TSLA 适合长期持有,其动力来自 AI/robotaxi 的进展,并受到潜在 SpaceX 合并的保护。
逐段跳播
你拿到了关于特斯拉的最新情绪数据。对于一年前买入这只股票的投资者,以及今年年初买入的投资者来说,他们感到不安。
So, you've got the latest sentiment data on Tesla. Oh , for investors who bought this stock a year ago, and for those who bought it at the beginning of this year, they are feeling uneasy.
最新的情绪数据是什么样子?他们感到偏执,是的。但那些大约6周前买入的人呢?这是一只相当有争议的股票。它激起了意见的分歧。人们爱他或恨他,就像他们爱或恨马斯克一样。
What does the latest sentiment data look like ? They feel paranoid, yes. But what about those who bought it about 6 weeks ago ? Oh, you know, that was a rather controversial stock.
I mean, it stirs up a division of opinions. People love him or hate him just as they love or hate Musk.
而且,正如你所知,它的数据非常强劲。我们有强劲的订单数字。我们有惊人的满意度数字。
Oh, and as you know, the data on it is very strong. I mean, we have strong order numbers. We have amazing satisfaction numbers .
这真的取决于你如何定义特斯拉?它是一家汽车公司吗?如果是,它的估值远高于其真实价值。市盈率是多少?比其竞争对手高出许多倍。
Oh, and you know, it really depends on how you define Tesla? Is it a car company? If so, it is valued at a much higher price than its true worth. Oh, you know, what is the price-to-earnings ratio? Many times higher than its competitors.
所以我认为没有人还以此为基础来评判它。他们在所有人工智能应用中看到了大量潜力。而这,正如你所知,可能是应用人工智能方面最好的公司之一,如果不是最好的话。
Oh, so I don't think anyone still judges it on that basis. They see a lot of potential in all artificial intelligence applications. And this, as you know, is probably one of the best , if not the best, companies in applying artificial intelligence.
大多数时候,当你谈论人工智能时,它是在你的桌面上,你在用它工作,处理文件之类的事情。这是一件现实的事情,随着完全自动驾驶、自动驾驶以及Optimus的推出。所以,这就是人工智能能做到的。
I mean, mostly, when you talk about artificial intelligence, it's on your desktop and you're working with it, processing files and things like that. This is a realistic thing, with full self-driving, autonomous driving, and Optimus being launched.
So , this is what artificial intelligence can do.
我认为这确实解释了这一点。而当我们总体上看特斯拉所做的,消费者再次喜爱它。似乎一些怀疑者讨厌它,但满意度极高,而当你审视这家汽车公司本身时,我能清楚地看到一些犹豫。
I think it really does explain that . And when we look at what Tesla does in general, consumers love it again. Oh, it seems some skeptics hate it, but satisfaction is extremely high, and when you look at the car company itself, I can clearly see some hesitation.
他们不久前有不错的交付数字,然后最近数字就不那么好了。他们已经开始在奥斯汀推出机器人出租车,我相信他们的车队中大约有45辆“cyber cab”。他们可能有600辆Model 3,但Cyber Cabs在某种程度上代表着未来。
Oh, you know, they had good delivery numbers a while ago, and then not so good numbers recently. They have started rolling out robot taxis in Austin, and I believe they have about 45 " cyber cabs" in the fleet.
They probably have 600 Model 3s, but Cyber Cabs are kind of the future.
这才是真正的关键。当你审视他们拥有的车辆数量并将其与Waymo比较时,你可以看到这里的图表,它显示了车队的规模。
This is the real key. When you look at the number of vehicles they have and compare it to Waymo, you can see the graph here, which shows the size of the fleet.
现在,那600辆车中的大多数是Model 3。那些还不是“cybercab”车辆,也就是说,那些没有方向盘的车辆。
Now, most of those 600 vehicles are Model 3s. Those are not " cybercab" vehicles yet, i.e., those that do not have a steering wheel.
但正如你所知,你可以看到Waymo在车辆数量方面取得了巨大进展,但增长才是关键。将会有巨大的增长。特斯拉将更快地生产这些车辆。
But as you know, you can see that Waymo has made tremendous progress in terms of the number of vehicles, but growth is, you know , that's the key. I mean, there will be tremendous growth. Tesla will produce these vehicles much faster.
我相信制造一辆Waymo车辆的成本是15万美元。至于“CyberCap”,它的成本是3万美元。所以,他们会大力推动它,除此之外,如果你看行驶里程数,差异相当惊人。
I believe the cost of manufacturing one Waymo vehicle is $150,000. As for the "CyberCap", it costs $30,000. So, they will push it hard, and beyond that, if you look at the number of miles traveled, the difference is quite astonishing.
