VICI具有吸引力的基本面（收益率/估值），但面临关于租户透明度的特定风险。
逐段跳播
最后，我们有 VICI Properties，目前该领域争议最大的 REIT 之一。在过去一年中，它下跌了 19.4%，年初至今下跌了 5.5%，但请记住，这是在其它 REIT 表现非常好的背景下，VNQ（Vanguard 房地产指数）实际上跑赢了标普 500。所以，相对于同行，它表现不佳。
And then, finally, we have VICI Properties, one of the most highly debated REITs in the space right now. In the last year, it's down by 19.4% year-to-date, down by 5.5%, but keep in mind, that's in the middle of other REITs performing very well, with VNQ, the Vanguard Real Estate Index, actually outperforming the S&P 500. So, it's not doing very well relative to its peers.
但是，我们可以看到它现在的收益率约为 6.83%，所以它即将达到 7% 的股息收益率。现在以这些价格交易，使其处于最低估值倍数，即过去 5 年中最低的价格与 AFFO 每股之比，仅为 10.59，而平均值约为 14。
所以估值倍数大幅下降，通常当这种情况发生时，意味着公司不再真正增长其 AFFO 每股，或者股息可能开始面临风险。
But, what we can see is it's now yielding around 6.83% so it's coming up on a 7% dividend yield. Now trading at these prices puts them at their lowest valuation multiple, the lowest price to AFFO per share multiple that it's had in the last 5 years sitting at just 10.59 when the average is closer to about 14. So that's a substantial drop in the valuation multiple and typically when that happens what it means is the company's no longer really growing their AFFO per share or maybe the dividend starting to come at risk.
但只需快速浏览一下 AFFO 每股的情况以及预计将继续发生的情况，再快速浏览一下股息指标，就能迅速揭示对于这个 REIT 来说情况并非如此。AFFO 每股正以强劲的速度增长，预计将继续如此，而且股息覆盖率非常好，派息率接近 75% 左右。
But just a quick glance at what's going on and what's projected to continue to happen with AFFO per share and just a quick glance at the dividend metrics quickly reveals that that's simply not the case for this REIT. AFFO per share is growing at a strong rate projected to continue to do so and the dividend is very well covered with the payout ratio sitting close to around 75%.
那么，这只REIT到底怎么了？如果你真的想深入了解，就在几周前，在我的播客频道Mispriced Podcast上，我采访了VICI Properties的首席执行官，我们深入探讨了VICI的潜在担忧以及目前的估值情况。
So what's going on with this REIT? Well if you really want to take a deep dive into it just a couple weeks ago on the Mispriced Podcast, my podcast channel, I actually interviewed the CEO of VICI Properties and we dug deep into the potential concerns with VICI and what the valuation looks like right now.
而现实是，这主要归结为一点。是的，预计的每股AFFO增长应该不错，估值倍数看起来也不错，收益率极具吸引力，但真正的问题在于，他们的前两大租户将私有化，这对我们个人散户投资者来说，将剥夺我们了解他们租金覆盖率实际状况的能力。
And the reality is it primarily boils down to one thing. Yes, projected AFFO per share growth should be good, the valuation multiple looks good and the yield is extremely attractive but the real issue comes down to the fact their top two tenants are going private which for us individual retail investors is going to take away the ability for us to know what their rent coverage actually looks like.
以前，这些租户在财务上是公开的，我们可以看到他们支付租金有多容易。我们即将失去对前两大租户的这种了解能力，而每当未来现金流的可预测性降低时，投资者总是愿意支付较低的估值倍数。所以，这无疑是VICI Properties目前的情况。
Previously those tenants were open books financially speaking, we could see how easily they can make their rent payments. We're about to lose that ability for potentially the top two tenants and anytime there's less predictability of future cash flows investors are always going to be willing to pay a lower valuation multiple as a result. So that's undoubtedly the case for VICI Properties right now.
最终，我认为这是主要问题。我知道其他人指出了拉斯维加斯游客量的潜在下降，但现实是，当你查看数据时，2026年迄今为止情况已经真正稳定下来，而且我们在很多类别中实际上看到了正的年累计增长，即使是该市的总游客量也是如此。
Ultimately, I think that's the main issue. I know other people have pointed out potential declines in traffic to Las Vegas, but the reality is when you look at the numbers, things have really stabilized so far in 2026, and we're actually seeing positive year-to-date growth in a lot of categories, even with total visitors to the city.
而现实是，就拉斯维加斯的游客量而言，VICI并不一定需要每年都增长。它所要做的就是从租户那里收取租金。所以，只有游客总量大幅下降，VICI才会真正受到影响。
And the reality is when it comes Las Vegas visitor volume, VICI doesn't necessarily need growth every single year. All it has to do is collect rent from its tenants. So, it would take a substantial decline in overall visitor volume for VICI really to be impacted.
所以，如果我们仅从估值角度来看，让我们转到我们的股息贴现模型，看看我们在这里处理的是什么。现在，有趣的是，VICI指导的每股AFFO增长率大约为3.3%到3.4%，至少在未来一年内。
所以，让我们把这个数字调低，假设他们在未来几年只实现3%的增长。突然之间，我们可以看到公允价值约为每股33美元，这意味着较当前价格有24.4%的上涨空间。
So again, if we just look at them from a valuation perspective, let's jump over to our dividend discount model and see exactly what we're working with here. Now again, what's interesting is what VICI has guided towards is around 3.3, 3.4% AFFO per share growth at least over the next year. So, let's pull this back and assume they only achieve 3% over the next few years. All of a sudden, we can see fair value is about $33 per share, which implies 24.4% upside from current prices.
所以，显然，那将是显著的上涨空间。而且说实话，这与分析师的平均目标价31.54美元相差不远，意味着大约19%的上涨空间。
So obviously, that would be significant upside. And to be honest, that's not too far off from what the average analyst price target is at $31.54, implying around 19% upside.
所以，现实是，从基本面来看，VICI实际上仍然表现良好。一些潜在的担忧，比如拉斯维加斯的游客量，对VICI来说目前真的不是什么大问题。
So the reality is that fundamentally speaking, VICI is actually still doing very well. Some of the potential concerns like traffic to Las Vegas really aren't that big of a deal for VICI right now.
最终，问题归结为对前两大租户财务状况失去可见性的担忧，而这两大租户构成了他们租金收入的大部分。所以，确实存在一定的租户集中度。
Ultimately, it comes down to concerns over losing visibility into the financials of their top two tenants, which for reference do make up the vast majority of their rent roll. So, there's certainly some tenant concentration.
这个频道对 $VICI 的历次判断
Dividendology 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。