当前正是买入 TSLA 的时机，FSD 采用率正以 55% 的增速加快。
逐段跳播
新视频，传奇亿万富翁投资者Ron Baron谈论特斯拉。
New video with legendary billionaire investor Ron Baron talking Tesla.
以及特斯拉的50亿美元。所以，这两只股票的管理资产规模超过300亿美元。Baron Capital旗下的基金都归在Ron Baron的公司伞下，合计起来，它们分别是第一大和第二大持仓，SpaceX和特斯拉。
And and $5 billion in Tesla. So, that's more than $30 billion um in assets under management in those two stocks. the Baron Capital funds all under Ron Baron's company umbrella, collectively, they're number one and two largest position, SpaceX and Tesla.
SpaceX股票和特斯拉股票也是我仓位最轻的两只，虽然顺序和Baron Capital不一样。不过，实际上它们是我仅有的两只持仓，所以它们当然是我的前两大持仓。
SpaceX stock and Tesla stock also my two lightest holdings, although not in the same order as Baron Capital. Although, actually they're my only two holdings, so of course they're my top two.
看看你接下来的13只股票。这些都是我们认识很久、你也跟我们谈过的公司。Hyatt、MSCI、Spotify、Charles Schwab。但接下来这13只股票加在一起，你的持仓只有大约155亿美元。
Look at your next 13 stocks. And it's companies we've known for a long time that you've talked to us about. Hyatt, MSCI, uh Spotify, Charles Schwab. But all of those next 13 stocks combined, your holdings are only about 15 and 1/2 billion dollars.
所以，就你所做的事情而言，你现在实际上就是Elon Musk的代理。这在很大程度上是因为你买入的股票涨得太猛了。价格。
So, you are really an Elon Musk proxy at this point um in terms of what you've done. A lot of that's been because the shares you've bought have risen so dramatically. The price.
同样值得考虑的是，SpaceX和特斯拉远远是Baron基金中合计最大的两个持仓。至少在SpaceX和特斯拉上，我认为Baron Capital的理念是让赢家继续跑。
It's also worth considering the fact that SpaceX and Tesla are far and away the two largest positions in the Baron funds in total. At least when it comes to SpaceX and Tesla, I think the Baron Capital philosophy is let your winners ride.
跟我们谈谈你怎么看特斯拉目前的状况，以及SpaceX目前的状况。你一直是长期的拥护者。我只想给你讲一个关于特斯拉的小故事。他们造了一款车，Model S，然后停产了，他们又多造了250辆特别的。价格是之前那些的两倍，我买了其中一辆。
Tell us what you think about where things stand with Tesla, where things stand with SpaceX. You've been a long-time booster. I I just want to give you one little story about Tesla.
And so, uh they made a car, uh the Model S, and they stopped making it and they had 250 more that they made that were special. Cost twice as much as the ones they had before, and I bought one of them.
而且所有车都有自动驾驶。如果你想要，每月付100美元。
And uh all the cars have self-driving. If you want it, you pay $100 a month.
我们在East Hampton有一辆，它是我拥有过的最喜欢的车。我们季度报告封面上就有它的车头照片。周日早上我睡过头了。我说：“天哪，我一看，一个人都没有。”于是我快速冲了个澡，跑到车库里我的车那儿。
我不记得地址了。我输入了我们要去的餐厅的名字。然后它显示自动驾驶，它打开我的车库门，倒着开出来，绕过我的车道，那车道真的很长，打开物业前面的门，开出去，开到街上一点，左右看看，驶上街道，左转，开过两个街区，右转，开过两个街区，然后左转，我甚至都没在注意。
左转，然后突然急刹。我说：“天哪，我是不是撞坏什么了？”然后我往外看，我盯着车头前方，有一只大鸭子正带着六只小鸭子从路上走过。它停下来等鸭子。然后鸭子过去了，车又启动，开到Main Street，右转，开进停车场，正好停在“为鸭子停车”那家餐厅旁边。这车太不可思议了。
And uh uh so, we have one out in East Hampton, and it is my favorite car I've ever had. picture of the front of our quarterly report. And I overslept on Sunday morning. So, I said, "Oh my god, every I'm looking and no one's here."
So, I uh take a quick shower, run out to my car that's in the garage. Uh I didn't remember the address. I pushed the name of the store we're going of the restaurant we're going to.