这套完全自动驾驶系统已累计行驶超过140亿英里,所有这些数据都为一个人工智能引擎提供输入,使其能够做出智能决策,并学会以比人类更像人、也更安全的方式驾驶。
The fully autonomous driving system has covered more than 14 billion miles, all of which feeds an artificial intelligence engine that makes smart decisions and learns how to drive in a more human- like and safer way than humans .
因此,他们在里程上的进展令人难以置信,而且在不断增加。在我看来,这正是他们在Robotaxi和CyberCab领域优于Waymo的关键。
Therefore, their progress in mileage is incredible and constantly increasing. This is the key, in my opinion, to their superiority over Waymo in the field of robot taxis and CyberCab.
我认为这是一个非常积极的信号,因为看一个很有意思的数据点,在提供自动驾驶服务的城市里,Uber和Lyft的出行订单数量,我们发现它们正在急剧下降。
I think this is a very positive sign , because when you look at one interesting data point , which is the number of Uber and Lyft trips used in cities where self-driving is available, we find that they are declining sharply.
这太疯狂了。你可以以大约Uber或Lyft一半的成本叫到这些车辆。信心会在第一次乘坐之后建立起来,因为你会发现一切运转良好。第一次坐进一辆没有方向盘、也没有人驾驶的车时,可能会觉得有点奇怪。
你可以稍微抓住座椅两侧。但随着这种信心增长,我认为它会变得越来越自然。
It's crazy. I mean, you can actually order these vehicles for about half the cost of Uber or Lyft . Confidence will come after the first trip, as you will find that things are going well.
The first time you ride something without a steering wheel and no one driving it, it may seem a little strange . You can hold on to the sides of the seat a little. But as that confidence grows , I think it will become more and more natural .
我真心认为这对Uber和Lyft来说都是一个大问题。此外,我们还没有谈到能源这一方面,而这是一个非常强劲的方面。它正在明显增长。
I truly believe this is a big problem for both Uber and Lyft. Furthermore, we have not yet addressed the energy aspect, which is a very strong aspect. I mean, it's growing noticeably.
还有Optimus这一块,这是一个面向未来的项目。也许正是这一点让我对特斯拉最为乐观:Optimus项目。所以,他们有很多有利因素在起作用。和往常一样,一切都关乎未来,不是吗?
特斯拉15年来一直如此,就是在等待接下来会发生什么。就是等着看接下来会发生什么。
As well as the "Optimus" side , which is a project for the future. Perhaps this is what makes me most optimistic about Tesla: the " Optimus" program. So, they have a lot of good things working in their favor.
As usual, it's all about the future, isn't it ? I mean, that's how Tesla has been for 15 years, just waiting for what's to come next. Just waiting to see what comes next.
他承诺达到100分的水平,然后交付了70分的水平,而所有人原本预期的是20分的水平。他超出了预期,但并没有完全达到他所承诺的。
He promises, you know, a level of 100, then delivers a level of 70, and everyone was expecting a level of 20. He exceeds expectations, but he doesn't quite reach what he promised.
但他继续做出天马行空的承诺,我认为随着这种情况持续下去,我们看到更多这类承诺几乎成真,以及随之发生的转变,我认为特斯拉将在未来五年或十年内成为一家了不起的公司。
But he continues to make fantastical promises, and I think that as this continues and we see more of these promises almost come true and the transformations that take place, I think Tesla will become an amazing company over the next five or ten years.
它将改变很多事情。比如拼车服务、交通出行,还有,实际上在工厂里工作的机器人,以及家庭中的机器人。这会非常有意思。
It will change a lot of things. Just, you know, ride-sharing services , transportation provision, and also , you know, there are robots actually working in factories, and robots in homes. It will be really interesting.
但数据方面,我知道我有点跑题了。数据是强劲的。正如我所说,消费者需求很高,满意度也非常高。人们很喜欢它。我们有很多转化数据,人们第一次体验完全自动驾驶,不是完全自动驾驶,而是完全自动驾驶,并对此印象深刻。
But data, I know I've gone a little off- topic. The data is strong. I mean, as I said, consumers have high demand and very high satisfaction levels. People love it. We have a lot of conversion data where people are experiencing full autonomous driving for the first time, not completely autonomous driving, but full autonomous driving, and are impressed by it.
他们会开始说,要给我刚拿到驾照的儿子买一辆,或者给我年纪稍大的父亲买一辆。这些人群是完全自动驾驶的理想目标群体,而这非常自然地引向Cybertruck。
I mean, this is where they start talking about buying one for my son who just got his driver's license, or for my slightly older father. These population groups are ideal targets for fully autonomous driving, and this leads very naturally to the Cybertruck.
