凭借更低的成本、更快的扩张速度以及人工智能优势,Tesla 的 CyberCab 将主导 robotaxi 市场,令竞争对手无法持续竞争。
逐段跳播
我必须说,我不知道当CyberCab推出后,Waymo将如何竞争。为什么房间里最聪明的人似乎都一致认同Tesla CyberCab会成功?
I must say, I don't know how Waymo will compete when the CyberCab is launched . Why do the smartest people in the room all seem to agree on the success of the Tesla Cyber Cup?
似乎都一致认同这样一个未来:Tesla CyberCab将横扫自动驾驶出租车市场,占据很大份额,并在价格和性能上占据主导地位。
all seem to agree on a future in which Tesla CyberCab will sweep the self- driving taxi market, capture a large share, and dominate in terms of price and performance.
Tesla宣布已扩大其CyberCab车辆在德克萨斯州的推广。他们刚刚为其自动驾驶出租车服务注册了79辆Model Y车辆。
Tesla has announced that it has expanded the rollout of its Cyber Cab vehicles in Texas. They have just registered 79 Model Y vehicles for their self-driving taxi service.
Tesla官方的robotaxi账号——孩子们肯定会为此兴奋——发帖称,编号67的CyberCab车辆已加入奥斯汀的车队。
Tesla's official robotaxi account, which kids will surely be excited about, posted that CyberCab vehicle number 67 has joined Austin's fleet.
显而易见的下一步当然是再增加两辆CyberCab汽车,为什么不呢?结果你猜怎么着,突发新闻,Tesla刚刚又向其robotaxi车队增加了两辆CyberCab车辆,使总数达到69辆。
The obvious next step would certainly be to add two more CyberCab cars, and why not? And what do you know, breaking news, Tesla has just added two more CyberCab vehicles to its robotaxi fleet, bringing the total to 69.
这开始看起来越来越不像一次实验,而更像一支真正的车队。仅在拉斯维加斯一地,Tesla最近表示将于明年部署2500辆CyberCab车辆。
This is starting to look more, you know, less like an experiment and more like a real fleet. In Las Vegas alone, Tesla recently said it will deploy 2,500 CyberCab vehicles next year.
Tesla官方的长期目标是尽快让一百万辆robotaxi车辆投入商业运营。如果做一下估算,Tesla的网约车收入很可能达到约一千亿美元。
Tesla’s official long- term goal is to get one million robotaxi vehicles in commercial operations as quickly as possible. If you do the estimations , Tesla's ride-sharing revenue is likely to reach around one hundred billion dollars.
放在背景中看,这大致相当于Tesla目前整个业务的规模。然而,robotaxi的利润很可能要高得多,因为它主要依赖软件即服务,而不是销售低利润率的硬件,比如笨重的电池和车辆。
To put that in context, this represents roughly the size of Tesla's entire business right now. However, robotaxi's profits are likely to be much higher given that it relies primarily on software as a service rather than sales of small-margin hardware, such as bulky batteries and vehicles.
我们在这里快速看一段视频,只是为了提醒大家CyberTrack有多棒。你已经知道它长什么样、有多棒了。绝对出色。是的,非常酷的设计。这是一个漂亮的设计。而且它在金色下看起来完美。
Let's take a quick look at a video here just to remind people how awesome CyberTrack is. You already know what it looks like and how great it is. Absolutely fantastic. Yes, a very cool design.
It's a beautiful design. And it looks perfect in gold.
在Gigafactory,你还记得那辆被拆解开来、让你能看到内部所有零件的那辆吗?这是一个非常漂亮可爱的设计。它的活动部件也不多,所以你能看出他们将如何以惊人的规模来制造它。
And at the Gigafactory, do you remember the one that was disassembled so you could see all the parts inside? It is a very beautiful and lovely design. It also doesn't have many moving parts, so you can see how they'll manufacture it on an incredible scale .
仅从消费者的角度来看,我所有开新款完全自动驾驶Model Y汽车的朋友都说:“哇,这改变了生活。”“多亏了完全自动驾驶,我 literally 想去哪就去哪。”
Learn, just from a consumer's perspective, all my friends who drive the new fully self-driving Model Y cars say, " Wow, this is life-changing ." "I literally go anywhere thanks to full self-driving."