Uh then it says self-driving, it opens up my garage door, pulls out backwards, drives around my driveway, which is really long, opens up the gate in front of the property, opens it up, drives to the you know, a little bit more in the street, looks both ways, pulls onto the street, makes a left-hand turn, goes for two blocks, makes a right-hand turn, goes for two blocks, then makes a left-hand turn, and I'm not even paying attention.
Makes a left-hand turn, and all of a sudden stops short. I say, "Oh my god, did I break something?" And then I look out, and I'm watching the front of the car, and there's a large duck walking across the road with six little ducklings behind it.
It stopped for the ducks. And then the ducks pass, the car starts up again, goes to Main Street, makes a right, goes into the parking lot, and parks right next to the restaurant that was at Stop for Ducks. This car is unbelievable.
这是个很棒的故事。当然，这不是第一次。我看过很多正是这样的视频。特斯拉自己在一些演示中也展示过，为鸭子、鹅，什么都有停下来。
That's a great story. Of course, not the first time. I've seen plenty of videos of exactly this. Tesla's featured them themselves in some of their presentations stopping for ducks, geese, you name it.
我儿子们从纽约开到这里。你在纽约开车。你必须试试这辆车。如果你想要，我给你弄一辆试试。每个人都会想要的。他说，如果你到某个时候还没有这个，那就像在开马车一样。
My sons have driven from New York to here. You drive in New York. You have to try this car. I'm getting you a car to try if you want it. Everyone's going to want it. And he says if it's like driving a horse and buggy if you don't have this at some point.
但有人想让我买一辆，当他们造了250辆的时候。现在已经没有了。但在市场上，它们现在的二手售价远高于我实际付的钱。我付的是S型的两倍。所以，是的，我永远不会卖掉它。
But but there's there's uh there's want me to get one When they made 250 of them that. There's no more. But in the market, they're now selling for used worth a lot more than I actually paid for it.
And it was I paid twice what the S's are. So, uh yeah, I'm never selling it.
那会是多少？200？216、170，差不多这样。它卖了多少？它卖了80。你应该在不注意的情况下开它吗？我以为规则在技术上仍然是你应该……
What would What would that be? 200? 2 160, 170, something like that. what it went for? It went for 80. Are you supposed to be Are you supposed to be driving it without paying attention?
I thought the rules were still technically that you were supposed to be
如果它发出抖动的声音，你就握住方向盘，重新开始驾驶。但你其实并不需要。然后在Hamptons夜间驾驶，天很黑，没有灯，它看得比你多。是的，比你强得多。
and you And if it um makes a shaking sound, you pick up the wheel and you start driving again. But you don't really need it. And then And driving at night in the Hamptons, it's dark and there's not lights and It sees more than you do. Yeah, much better than you do.
我们确实会讨论所有这些问题，但也要谈谈人们现在如何看待和估值特斯拉。而埃隆·马斯克是否会把特斯拉并入 SpaceX、将其收购，这是一个巨大的疑问。
we do, let let's let's talk about all of those things, but let's also talk about what people are looking and valuing Tesla at right now. And And there's a huge question as to whether Elon Musk is going to wrap Tesla into SpaceX, buy it.
我认为这件事已经没有任何悬念了。它肯定会被提出来。唯一真正的问题是，是否有足够多的特斯拉股东投票批准，让它真正发生。
I don't think there's any outstanding question about this. It's definitely going to be proposed. The only real question is will enough Tesla shareholders vote to approve this that it actually happens.
在最近的 All-in Summit 上错过这些的人，埃隆·马斯克被直截了当地问到：“那么，你为什么还拥有两家公司？”他对这个问题的回答告诉了你所有你需要知道的事情。这不是会不会被提交给投资者投票的问题，而是什么时候的问题。
Those who missed recently at the All-in Summit, Elon Musk was asked point-blank, "So, why do you still have two companies?" His answer to that question tells you everything you need to know.
It's not a matter of if, but when this gets put to investors to vote on.
昨天在一个播客上甚至被问到了这个问题。我想他和 Gwynne 昨天或前天上了那个节目。他基本上没有否定这个想法。
was even asked that in a podcast yesterday. I think that he and Gwynne were on yesterday or the day before. And he kind of didn't knock the idea down.
作为一个拥有价值 250 亿美元 SpaceX 和超过 50 亿美元特斯拉的人，你怎么看？对于 SpaceX 出价收购特斯拉并将其并入，你怎么看？
How How do you feel as somebody who owns, you know, $25 billion worth of SpaceX and more than $5 billion worth of Tesla? How do you feel about SpaceX making a bid for Tesla and wrapping it in?
