$VLO

VLO 处于超买状态;技术面暗示将下跌至 $350。

看跌他说的是几周内
《Valero Stalls At $400: The Level That Sends It To $350》
Verified Investing发布 2026-09-14 · 7 段内容
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7 段内容
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但我们正在看的这只股票是 Valero。现在,让我缩小图表,向你展示我究竟是如何在这张图上绘制并跟踪技术走势的。你可以看到,我这里有两条平行通道。第一条是蓝色平行通道,从 2020 年 10 月一路开始,将价格一直限制到这里,直到今年 3 月。

But this stock we're looking at is on Valero. Now, let me back out to show you really how I've been drawing uh the progress and monitoring the progress technically on this chart.

So, you can see here I've got two parallels. The first one's the blue parallel started all the way back in October of 2020 that contained price all the way up here until March of this year.

如果你们还记得,大约在 2 月底、3 月初,美国入侵了委内瑞拉,然后我们袭击了伊朗。随后显然随着对伊朗的大规模袭击,石油成本出现了爆炸式的上涨。但 Valero 已经做好了准备,能够真正从中受益,因为其炼油厂已经可以处理来自委内瑞拉的原油。

美国已经获得的很多原油也是如此。所以 VLOO 在图上持续走高。

And if you guys recall, right around the end of February, beginning of March, the United States invaded Venezuela and then we attacked Iran. And then obviously with the big Iran attack, there has been an explosion as far as increase in cost of oil.

But Valero has staged itself to really benefit as their refineries can already accommodate the crude coming from Venezuela. Much that we already um as far as the United States is already um uh acquired.

So VLOO has just continued to push up on the charts.

现在,为了判断下一个阻力位会在哪里,我启动了一条平行通道,并在价格突破、回撤、反弹之后,把它画在之前那条平行通道的价格走势之内,就像我在《trading the close》中讲到的那样。

Now what I did to gauge where this next level of resistance would be, I started a parallel and I drew it within the price action on the previous parallel after price had broken out, retraced and bounced much like I go through on trading the close.

总之,回到对这轮正在发生的反弹的分析。我们突破了那条平行通道,然后回撤,此后又涨了回来。甚至注意这里在 50% 区域,我们停顿、回撤、突破、再次回撤,然后反弹。正如我描述的那样,各位,这些情况一遍又一遍地发生,说明我们正在走高。

Anyway, back to the analysis on this bounce that's occurring. So, we bounced through that parallel and then retraced and has since come back up. Even notice here on the 50% area, we paused, retraced, broke out, retraced again, and then bounced.

Much like I described, guys, these happen over and over again, illustrating we were going higher.

现在,为什么价格在过去四个交易日恰好在这里踩了刹车?嗯,是因为这条向上倾斜的平行通道。它甚至没有触及 400 美元。有人可能会说,嘿,Drew,它在那里停滞是因为 400 美元这个整数关口。

你可能是对的,但价格并没有刺穿那个区域,主要是因为它到不了那里,因为受到了这条阻力线的阻挡。

Now, why has price put on the brakes right here over the last four trading days? Well, it's because of this inclining parallel channel. Now, it didn't even get to $400. One could argue, hey, Drew, it's it's stalling out there because of the $400 whole round number.

You could be right, but price didn't pierce that area mainly because it couldn't get there because of this resistance.

既然我们现在看到价格回落,那么对 VLOO 价格进一步下跌有利的情况是,如果我们收在 9 月 9 日出现的这个低点枢轴下方,也就是 37,959 美元。如果我们收在该水平下方,那么 VLOO 跌向 350 美元附近下一个关键短期支撑位的概率就会增加。

And since we're seeing price come back down now, uh, a positive for price to come come down further on VLOO is if we put a daily close lower than this low pivot that occurred on September 9th, which is at $37,959.

We have a daily close underneath that level, that increases probabilities vo to come down to the next level right around $350 as the next key level of near-term support.

但看看 RSI,各位。接近超买,现在正跌到 70 以下,目前在 68 以下。顺便说一下,RSI 就是相对强弱指标,位于屏幕底部,当我切换到周线时你可以看到,我们在 75.76。

切换到月线,我们在 86.49,49,月线和周线都仍处于超买状态,短期内仍暗示我们确实需要在这张图上看到进一步下行,这应该会在这张图上较早而非较晚地出现。

But look at the RSI, guys. near overbought just coming down under 70 right now under 68. This too by the way the RSI is the relative strength indicators located at the bottom of the screen that you see when I flip to the weekly look at we're at 75.76.

Flip over to the monthly we're at 86.49 49 both monthly and weekly still remaining overbought near-term still implying that we do need to see further downside on the chart of via low that should uh correspond sooner rather than later on that chart.

观察点

日收盘价跌破 9 月 9 日的低点枢轴位
收盘价低于 $379.59
近期每日价格走势
增加跌向 $350 的概率
周线与月线图上的 RSI 水平
仍处于超买状态(周线约 76,月线约 86)
当前图表指标
意味着仍有进一步下行的需要

这个频道对 $VLO 的历次判断

Verified Investing 在这只股票上共 3 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。

2026-09-14看跌本条
但我们正在看的这只股票是 Valero。
2026-09-04看跌
我要说的是,像瓦莱罗能源和PSX这样的炼油商现在有巨大的裂解价差,这太荒谬了,因为他们简直是在印钱,因为他们的利润率如此之高,就像他们在加油站向你和我收取的驾驶等费用,与他们购买石油的成本相比。现在这非常巨大。我确实预计劳动节后这会缩小,我已经将瓦莱罗能源列为未来几周我最喜欢的做空标的之一。
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