Dividendology 对 $VICI 的判断变化
最后，我们有 VICI Properties，目前该领域争议最大的 REIT 之一。在过去一年中，它下跌了 19.4%，年初至今下跌了 5.5%，但请记住，这是在其它 REIT 表现非常好的背景下，VNQ（Vanguard 房地产指数）实际上跑赢了标普 500。所以，相对于同行，它表现不佳。
And then, finally, we have VICI Properties, one of the most highly debated REITs in the space right now. In the last year, it's down by 19.4% year-to-date, down by 5.5%, but keep in mind, that's in the middle of other REITs performing very well, with VNQ, the Vanguard Real Estate Index, actually outperforming the S&P 500. So, it's not doing very well relative to its peers.
但是，我们可以看到它现在的收益率约为 6.83%，所以它即将达到 7% 的股息收益率。现在以这些价格交易，使其处于最低估值倍数，即过去 5 年中最低的价格与 AFFO 每股之比，仅为 10.59，而平均值约为 14。
所以估值倍数大幅下降，通常当这种情况发生时，意味着公司不再真正增长其 AFFO 每股，或者股息可能开始面临风险。
But, what we can see is it's now yielding around 6.83% so it's coming up on a 7% dividend yield. Now trading at these prices puts them at their lowest valuation multiple, the lowest price to AFFO per share multiple that it's had in the last 5 years sitting at just 10.59 when the average is closer to about 14. So that's a substantial drop in the valuation multiple and typically when that happens what it means is the company's no longer really growing their AFFO per share or maybe the dividend starting to come at risk.
但只需快速浏览一下 AFFO 每股的情况以及预计将继续发生的情况，再快速浏览一下股息指标，就能迅速揭示对于这个 REIT 来说情况并非如此。AFFO 每股正以强劲的速度增长，预计将继续如此，而且股息覆盖率非常好，派息率接近 75% 左右。
But just a quick glance at what's going on and what's projected to continue to happen with AFFO per share and just a quick glance at the dividend metrics quickly reveals that that's simply not the case for this REIT. AFFO per share is growing at a strong rate projected to continue to do so and the dividend is very well covered with the payout ratio sitting close to around 75%.
那么，这只REIT到底怎么了？如果你真的想深入了解，就在几周前，在我的播客频道Mispriced Podcast上，我采访了VICI Properties的首席执行官，我们深入探讨了VICI的潜在担忧以及目前的估值情况。
So what's going on with this REIT? Well if you really want to take a deep dive into it just a couple weeks ago on the Mispriced Podcast, my podcast channel, I actually interviewed the CEO of VICI Properties and we dug deep into the potential concerns with VICI and what the valuation looks like right now.
而现实是，这主要归结为一点。是的，预计的每股AFFO增长应该不错，估值倍数看起来也不错，收益率极具吸引力，但真正的问题在于，他们的前两大租户将私有化，这对我们个人散户投资者来说，将剥夺我们了解他们租金覆盖率实际状况的能力。
And the reality is it primarily boils down to one thing. Yes, projected AFFO per share growth should be good, the valuation multiple looks good and the yield is extremely attractive but the real issue comes down to the fact their top two tenants are going private which for us individual retail investors is going to take away the ability for us to know what their rent coverage actually looks like.
以前，这些租户在财务上是公开的，我们可以看到他们支付租金有多容易。我们即将失去对前两大租户的这种了解能力，而每当未来现金流的可预测性降低时，投资者总是愿意支付较低的估值倍数。所以，这无疑是VICI Properties目前的情况。
Previously those tenants were open books financially speaking, we could see how easily they can make their rent payments. We're about to lose that ability for potentially the top two tenants and anytime there's less predictability of future cash flows investors are always going to be willing to pay a lower valuation multiple as a result. So that's undoubtedly the case for VICI Properties right now.
最终，我认为这是主要问题。我知道其他人指出了拉斯维加斯游客量的潜在下降，但现实是，当你查看数据时，2026年迄今为止情况已经真正稳定下来，而且我们在很多类别中实际上看到了正的年累计增长，即使是该市的总游客量也是如此。
Ultimately, I think that's the main issue. I know other people have pointed out potential declines in traffic to Las Vegas, but the reality is when you look at the numbers, things have really stabilized so far in 2026, and we're actually seeing positive year-to-date growth in a lot of categories, even with total visitors to the city.
而现实是，就拉斯维加斯的游客量而言，VICI并不一定需要每年都增长。它所要做的就是从租户那里收取租金。所以，只有游客总量大幅下降，VICI才会真正受到影响。
And the reality is when it comes Las Vegas visitor volume, VICI doesn't necessarily need growth every single year. All it has to do is collect rent from its tenants. So, it would take a substantial decline in overall visitor volume for VICI really to be impacted.