我告诉过他，我给了他理由，说明为什么我认为这是好事，以及为什么我认为这不是好事。我说，你知道，我不是做决定的人，你才是那个人。无论你决定什么更好，我都会支持。所以，只要他说什么更好，我就支持。我给了他理由，说明为什么这既好又不好。
Um I I told him that I gave him reasons why I thought it was good and why I thought it wasn't. And And I said that, you know, I'm not someone who makes the decision, and you're the guy.
And whatever you decide is better is what I'm going to support. And so, anything he says is better, I'm supporting. And I gave him reasons why both it's good and why it's not good.
到如今，当时的预测是其他汽车制造商将开始蚕食特斯拉在美国的市场份额。而现在，就在几天前，数据显示特斯拉的市场份额再次上升，因为很多
by now, the prediction was inroads would be occurring with the other auto makers into Tesla's market share in the United States. Now, just a couple days ago, it came out Tesla's market share is increasing again because a lot
想想都觉得有点疯狂，但许多这些所谓的竞争对手，我们曾被告知会杀死特斯拉，你知道，竞争来了，等着看大玩家登场吧，等着看大型汽车公司推出他们引人注目的电动汽车，然后特斯拉就完蛋了。
结果，在大量计划和当时听起来荒谬的公开声明目标之后，至少在美国，几乎所有所谓的竞争对手，福特、通用，随便挑一家公司，都试了试水，大谈特谈特斯拉，暗示他们昨天会有 400 万亿种不同的电动汽车车型，然后就像荷马退进树篱的表情包一样，放弃了他们的计划，缩减规模，干脆放弃，老实说这是正确的做法，但如果他们一开始就不尝试进军电动汽车，本可以省下很多钱。
Kind of wild to think, but many of these so-called competitors that we were told was going to kill Tesla, you know, the competition's coming, just wait till the big boys arrive, wait till the big automotive companies make their compelling electric vehicles, and then Tesla's cooked.
It turns out after lots of plans and publicly stated goals that sounded ridiculous at the time, at least in the United States, just about everyone of the so-called competitors, Ford, GM, pick your company, dipped their toes in the water, talked a lot of about Tesla, suggested they'd have 400 trillion different models of electric vehicle yesterday, and have since done the whole Homer backing into the hedge meme, abandoning their plans, scaling back, and just giving the up, which honestly was the right thing to do, but they could have saved a lot of money by not attempting to pursue electric vehicles in the first place.
现在，有一个警告。他们尝试的时候已经太晚了。早在 2012 年，当特斯拉的 Model S 发布并几乎赢得了汽车行业的所有奖项时，那一刻，传统汽车公司的所有领导者都应该说：“天哪，这些东西是可能的。
它们可以很棒。我们需要追求。我们需要全力以赴，否则我们就完蛋了。”相反，他们在大约十年里什么都没做，然后在 2020 年左右开始恐慌，几乎不采取任何行动。那时已经太晚了，但他们没有意识到。
我猜他们对一切都反应迟钝。所以，他们投入了数百亿、数百亿、数百亿美元，试图在电动汽车领域与特斯拉竞争，现在他们全都放弃了。这就是为什么特斯拉的“市场份额”在美国奇迹般地再次增长，尽管有所有这些所谓的竞争。
Now, here's a caveat. They were already too late trying. Back in 2012, when Tesla's Model S was released and won literally every award ever in the automotive industry, that was the moment all leaders at legacy auto company should have said, "Holy these things are possible.
They can be amazing. We need to pursue. We need to go all in, otherwise we're cooked." Instead, they didn't do for about a decade, then started panicking around 2020 or so, taking almost no action.
At that point, it was already too late, but they hadn't realized that. I guess they're slow to realize everything. So, they poured tens and tens and tens of billions of dollars into attempting to compete with Tesla in electric vehicles, and now they're all just giving up.
This is why Tesla's {quote} and {unquote} market share is miraculously growing again in the US, despite all of the so-called competition.
但是，所有传统制造商不会都投入电动汽车。所以，突然之间就只是……而要买特斯拉，你可能不……其他的需要……人们需要买它们只是为了转向电动汽车。而特斯拉，你只是想拥有一辆特斯拉。
But, all the legacy makers are not going to go in, fall in on on the EV. So, suddenly it's just And to buy a Tesla, you may not The other ones need People need to buy them just to migrate to EV. With a Tesla, you just want to own a Tesla.
他们损失了数十亿美元，其他的……他们只是试图走捷径。
They lost billions of dollars, other And they just tried to do shortcuts.