Landon,我有点想谈谈完全自动驾驶;他们过去十年从驾驶者那里收集的数据量呈指数级增长。这会是向前推进的关键吗,因为如你所知,监管方面会施加严格的限制?
Landon, I kind of wanted to touch on full autonomous driving; the amount of data they've collected from drivers over the past ten years has grown exponentially. Will that be the key to moving forward, since the regulatory side, as you know, will impose strict restrictions?
如果发生事故,在使用完全自动驾驶系统时,或者在其中一辆Cybertruck中,它会受到媒体的强烈审视,但它仍然比我的邻居在芝加哥街头开车安全一百倍,因为他是个糟糕的司机,不是吗?那么,这未来会成为公司的一个障碍吗?
If an accident were to occur, you know, while using the fully autonomous driving system or in one of the Cybertrucks, it would be subject to intense media scrutiny , yet it's still a hundred times safer than my neighbor driving around the streets of Chicago here because he's a terrible driver, isn't he ?
So, will this be an obstacle for the company in the future?
你知道这疯狂在哪里吗?我认为在这整个过程中,哪个政党掌权真的很重要,说起来很不幸,但我认为这就是当下的现实。我认为,如果选举走向了另一个方向,Elon Musk和他的公司现在会面临比现在多得多的审视,而我认为在目前情况下,他们获得合理听证的机会会更大,可以这么说。
Do you know what's crazy about it? I think it really matters which political party takes power during all of this, which is unfortunate to say, but I think that's the reality right now.
I think that if the election had gone in a different direction, Elon Musk and his companies would be under much more scrutiny than they are now, and I think that at the moment they would have a greater chance of getting a reasonable hearing, so to speak.
当然,这一点随时都可能发生变化,因为选举很快就要到来,所以一切都可能改变。不幸的是,他在某种程度上已经成了一个政治人物,民主党那边有人更加针对他。如果他们获得更多权力,我认为这对他和公司来说都会是个问题。
This can of course change at any time, as there are elections coming up very soon, so everything is subject to change. Unfortunately, he has become somewhat of a political figure , and there are those on the Democrats’ side who are targeting him more .
If they gain more power, I think it will be a problem for him and the company.
所以,老实说,如果从股东的角度看,我是在押注11月选举的结果。但没错,这一点至关重要。我的意思是,监管这一关你绕不过去,你说得完全对,因为这样会更安全。会安全一百倍,但涉及全自动驾驶的事故仍然会发生,无论是不是它的责任。这并不重要。
So, honestly, if you look at it from a shareholder's perspective, I'm betting on the outcome of the November election. But yes, this is essential. I mean, you can't get past the regulatory aspect, and you're absolutely right because it will be safer.
It will be a hundred times safer, but an accident involving full self-driving will still occur, whether it is at fault or not. That doesn't matter.
如果有人在使用全自动驾驶技术时发生了严重事故,所有人都会攻击这项技术。你知道,他们会无视那些每天造成各种事故的醉驾者或鲁莽驾驶者。但他们会紧盯那一起事件。因此,这可能会很困难。我不知道。
If someone is using full self-driving technology and a bad accident occurs, everyone will attack that technology. As you know , they will ignore all the drunk drivers or reckless drivers who cause all kinds of accidents every day.
But that is the incident they will focus on. Therefore, it might be difficult. I don't know .
我不想试图预测政治格局,但可以说,这确实是一个重大的未知因素。但话说回来,他一直在突破边界,不去请求许可,只是去打造伟大的东西。最终,你还是需要拿到那个批准,但如果当他们开始评估时,你已经在全自动驾驶方面积累了十亿英里的经验,那会比经验很少就起步要容易得多。
I don't want to try to predict the political landscape, but it is certainly a major unknown factor, so to speak. But again, he kept pushing the boundaries , not asking for permission, just building great things.
Ultimately , you will need to get that approval, but if you already have a billion miles of experience in fully autonomous driving when they start evaluating it, that will make things much easier than starting with very little experience .
所以,我既乐观,也现实。我明白政治格局的变化可以有多快。好,我们先把那个放一边。我们来谈谈“CyberCap”以及从这里往后的发展路径。这是针对今年年初或一年前进入这个领域的投资者吗?
这是他们应该期待的东西吗?这里是不是一个耐心的问题?
So, I am optimistic, but I am also realistic. I realize how quickly things can change in the political landscape. Okay, let's put that aside. Let's talk about "CyberCap" and the future path from here.
Is this intended for investors who entered this field at the beginning of this year or a year ago? Is this what they should be looking for? Is it a matter of patience here?