所以，如果我们仅从估值角度来看，让我们转到我们的股息贴现模型，看看我们在这里处理的是什么。现在，有趣的是，VICI指导的每股AFFO增长率大约为3.3%到3.4%，至少在未来一年内。
所以，让我们把这个数字调低，假设他们在未来几年只实现3%的增长。突然之间，我们可以看到公允价值约为每股33美元，这意味着较当前价格有24.4%的上涨空间。
So again, if we just look at them from a valuation perspective, let's jump over to our dividend discount model and see exactly what we're working with here. Now again, what's interesting is what VICI has guided towards is around 3.3, 3.4% AFFO per share growth at least over the next year. So, let's pull this back and assume they only achieve 3% over the next few years. All of a sudden, we can see fair value is about $33 per share, which implies 24.4% upside from current prices.
所以，显然，那将是显著的上涨空间。而且说实话，这与分析师的平均目标价31.54美元相差不远，意味着大约19%的上涨空间。
So obviously, that would be significant upside. And to be honest, that's not too far off from what the average analyst price target is at $31.54, implying around 19% upside.
所以，现实是，从基本面来看，VICI实际上仍然表现良好。一些潜在的担忧，比如拉斯维加斯的游客量，对VICI来说目前真的不是什么大问题。
So the reality is that fundamentally speaking, VICI is actually still doing very well. Some of the potential concerns like traffic to Las Vegas really aren't that big of a deal for VICI right now.
最终，问题归结为对前两大租户财务状况失去可见性的担忧，而这两大租户构成了他们租金收入的大部分。所以，确实存在一定的租户集中度。
Ultimately, it comes down to concerns over losing visibility into the financials of their top two tenants, which for reference do make up the vast majority of their rent roll. So, there's certainly some tenant concentration.
现在我们来到了目前最有趣的投资案例之一，那就是VICI Properties，股票代码VICI，过去一年下跌20%，年初至今下跌7.29%，交易价格为每股26美元，正好处于52周低点。
And now we get to what is perhaps one of the most interesting investment cases right now, and that's VICI Properties, stock ticker VICI, down 20% in the last year, year-to-date down by 7.29% trading at $26 a share, right at their 52-week low.
但是，看看5年图表，现在下跌了约12%。当然，这还不包括那段时间支付的股息，这将给他们带来正的总回报，但即使在这些价格下，他们的收益率接近7%，这肯定比历史平均水平高不少。这实际上是公司整个历史上见过的最高收益率，除了2020年。
But, look at the 5-year chart, now down by about 12%. Now, of course, that's not including the dividends paid out during that time, which would give them a total positive return, which would give them a positive total return, but even at these prices, they're trading close to around a 7% yield, which is certainly quite a bit higher than the historic average. The highest yield really they've seen in the company's entire history, with the exception of 2020.
那么，VICI发生了什么？好吧，很快，如果你不知道，我上周实际上采访了CEO，并获得了关于VICI股票的一些惊人见解。如果你还没看过那次采访，一定要看看。一定要在YouTube上的Mispriced Podcast上查看。
这是你在互联网上能看到的最好的VICI股票分析。我会在描述和置顶评论中留下链接。
So, what's going on with VICI? Well, real quick, if you aren't aware, I actually interviewed the CEO last week and got some incredible insights into VICI stock. If you haven't watched that interview, be sure to check out Be sure to check it out on the Mispriced Podcast here on YouTube. It's the best breakdown of VICI stock that you'll see on the internet. I'll leave a link to it in the description and in the pinned comment.
但是，关于VICI，你现在必须理解几个关键要点。如果你不熟悉，请记住他们租金收入的大部分。是的，这是一个REIT。他们的租金收入来自拉斯维加斯。事实上，他们的前两大租户占他们租金收入的70%。所以，显然存在一些客户集中风险。
But, there's a couple of key takeaways you have to understand about VICI right now. Now, if you aren't familiar, keep in mind the vast majority of their rent roll. Yes, this is a REIT. Their rent roll comes from Las Vegas. In fact, their top two tenants make up 70% of their rent roll. So, obviously, there is some customer concentration risk.
但这里有个真正的好消息。我们现在可以看到调整后的运营资金，这是REITs内在价值的最终衡量标准，它告诉你股息是否可持续，调整后的每股运营资金目前轻松覆盖了这些股息支付。所以，股息看起来覆盖得很好。派息率大约在75%。
But here's the really good news. What we can see right now is adjusted funds from operations, which is the ultimate measure of intrinsic value for REITs, and it tells you whether or not the dividend sustainable, adjusted funds from operations per share is easily covering those dividend payments right now. So, the dividend looks very well covered. The payout ratio is sitting at about 75%.
