开始拍着桌子说：“啊，各位，我觉得大家还没有完全理解特斯拉接下来要做什么。”
Today, we've learned the Boring Company is valued at more than a third of what Tesla was back in late 2019 when I started pounding the table going, "Ah, guys, I don't think everyone's quite understanding what Tesla's going to do."
这要么说明特斯拉在2019年底时被低估得多么离谱，
It either speaks to how incredibly undervalued Tesla was back in late 2019,
让我们看看自特斯拉Cybercap发布以来Gordon又拿出了什么新料，他无疑会解释说这是一场灾难，和/或不算数，和/或规模很小，和/或他们正在到处撞人。
Let's see what fresh material Gordon has come up with since the launch of Tesla Cybercap, which no doubt he will explain is a disaster andor doesn't count and/or is a small scale andor they're mowing people down left, right, and center.
我一直都说，特斯拉所谓“完全自动驾驶”的做法根本行不通。他曾提出，特斯拉的自动驾驶做法——顺便说一句，是纯视觉方案——行不通、不会成功，诸如此类。
And I have said all along that Tesla's approach to quote unquote full self-driving simply does not work. He has suggested that Tesla's approach, vision only, by the way, to autonomy didn't work, wouldn't work, and so on.
但在我录制这段内容时，而且想必在Gordon这次采访录制之前，特斯拉就已经在美国多个城市合法、安全地运营自动驾驶车辆了。
But as I'm recording this, and presumably prior to this interview being recorded with Gordon, Tesla was already legally safely operating autonomous vehicles in multiple cities in the United States.
他们不允许媒体进入，被允许进入的特斯拉信徒/网红必须签署保密协议，说他们不会录像，只会展示特斯拉希望他们向我们展示的、经过批准的内容。
They didn't allow media in the Tesla cultist/influencers who were allowed in had to sign NDAs um saying they wouldn't record and they would only show what the approved things that Tesla wanted them to show us.
听着，Cybercab不过是又一件硬件而已。没有新的、大规模革命性的、极具颠覆性的、对整个汽车制造流程的彻底重构，来大幅降低生产这些东西的成本。只是又一件硬件而已。
Listen, the cyber cab is is just another piece of hardware. No new massively revolutionary, enormously disruptive, complete rearchitecting of the entire automotive manufacturing process to dramatically lower the cost to produce these things. Ju just another piece of hardware.
问题在于软件，FSD行不通。它不是L4级技术。所以我猜，他开场说特斯拉的自动驾驶做法行不通、不会成功之类的话，并不是在承认自己错了，而是在为下一个论点做铺垫，也就是要告诉我们软件行不通。
The problem is the software FSD doesn't work. It's not level four technology. So I guess his opening statement about having said that Tesla's approach to autonomy wouldn't work, couldn't work, and so on wasn't him admitting he was wrong, but him setting up this next point, which is to tell us that the software doesn't work.
这款软件正在美国少数几个城市合法、安全地运行，迄今没有发生一起重大事故。
The software that's legally and safely operating in a handful of cities in the United States with not a single major incident to date.
我再重复一遍，特斯拉目前正在美国多个州、少数几个城市合法、安全地运营搭载这款软件的车辆，迄今没有发生一起重大安全关键事故，而他却声称这款软件行不通。
I repeat, Tesla is legally safely without a single major safety critical incident to date operating their vehicles running the software that he's claiming doesn't work in a handful of cities in multiple US states currently.
它仍然是L2级。所以你可以把这款软件预先打包进任何你想要的新硬件里，但现实是它行不通。回答你的问题，它安全吗？不安全。所以平均而言，一个人类
It's still level two. So you can prepackage, you know, that that software into any new hardware you want, but the reality sits that it doesn't work. To your question, is it safe? No. So on average, a human
我再次重复，完全自动驾驶的特斯拉车辆没有发生过一起安全关键事故。特斯拉发布了大量数据，显示其事故率与普通人类驾驶员相比的情况。
Once again, I repeat, there hasn't been a single safety critical incident in a fully autonomous Tesla vehicle. There's mountains of data that Tesla publishes showing the incident rate versus the average human driver.
那么，Gordon，请再多讲讲这款软件如何行不通、如何不安全，尽管我们自己这双会骗人的眼睛看到的是，这款软件不仅行得通，而且极其安全。
So, please tell us more, Gordon, about how the software doesn't work and the software is not safe, despite the fact that our own lying eyes show us that the software is not only working, but extremely safe.
到目前为止，我们了解到特斯拉的FSD行不通。它很危险，而Cybercab不过是又一件硬件而已。埃隆·马斯克去年犯了一个非常严重的错误，就是他正式推出了无人驾驶出租车，因为一旦你现在正式推出，就有了一个实实在在的公开记录，对吧？
每天你都可以去看，他们在扩张吗？他们在执行吗？答案毫无疑问、清清楚楚是否定的。他们没有。
So far, we've learned that Tesla's FSD doesn't work. It's dangerous, and the Cyber Cap is just another piece of hardware. Elon Musk made a very critical mistake last year when he officially rolled out robo taxi because when you officially roll it out now you have an actual accord of record, right? Every day you can go see are they expanding? Are they executing or not? And unequivocably clearly the answer is no. They're not.
自去年年中在奥斯汀推出一个非常小的运营区域以来，特斯拉毫无疑问没有扩大其服务。它没有在扩张。你可以自己去看。毫无疑问，我数学相当差，但我认为奥斯汀应该算一个城市。所以，他们在一个城市推出，顺便说一句，乘客座位上还有人工监督员。
since launching a very small tiny operational geoence in Austin mid last year, unequivocably Tesla hasn't expanded their service. It's not scaling. You can see for yourself. Unequivocably, I'm pretty bad at math, but I think Austin would be one city. So, they launched in one city with, by the way, human supervisors in passenger seats.
在我录制这段内容的时候，我认为他们还在达拉斯、休斯顿以及佛罗里达的几个城市运营。
And as I'm recording this, I think they're also operating in Dallas, Houston, a couple of cities in Florida.
所以，是六个城市在运营无人监督的特斯拉无人驾驶出租车。此外，他们在旧金山湾区还有安全监督员。所以算是第七个城市，但我们不把它算进去，因为那不是无人监督的。
So, six cities with unsupervised Tesla robo taxis operating. Plus, they have the safety monitors in San Francisco Bay area. So, a seventh city, but we won't count that cuz that's not unsupervised.
是的，我认为六比一大。而一是他们最初推出时所在的城市数量。六是他们目前正在运营完全无人监督的无人驾驶出租车的城市数量。
Yeah, I think six is a bigger number than one. And one was the number of cities they launched in. And six is the number of cities are now currently operating completely unsupervised robo taxis in.
而一，也就是他们最初推出的第一个城市，起初乘客座位上确实有一名人工监督员，但现在人工监督员已经没有了。严格来说，他们推出时，他们在任何地方运营的完全无人监督的无人驾驶出租车数量是零，而且只是在一个城市、配有监督员。而现在我们有六个城市是无人监督的。
Whereas one, the first city they launched in actually did have a human supervisor in the passenger seat initially, but now the human supervisor is gone. And technically when they launched zero was the number of completely unsupervised robo taxis they were operating anywhere and it was just in one city with the supervisors. And now we have six cities with unsupervised.
我新的20年特斯拉和SpaceX估值模型现已在Patreon上线，面向投资者级别及以上的支持者。
My new 20-year Tesla and SpaceX valuation model is now also live on Patreon to supporters at the investor level and above.
这个频道对 $TSLA 的历次判断
Solving The Money Problem 在这只股票上共 10 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。