正如你指出的,我们知道他在努力实现不可能的事。比如想想SpaceX,它确实做到了这一点。所以,想想看,这里是不是只是一个耐心的问题?
We know, as you pointed out, that he is striving to achieve the impossible. It literally does that when you think about SpaceX, for example. So, when you think about it, is it just a matter of patience here?
我认为这就是耐心的问题,而且我认为作为投资者,如果你能穿越回过去上网看看10年或15年前人们在说什么。我的意思是,特斯拉的唱衰者从很早以前就存在,而他们已经连续错了15年。
I think it's about patience, and I think as an investor, if you could go back in time online to see what people were saying 10 or 15 years ago . I mean, Tesla haters have existed since the beginning of time, and they've been wrong for 15 consecutive years.
所以,不要把自己站到他们那一边。你需要从长远考虑,愿景是什么?已经取得了哪些成就?接下来是什么?我认为Cybercab及其自动驾驶出租车平台将成为公司一个非常强大的推动力。
So, don't put yourself on their side. You need to think long-term, what is the vision? What has been accomplished? What's next ? I think Cybercab and its self-driving taxi platform will be a very strong motivator for the company.
这将对Uber和Lyft的股东构成重大警示。这对公司来说将是惊人的。我认为他们将拿下几乎全部的市场份额。而且你不能忘了“Optimus”,它仍在为遥远的未来开发中。它看起来比自动驾驶汽车还要奇怪。
但一开始你不必考虑家里有一台“Optimus”。想想它在工厂、工作环境或餐厅厨房里执行一些任务。
This will serve as a major warning to Uber and Lyft shareholders . It would be amazing for the company. I think they will capture almost all of that market share. And you can't forget " Optimus," which is still in development for the distant future.
It looks even stranger than a self- driving car. But you don't have to think about having an "Optimus" in your house at first. Think of it in a factory, a work environment, or a restaurant kitchen to perform some tasks.
我的意思是,有很多地方一开始它出现都不会显得奇怪。它可以简单地完成所需的工作。所以,一旦它启动并按计划运行,我认为它的目标价大约是每台30,000美元。
I mean, there are many places where it can be found without it seeming strange at first. He can simply do the job that is required. So, once it gets up and running and performs as planned, I think it's targeted at around $30,000 per unit .
我相信所有这些都将创造富足和财富,对经济大有裨益,也是特斯拉股东的一场非常强劲的胜利。但没错,你必须要有耐心。
I believe all of this will create abundance and wealth, and will be great for the economy, and a very strong win for Tesla shareholders. But yes, you have to be patient.
回想过去,很久以前,我们说过要造出比内燃机更快的电动汽车,对吧?我们要造出能自动驾驶的电动汽车。所有这些在当时看来都不可能,而现在它们真的在发生。
Think back to the past, a long time ago, when we said we would build an electric vehicle faster than an internal combustion engine , right? We will build an electric vehicle that can drive itself.
All these things seemed impossible at the time, and now they are actually happening.
所以,你知道,你只需要有一些信念,再坚持久一点,但就目前而言,只需看看成就记录。这就是我如此乐观的原因;这不过是成就与愿景的记录。
So, you know, you just have to have some faith and hold on a little longer, but for now, just look at the record of achievements . That's why I'm so optimistic; it's simply a record of achievements and vision.
所以,你知道,我不想听起来像是我被过度打动了,但这是我们永久持有的Likefolio公司之一。我们只有少数几家这样的公司,它们是我们相信你可以买入并永久持有的公司。
So, you know , I don't want to sound like I'm being overly impressed, but this is one of those Likefolio companies we're keeping forever. We only have a few of them, and they are companies that we believe you can buy and keep forever.
另一点是,SpaceX 就在那里,拥有数十亿美元的资金。始终存在合并的可能性。所以,这或许有些夸张,但更像是特斯拉股东手中持有一个卖出期权,就在那里,行权价未知,一旦股价跌得足够多,与 SpaceX 的合并就会发生。
The other point is that you know, you have SpaceX there with billions of dollars. There is always that possibility of merging. So, this may be an exaggeration, but it's more like Tesla shareholders have a sell option, right there at an unknown strike price , where if the price drops enough, a merger with SpaceX will happen .
因此,这始终被视为一种保护。我不认为它会处在 300 的水平,可能会更低,但我知道拥有它是件好事,即你还有另一家由同一批人控制的公司,未来可能会合并。
Therefore, this is always considered a form of protection. I don't think it will be at the 300 level, it may be lower, but I know it's a good thing to have it, that you have this other company controlled by the same people and that could merge in the future.
这个频道对 $TSLA 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 5 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。