根据管理层的指引，调整后的运营资金应该会在接下来的一年里继续增长约3.4%。那么，这告诉我们什么？如果他们每股调整后运营资金增长约3%，而他们的派息率目前与约75%的目标一致，那么假设我们应该看到约3%的股息增长。
And from what management is guiding towards adjusted funds from operation should continue to grow at about 3.4% over the next year. So, what does that tell us? Well, if they're growing adjusted funds from operations per share at about 3%, and their payout ratio is currently in line with their target of about 75%, then hypothetically, we should see dividend growth of around 3% as well.
这很有趣，因为有了这些信息，我们可以反推出一个公允价值。所以，如果我们跳到我们的估值表，看看我们的股息贴现模型，事情会开始变得更有趣。如果他们真的能在未来以3%的速度增长股息，你可以看到公允价值是每股33美元，意味着从当前价格有约27%的上涨空间。
Now, that's interesting because with that information, we can back into a fair value. So, if we jump over to our valuation sheet and look at our dividend discount model, this is where things will start to get a bit more interesting. If they can actually grow those dividends at 3% moving forward, you can see fair value is $33 a share implying around 27% upside from its current prices.
那么，为什么会这样？为什么市场现在如此错误定价这只股票？好吧，最终归结为一件事。因为在播客中，我们讨论了市场可能存在的三个担忧。拉斯维加斯的客流量，在线游戏的兴起，还有他们的两个租户，凯撒和MGM。
So, why is this the case? Why is the market mispricing this stock by so much right now? Well, ultimately, it boils down to one thing. Because on the podcast, we discussed three potential concerns the market has. Traffic to Las Vegas, the rise of online gaming, but also their two tenants, Caesars and MGM.
他们的CEO指出，到目前为止，2026年拉斯维加斯的客流量已经稳定。最终，除非我们看到客流量急剧下降，否则VICI将继续收取租金。至于在线游戏的兴起，他表示似乎也不是威胁。
Their CEO pointed out that traffic to Las Vegas had stabilized so far in 2026. And ultimately, unless we see a drastic decline in traffic, VICI's going to continue to collect rent. Now, the rise of online gaming, he stated, doesn't seem to be a threat as well.
但这里是我潜在的担忧。他们的前两大租户可能会被私有化。那么，为什么这对散户投资者如此重要？因为以前当这些是上市公司时，我们可以看到他们的财务状况。我们可以访问他们的公开数据，我们可以知道他们支付租金有多容易。突然间，散户投资者将无法获得这些信息。
But here's where my potential concern was. Their two top tenants are likely going to be taken private. Now, why is that so important to note for retail investors? Well, because previously when those were public companies, we could see their financials. We had access to their public data, and we could know how easily they were able to make their rent payments. All of a sudden, retail investors aren't going to have access to that information.
所以，记住，我之前在频道上多次说过，估值倍数主要由两件事驱动：公司盈利增长的速度，或者在这种情况下每股AFFO，以及未来现金流的可预测性。最终，对VICI来说，基本面没有改变。
然而，未来现金流的可预测性已经大大降低，因为他们的两个最大租户可能会私有化，因此，我们对未来现金流的可预测性没有那么多了。我们不知道他们的租金覆盖率会是什么样子。所以，自然，市场会给予它较低的估值倍数。
So, remember, I've stated many times on the channel before, valuation multiples are primarily driven by two things: the rate at which companies are growing earnings, or in this case AFFO per share, and how predictable future cash flows are. Ultimately, nothing has changed for VICI, fundamentally speaking. However, the predictability of future cash flows has been diminished greatly because their two largest tenants are likely going private, and as a result, we don't have as much predictability when it comes to future cash flows. We don't know what their rent coverage ratios are going to look like. So, naturally, the market assigns it a lower valuation multiple.
但美妙之处在于，在这些价格下，你现在可以从一个似乎正在增长每股AFFO的REIT锁定约6.7%的收益率，并且预计将继续以健康的速度增长，这意味着你将继续看到股息增长。
But, the beauty of this is at these prices, you can now lock in a yield of around 6.7% from a REIT that appears to be growing AFFO per share, and is projected to continue to do so at a healthy rate, meaning you'll continue to see dividend growth.
所以，再次，如果你想更深入地了解这个REIT和这个机会，一定要看看播客，我会在描述中链接。但完全透明地说，VICI是我几个月前在我的投资组合中增加了更多股份的股票。
So, again, if you want a much deeper dive into this REIT and this opportunity, be sure to check out the podcast, which I'll link down in the description. But, complete transparency, VICI is a stock a few months ago I added more shares of to my portfolio.