VICI 的抛售被夸大；尽管股息增长可能放缓，当前估值仍提供 11-20% 的上行空间。
逐段跳播
现在，我们来看看这次让很多人震惊的股息上调。Vichy Properties的股息上调幅度为2.2%。为什么这次股息上调如此有意思？因为它低于管理层此前给出的指引。有意思的是，这次股息覆盖得非常好。
它正好处在管理层的目标派息率上。所以，我们确实需要问这个问题：为什么这次股息上调低于我们的预期？这是一个非常重要的问题，我们会加以讨论。
Now, we come to the dividend hike that shocked a lot of people. We have Vichy Properties with a dividend increase of 2.2%. Why is this such an interesting dividend increase? Well, it's below what management had been previously guiding towards.
Now, what's interesting about this is the dividend is very well covered. It's right at management's target payout ratio. So, we do need to ask the question, why was this dividend hike lower than we expected? It's a very important question that we address.
那么，先考虑几件事。Vichi目前的起始收益率为7.41%。基本上，这是我见过的最高收益率之一，除了2020年崩盘时。过去一年里，该股下跌了24.26%。它正好在52周低点交易。
在这些价格下，我们可以看到Vichy Properties正以过去5年最低的估值倍数、最低的股价与AFO倍数交易，大约为9.98倍。
Well, to start, let's take a couple of things into consideration. The starting yield for Vichi is now sitting at 7.41%. Basically, one of the highest yields I've ever had with the exception of the 2020 crash.
In the last year now, the stock is down by 24.26%. It's trading right at a 52- week low. And at these prices, we can see Vichy Properties is trading at its lowest valuation multiple, lowest price to AFO multiple again in the last 5 years at about 9.98X.
那么，Vichi到底怎么了？同样，先来回答为什么他们只把股息上调2.2%。我前几天在X上谈过这个，也做了一个深度分析视频，但这真的只可能意味着几种不同情况。第一，每股AFO指引将被下调。
说实话，我不认为会是这样。我认为会是第二或第三种。
So, what's going on with Vichi? Well, to start again, let's address why would they only hike the dividend by 2.2%. I was talking about this on X the other day and I also did a deep dive video, but really it could only mean a few different things.
One, AFO per share guidance will be revised lower. To be honest, I don't think this is the case. I think it'll be either number two or number three.
第二种可能是他们正在降低目标AFO派息率，这未必是坏事。所以基本上我们需要从数字角度来理解这一点。如果Vichi的目标派息率大约为70%到75%，他们每股AFF以大约3.3%的速度增长，而他们把股息提高的幅度低于这一水平。
那么这就会降低派息率。他们为什么要这样做？我们可以考虑几种不同情况。但第一，我们必须明白利率正在走高。为什么这对REITs重要？因为REITs主要有两种筹集资本的方式。他们可以发行债务，这意味着他们将承担更多利息费用。
或者第二，他们也可以发行股票。现在，这就是为什么这对Vichi有意思。Vichi发行了大量股票，就像过去几年许多REITs在利率上升、债务吸引力下降时做的那样。但由于Vichi的股价在过去一年里下跌了这么多，突然之间，发行股票不再有吸引力，而承担债务其实也没有那么有吸引力。
那么，他们能做什么？他们能做的是保留更多资本，以便在内部为增长提供资金，这样就不必承担债务，也不必发行股票。这就能很好地解释为什么他们只把股息提高了大约2.2%。同样，我完全不认为这是坏事。我认为这实际上非常明智。
Number two would be that they're lowering their target AFO payout ratio, which is not necessarily a bad thing. So basically we need to understand this from a numbers perspective.
If Vichi is targeting a roughly 70 to 75% payout ratio, they're growing AFF over per share at around 3.3% and they raise the dividend by a rate below that. Then that's going to lower the payout ratio.
Why would they do this? Well, there's a few different things we could take into consideration. But number one, we have to understand that interest rates are going higher. Why is that important for REITs?
Well, REITs have two ways that they can primarily raise capital. They can issue debt, which means they'll take on more interest rate expense. Or number two, they can also issue stock.
Now, here's why this is interesting for Vichi. Vich's issued a lot of stock, as a lot of REITs have over the last few years with interest rates higher, making debt less attractive.
But because Vichi's stock price has fallen so much really in the last year, all of a sudden, issuing stock isn't attractive and taking on debt isn't really that attractive either.
So, what can they do? Well, what they can do is retain more capital so that they can fund growth internally, so they don't have to take on debt, so they don't have to issue stock.
That would make a lot of sense as to why they only raise the dividend by about 2.2%. Again, I don't think that's a bad thing at all. I think it's actually very wise.
不过，第三种可能是管理层预计2026年后每股AFO增长将放缓，并基于其长期展望来设定股息增长。现在，这可能有几种不同原因，但最终当我们看分析师预测时，每股AFO预计将继续以健康速度增长，轻松覆盖那些大额股息支付。
但这里的前提是资产负债表看起来如何？我们为什么要谈资产负债表？因为Vichy实际上拥有投资级质量的资产负债表。他们处在目标杠杆率之内。然而，99%的债务是固定利率。是的，这是非常好的事情。
但我们可以看到债务开始到期。它结构良好，但随着利率上升，他们将不得不以更高利率为这些债务再融资，这最终会增加他们的利息费用。如果我们看到这种情况持续，长期来看会拖累每股AFO。
如果发生这种情况，我们很可能又会看到长期股息增长放缓。所以，也许这就是基于其长期展望的股息增长。
However, number three would be that management expects AFO share growth to slow after 2026 and is setting dividend growth based on its longerterm outlook. Now, there's a few different reasons as to why this could be the case, but ultimately when we look at analyst projections, AFO per share is projected to continue to grow at a healthy rate, easily covering those large dividend payments.
But the caveat to this is what does the balance sheet look like? Why are we talking about the balance sheet? Because Vichy actually has a in investment grade quality balance sheet.
They're within their target leverage ratio. However, 99% of debt is fixed rate. Yes, that's a very good thing. But we can see debt starting to become mature. It is well laded, but as we have higher rates, they're going to have to refinance this debt at higher rates, which will ultimately increase their interest expense.
And if we see that continue, it'll pull back AFO per share over the long term. And if that happens, again, we'll likely see slower dividend growth over the long term. So again, maybe this is dividend growth based on its longerterm outlook.
但同样，这是一种情景：如果我们单纯从股息贴现模型的角度来看Vichi，我们会跳到估值表，假设Vichi的股息增长确实大幅放缓。也许他们未来只以2.5%的速度增长股息。较当前价格仍有20%的上行空间。
如果一路降到2%，你仍然看到大约11%的上行空间。所以，Vichy的现实是，这轮抛售看起来确实被夸大了。我会密切关注未来股息会发生什么，但目前每股AFO继续以健康速度增长。如果你想更深入了解Vichi，尤其是其租户情况，一定要看看我几天前的视频。
But again, it's a scenario where if we simply look at Vichi through the lens of a dividend discount model, we'll jump down to our valuation sheet and let's just assume that Vichi's dividend growth does slow down substantially.
Maybe they only grow the dividend moving forward at 2.5%. There's still 20% upside from current prices. If it's all the way down to 2%, you're still looking at about 11% upside.
So, the reality with Vichy is this sell-off does look overstated. I would watch closely what happens with the dividend moving forward, but right now AFO per share continues to grow at a healthy rate.
Be sure to check out my video from a few days ago if you want a deeper dive into Vichi in particular with its tenants.
这个频道对 $VICI 的历次判断
Dividendology 在这只股票上共 3 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。