Model Y的等待名单现在大约要3个月。但从今天起三个月后,它将完全售罄。顺便说一句,根据汽车类别的不同,Tesla的多款汽车及其类别在美国全年已经完全售罄。
The waiting list is now about 3 months for the Model Y. But three months from today, it will be completely sold out. By the way, depending on the car category, a number of Tesla cars and their categories have already been completely sold out throughout the year in the United States.
正如我们在Tesla最近的财报电话会议上听到的,完全自动驾驶在美国新车销售中55%的采用率清楚地表明,完全自动驾驶显著增加了购买Tesla汽车的人数。
As we heard in Tesla’s recent earnings call, the 55% adoption rate of Full Self-Driving in new car sales in the United States clearly demonstrates that Full Self-Driving significantly increases the number of people who buy Tesla cars.
关键不在于汽车本身,而在于能够完成所有工作的软件。
It's not about the car itself, but about the software that can do all the work.
想象一下,当完全自主、无需监督的驾驶合法化时会发生什么。它很有吸引力,你会想一直和它对话,人工智能将无处不在。
Just imagine what will happen when it becomes legal to have fully autonomous, unsupervised driving . Attractive, you'll want to talk to it all the time, artificial intelligence will be everywhere.
所以,你可能会想加入这个等候名单,因为你会想和你的人工智能对话,继续你的交谈、工作和娱乐。在天花板上,它将会非常惊艳。
So, you might want to join this waiting list because you will want to talk to your artificial intelligence and continue your conversation, work, and fun. On the ceiling, you know, it will be amazing.
顺便说一下,关于这个话题还有一个快速更新:"Groc"机器人现在正被整合进特斯拉汽车。这意味着你可以真正地做到这一点。在你的特斯拉里继续与你的"Groc"机器人一起工作。
And you, by the way, another quick update on this topic: the "Groc" robot is now being integrated into Tesla cars. This means that you can literally do exactly that. Continue working with your "Groc" robots in your Tesla.
所以,如果外面有创业者,当Cybertruck上市时,买100辆,把它们投入商业运营,你就会拥有一支为你创造收入的Cybertruck车队。我认为这将是一门不可思议的生意。
So, if there are entrepreneurs out there when Cybertrucks are launched, buy 100 of them, put them into business, and you will have a fleet of Cybertrucks generating income for you. I think this will be an incredible business.
我要说,我很喜欢我的Tesla Model Y 2026 Juniper Launch Series。它改变了生活。完全自动驾驶非常棒。这辆车的制造质量非常出色。
I will say that I love my Tesla Model Y 2026 Juniper Launch Series. It's life-changing. Full self-driving is amazing. The car's build quality is amazing.
我迫不及待地想让cyber taxi以及一般的robot taxi来到波士顿。
I can't wait for cyber taxis and robot taxis in general to arrive in Boston.
这是Peter提出的一个很好的观点。地球上任何一个不主动为更安全的人类驾驶自动驾驶汽车铺平道路的地方——也就是更少的事故、更少的伤害、更少的永久性残疾、更少的死亡——不仅没有为技术奇点做好准备,而且如果你有选择的话,那里可能根本无法居住。
That's an excellent point from Peter. Any place on Earth that does not proactively pave the way for safer, human-driven autonomous vehicles— meaning fewer accidents, fewer injuries, fewer permanent disabilities, and fewer deaths—is not only unprepared for the technological singularity, but may also be unlivable if you have the choice.
这种管理上的落后程度,即官员们做出阻碍救命技术的决定,可能会促使我计划尽快搬走,完全秘密地进行。我实际上被迫卖掉我心爱的开了10年的Tesla Model S,去买一辆Model Y,因为我需要完全自动驾驶系统。
This level of backwardness in management, where officials are making decisions that prevent life-saving technologies , may push me to plan to move as soon as possible, in complete secrecy.
I am actually forced to sell my beloved Tesla Model S of 10 years to get a Model Y because I need the fully autonomous driving system.
首先,这里有三个小点。其中之一是从买车转向驾驶自动驾驶、能产生收入的里程。每自动驾驶、能产生收入的里程的成本是多少,对吧?如果你能以合理的成本做到这一点,并根据安全水平进行调整,那真是了不起。
First, there are three small things here. One of them is the shift from buying a car to driving self-driving, income-generating miles. What is the cost per self-driving, income-generating mile, right ?
If you can do that at a reasonable cost and adjusted for the level of security, that's truly tremendous.
