TSM 值得买入；AI 需求支撑创纪录的利润率，而地缘政治风险带来估值折价，意味着未来 12-18 个月有 43% 的上行空间。

The emergence and spread of proxy artificial intelligence was an additional incentive for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), which was already experiencing a surge in demand as a result of the accelerators being used in these data centers.

As a result, Taiwan Semiconductor Company is increasing its investments, adding an additional $100 billion in Arizona to build several manufacturing facilities to meet this growing demand.

But does all this make TSMC shares an investment opportunity to buy, or is it too late and has the share price risen enough to offset all this increased market demand for the company?

Therefore, the growing demand for artificial intelligence creates an additional growth avenue for Taiwan Semiconductor Company. Revenues reached $143 billion over the past 12 months, and you can see the slope of that curve rising over the years, accelerating especially since the emergence of ChatGBT, and it is now likely to see an even greater increase in the steepness of that curve as a result of the momentum of proxy AI.

This is because proxy AI creates a demand for CPUs, memory, and storage components that did not receive the same level of focus before the advent of proxy AI. The focus was actually on graphics processing units (GPUs) and accelerators, which were generating a lot of demand; A large part of semiconductor manufacturing was directed towards those categories.

But now, a new layer has been added on top of that demand layer, creating a situation that is difficult for Taiwan Semiconductor Company to meet.

That is why they need to invest heavily in increasing production capacity because they are already fully booked. This creates additional demand on top of a situation that was already suffering from demand exceeding the company's supply capacity.

TSMC generates this demand at premium prices. Although they did not raise prices significantly, they are still benefiting from increased utilization of production capacity to achieve maximum operating profit margins at record levels that the company has not reached at any time during the past decade.

The figure of 55.84% was the last recorded figure during the past twelve months. You can see that this percentage is the highest in the company's history over the past decade.

However, the management team does not expect these margins to continue rising. But they've been saying that for over a year.

As mentioned in the introduction, TSM is investing in Arizona to expand its manufacturing capabilities because its customers want more geopolitical diversification. Therefore, companies wanted TSM to expand its availability to more countries and regions, which is why the company is investing in the United States, in addition to the billions of dollars in semiconductor grants the company received, which were announced under the previous administration to expand manufacturing capacity.

Then, of course, there is the threat of tariffs under the current administration, which further encourages companies to invest in manufacturing within the United States. Therefore, all these reasons are what drive investment in Arizona.

However, the downside is that the management team stated that the cost of production in Arizona is significantly higher than the cost of production in Taiwan. Therefore, the management team expects profit margins to decline in the future.

But they have been saying this for over a year now, and we have not yet seen that decline in margins because their capacity utilization rate has been so high, offsetting those expected declines in profit margins.

However, the management team told investors: "Don't get too excited. Don't be overconfident. We still expect lower profit margins as a result of those international investments."

Now that TSMC needs to invest billions, tens of billions of dollars to meet the growing demand for its semiconductor manufacturing, I wanted to know how effectively this company allocates capital.

Judging by their performance over the past decade, I would say that they have performed well to very well, and certainly above their weighted average cost of capital at almost every moment over the past decade.

So, when you see a business like this, as an investor, you can feel at ease if they need to scale up capital investment quickly because they have been very good at it.

This is something they have been doing effectively not just during the greater part of the past decade. I could go back three decades and we would see a similar performance.

TSMC's excellent performance is no secret to investors. Its share price has risen by more than 48% since the beginning of 2026. Of course, I am happy about that. I have been rating TSMC stock as a great buying opportunity all year.

Due to the high share price, TSMC is trading near its highest point when measured by the price-to-earnings ratio, compared to where it was during the past two years. But the overall level of absolute evaluation is not that expensive.

In fact, the stock is trading at a discount compared to the average stock in the S&P 500 index.

What is the reason for that? That geopolitical concern that I highlighted in the introduction.

If TSM were an American company, it would be trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio exceeding 30. Since that is not the case, this is why the stock is trading at such a large discount.

Therefore, that risk premium, and those geopolitical risks, are already built into TSM's valuation.

I have also updated my assessment of the company's discounted cash flows to get another perspective on the price. Therefore, I calculated a fair value of $639, and compared to today's market price of $445, I expect a 43% increase for TSM shares over the next 12 to 18 months.

So, to answer the question, do I still think that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company's stock represents a buying opportunity? I think so.

This rating was last updated on August 31st with a medium level of satisfaction. Today, I will repeat this rating, but I will raise my level of conviction regarding this recommendation from medium to high because of the developments I have seen in recent weeks, and because the company’s valuation compared to its prospects seems to me much more attractive than it did a few months ago.