特斯拉在欧洲的市场份额，令人难以置信。在世界各地，都令人难以置信。到处都一样。所以，他们是最好的。但是，你可能不想要一辆电动汽车。你可能……你可能想要一辆特斯拉。
The Tesla market share in the market share in in Europe, it's incredible. And everywhere in the world, it's incredible. Everywhere. So, they're the best. But, you might not want an EV. You might You might want a Tesla.
我不想在特斯拉上花太多时间，但我认为特斯拉现在就是买入这只股票的时候。所有这些 FSD 正在流行起来，它会越来越大、越来越大、越来越大，这将推动……你知道，他们现在有十亿……一百四十万人在使用这个驾驶功能，并且整体同比增长 55%，而且每个……
55% 的新用户是购买带有自动驾驶功能的人，它会无处不在。它更安全。
I don't want to spend too much time on Tesla, but I think Tesla is the time to buy the stock is now. All this FSD is is catching on, and it's going to be bigger and bigger and bigger, and this is going to drive you know, they have a billion a million four people now are on this driving and growing 55% overall increasing year and and everyone 55% of the new people that are getting it or buying this with the with the self drive and it's going to be everywhere. It's safer.
更多，如果你认为现在是时候，还是你认为你过度暴露了，或者至少已经暴露得我投资了 300 亿美元。
more if you think this is the time or do you think you're overexposed or at least as exposed as I have 30 billion dollars invested.
是的，[笑声] 但那是 25 和 5 更高。嗯，那已经够了。但就个人而言，最大的……那挺有趣的。300 亿美元的特斯拉股票。我认为那也够了。
Yeah, [laughter] but it's 25 and five higher. Um, that's that's enough. But personally, the biggest That's pretty funny. 30 billion dollars of Tesla stock. I think that's enough, too.
SpaceX 和特斯拉在他们的基金中拥有如此巨大仓位的原因，并不是因为他们一路买入这些仓位。只是他们买得很重，而这些仓位增长得非常惊人。
The reason SpaceX and Tesla have such enormous positions in their funds wasn't because they bought those positions all the way up. It's just they bought heavy and the positions grew phenomenally.
而 Ron 刚刚说，他认为现在是买入特斯拉股票的时候。或者，如果你恰好持有几百亿美元的特斯拉股票，也许你已经拥有足够多了，也许他接下来只会建议继续持有。而无论如何，我正是这么做的。
And Ron just said that he believes that now is the time to be buying Tesla stock. Or if you happen to hold a few tens of billions of dollars of Tesla stock, maybe you've already got enough, maybe he would then just suggest continue to hold.
And for what it's worth, I am doing exactly that. The FSD take rate in the United States last quarter on all new Tesla vehicles sold was over 50% was 55% exactly. And this is before it's on supervised.
I remind you that FSD supervised is still not available in most countries on Earth. It does have an existing fleet of about 10 million vehicles out there. Imagine what happens if FSD supervised gets approved in country after country after country.
More people obviously will now subscribe and as it becomes more capable, the take rate will increase on new vehicles plus existing owners. There'll be a step change increase in adoption everywhere that it goes from supervised to unsupervised.
And at the same time this is happening they're also scaling their cyber caps. So just quietly I think Ron might have a bit of a point about where Tesla's headed over the next half decade or so.
暂无中文转述，仅英文原句可核对。
Investments I have are uh SpaceX. Um which is about $5 billion and then a billion and a half Personally? Personally. A billion and a half in Tesla and uh about a billion eight in our mutual funds and uh which is pretty cool considering that 1970 my net worth was minus $15,000 and I didn't have enough credit to buy a telephone.
Interesting. He just told the size of the positions in SpaceX which is significantly more than his Tesla holdings. This is personal not Baron Capital's but his own personal holdings.
He's got a load more SpaceX than he does Tesla. But the Baron mutual fund, his own product, isn't the number one holding. Ron just disclosed $8.3 billion in positions, $1.5 billion in Tesla stock, $1.8 billion in the Baron mutual fund, and $5 billion in SpaceX stock.
That makes SpaceX stock alone about 60% by weight. I'm not including the additional SpaceX stock held in the Baron mutual fund. Incredible. For what it's worth I'd like my stock portfolio, if I had a magic wand at least, to be somewhere around 69% SpaceX stock and 42% Tesla.
My new 20-year Tesla and SpaceX valuation model is now also live on Patreon to supporters at the investor level and above.
这个频道对 $TSLA 的历次判断
Solving The Money Problem 在这只股票上共 14 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。