车队增长将减少等待时间,改善用户体验,并增加出行次数,产生更多数据,这将形成Alex所说的那个内循环。所以我认为这一切都有一些了不起的好处。
Fleet growth will reduce waiting times, improve the user experience, and increase the number of trips , generating more data, which will create that inner loop that Alex talks about.
So I think there are some amazing benefits to all of this.
它正在彻底改变。他完全正确,而这个馈送循环的关键条件是有能力快速且大规模地扩展你的自动驾驶车队。再说一次,保险、清洁、充电以及所有这些东西,我认为你们会把加油站变成自动驾驶汽车清洁中心,这类事情将会开始发生。
It is completely changing. He is absolutely right, and the essential condition for this feeder cycle is the ability to expand your fleet of autonomous vehicles quickly and massively.
Again, insurance, cleaning, charging and all that stuff, I think you're going to turn gas stations into self- driving car cleaning centers, and that sort of thing is going to start happening.
但对我来说,最重要的是我下了一个赌注。10年前我走上舞台说,我的孩子永远不会拿到驾照,而我只有一年时间把这件事押上去,之后他无论如何都会决定去考驾照,只是为了摆脱他的父母,但他不必这么做,我会证明我说的话是真的。
But for me, the biggest thing is that I made a bet. I went on stage 10 years ago and said that my child would never get a driver's license, and I only have one year to put this cyber cap on the line before he decides to get the license anyway just to get away from his parents, but he won't have to and I'll prove my words true.
因此,重要的是不要失去你作为一个期货人的信誉。是的,你知道,这里关于富足的故事是,地球上最贫穷的人将乘坐自动驾驶电动汽车出行。是的,它将成为最便宜的交通方式。
Therefore, it is important not to lose your credibility as a futuresman . Yes, you know, the story of abundance here is that the poorest people on the planet will be getting around in self-driving electric vehicles.
Yes, it will be the cheapest means of transportation.
想想老年人,不是吗?还有那些行动不便的人。突然间市场变得不可思议地神奇,为那些今天无法做到的人群提供了巨大的能力。巨大。
Think about the elderly, don't you ? And people who cannot move around easily. Suddenly the market becomes incredibly magical, offering enormous capabilities to segments of the population that cannot do so today. Enormous.
是的,我会在这里展示这张图片。我很喜欢它;它只是把Cybertruck和Waymo做了对比。这太棒了。我大概一两周前看到它在X平台上交易。天才。如果你只是在听,现在看看屏幕上的它。
相信我,她值得。这里的图片展示了特斯拉的"Cyber Cab",设计非常流畅、流线型且美观。而在它上面是一个巨大的大脑。
Yes, I will display this image here. I love it; it simply compares Cybertruck and Waymo. This is amazing. I saw it trading on the X platform a week or two ago, maybe. genius. If you're just listening, take a look at it on the screen now .
Believe me, she deserves it. The image here shows Tesla's "Cyber Cab" with a very sleek, streamlined, and beautiful design . And on top of it is a huge brain.
这是一个非常美妙的比喻。它说明了特斯拉的自动驾驶方式与任何其他试图向消费者提供自动驾驶汽车服务的公司之间的差异。
This is a very beautiful metaphor . It illustrates the differences between Tesla's approach to self-driving and any other company attempting to offer self-driving cars as a service to consumers.
我得说,我不知道当CyberCab推出后,Waymo将如何竞争。
And I know I have to say, I don't know how Waymo will compete when CyberCab launches.
我得说,我不知道当CyberCab推出后,Waymo将如何竞争。Peter,我同意你的看法。我仍在等待有人向我解释,Waymo在不按下几个神奇按钮的情况下将如何竞争,一个按钮就能赶上特斯拉的神奇。
Ah, and I know I have to say, I don't know how Waymo will compete when CyberCab launches. Okay, Peter, I agree with you . I'm still waiting for someone to explain to me how Waymo will compete without having to press several magic buttons, a button to catch up with Tesla's magic.
他们最好的赌注,我不是在开玩笑,是假设他们将从服务中获利,不是以大规模盈利运营为目标,而是以某种方式在几个小区域中开辟一个非常狭窄的利基市场,作为更耀眼的CyberCap服务的替代品。
每英里收取高昂的费用,并证明为什么消费者应该为某种等效的服务支付更多。
Their best bet , and I'm not joking, is to assume they will make a profit from the service, not aiming for profitable operation on a large scale, but somehow carving out a very narrow niche in a few small pockets as an alternative to the more glamorous CyberCap service .
Imposing a hefty cost per mile, and justifying why consumers should pay more for a service that is somehow equivalent.
人们通过广告被洗脑,我不知道。他们最好的赌注是以某种方式诱骗消费者在特斯拉CyberCab车辆运营的同一区域使用等效服务时支付高得多的每英里成本。
People are brainwashed through advertising, I don't know. Their best bet is to somehow trick consumers into paying much higher costs per mile for using an equivalent service in the same areas where Tesla's CyberCab cars operate.
和Peter一样,我不知道Waymo将如何随着时间的推移与特斯拉的CyberCab可持续且盈利地竞争。
Like Peter, I don't know how Waymo will be able to compete sustainably and profitably with Tesla's CyberCab over time.
CyberCap依赖八个摄像头。Elon再次解释说,如果人类可以用一只或两只眼睛驾驶,那么汽车应该能够仅用摄像头做到这一点。
CyberCap relies on eight cameras. Once again, Elon explained that if humans can drive with one or two eyes, then a car should be able to do so with just cameras.
我认为这张大脑图像的重点是CyberCap严重依赖人工智能。是的,我完全同意。我刚意识到我有点好笑。似乎任何拥有特斯拉大小头脑的人都能理解CyberCab的广泛影响。以及其他机器人公司如何处于不稳定的境地。
I think the point of this brain image is that CyberCap relies heavily on artificial intelligence. Yes, I can't agree more than that. I just realized that I'm kind of funny . It seems that anyone with a mind the size of Tesla's understands the wide-ranging implications of CyberCab.
And how other robotics companies are in a precarious position.
但在像我这样的人中,拥有Waymo大小的大脑,豌豆脑,最多是平均智力,不像那些知道特斯拉将横扫一切的天才,我不知道它将如何与Waymo竞争。有些人认为特斯拉将占据主导地位。
But among people like me, with brains the size of a Waymo, pea brains, average intelligence at best , unlike the geniuses who know that Tesla will sweep , I don't know how it will compete with Waymo. Some people think Tesla will dominate.
其他人说不,只需按下神奇的“特斯拉追赶”按钮,你也能以具有竞争力的每英里价格和类似的利润率提供自动驾驶服务,而特斯拉尽管拥有巨大的成本优势和比你更快的扩张能力,仍在竞争。
Others say no, just press the magic Tesla catch button and you too will be able to offer self-driving service at a competitive price per mile and a similar profit margin, while Tesla competes despite its enormous cost advantages and ability to expand faster than you.
每个人都将在这个非常小的市场中获得同等大小的份额,这个市场肯定不会比当前的网约车市场增长更多,因为可负担的交通服务并不会戏剧性地增加人们使用该服务的里程数。
Everyone will get an equal-sized slice of this very small market that certainly won't grow any more than the current ridesharing market, because it's not as if affordable transportation services are going to dramatically increase the number of miles people use the service.
所以,总之,所有那些似乎对像Waymo这样的公司能否与特斯拉扩展CyberCab部署的能力竞争持怀疑态度的天才们。
So , in conclusion, all those geniuses who seem skeptical about the ability of companies like Waymo to compete with Tesla's expansion into CyberCab deployment.
任何普通人,如果像那些智力巨人一样认为特斯拉巨大的成本优势、其通用自动驾驶能力、其比任何人都更快更便宜地大规模生产车辆的能力,以及因此其持续的每英里运营成本显著低于其他任何人,任何认为这是一个巨大优势、像Waymo这样的公司无法随着时间的推移可持续地与之竞争的人,绝对是错误的,或者只是一个特斯拉狂热分子和Elon的绝望捍卫者,因为他们没有意识到有一个神奇的按钮,每个人都可以按下以追赶。
And any average person who thinks, like the intellectual giants out there, that Tesla’s huge cost advantage, its general self-driving capability, its ability to mass-produce vehicles faster and cheaper than anyone else, and therefore its ongoing operating costs per mile are significantly lower than anyone else’s, anyone who thinks that this is a huge advantage that companies like Waymo will not be able to compete with sustainably over time, is definitely wrong and/or just a Tesla fanatic and a desperate defender of Elon, because they do not realize that there is a magic button that everyone can press to catch up.
这个频道对 $TSLA 的历次判断
Solving The Money Problem 在这只股票上共 17 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。