VLO 在上涨 77% 后已过度延伸；面临暴利税风险和周期性裂解价差收窄，预计短期内将大幅下跌。
逐段跳播
Valero、MPC、Philips 999，也就是 PSX。但这是一个异类。我今天刚听说，在欧洲，他们在讨论对炼油商征收暴利税，因为他们赚了太多钱。这可能预示着这些股票叙事的变化，你可能会开始看到这些股票下跌，因为投机者纷纷逃窜。
如果暴利税被通过——如果它被宣布并通过，哪怕只是欧洲，这些股票很可能会下跌 15 到 20%，因为同样，这会抹掉他们正在赚取的很大一部分利润。
Valero, MPC, uh, Philips 999, which is PSX. But this is a this is an outlier. I just heard about this today is that in Europe, they're talking about instituting a windfall tax on the refiners because they're making so much money.
That could signal a change in narrative in those stocks where you could start to see those stocks starting to fall as speculators run for cover. If it was if it was passed if it was announced and passed a windfall tax even just out of Europe, these stocks would probably drop 15 to 20% as again it would wipe out a lot of the profits that they are making.
我们谈过 Valero。Valero 在盘前基本持平。再说一次，看看从六月以来的这波上涨。这只股票在短短几个月里大涨了——让我看看——77%。再说一次，你看，如果你给我看这张图，我会说：“哦，那肯定是最近最火的 AI 股票，对吧？
我是说，他们肯定有能治愈癌症的技术。不，实际上，他们可能有致癌的东西。但那不是重点。重点是，这只股票已经远远跑在了自己的滑雪板前面，尤其是现在政治氛围开始关注谁在高油价和柴油价格上赚了这么多钱，政客们会开始攻击这些参与者，谈论那个暴利税。
然后还要记住，历史上我们看到裂解价差变得又大又宽，他们赚了很多钱，然后它又缩回去。所以这些股票不可避免地有繁荣与萧条的周期，很像周期性股票，它们也会有。所以我继续喜欢它。我自己做空了 Valero，我确实认为这些股票会在未来几周和几个月里大幅回落。
We talked about Valero. Valero trading basically flat in the pre-market. Again, look at the rise just going back to June. This stock has rallied a whopping, let's see here, 77% in just a few months.
And again, you looked, if if you showed me this chart, I'd be like, "Oh, that's got to be like the latest hottest AI stock, right? I mean, they must have technology that's going to cure cancer.
No, actually, they probably have stuff that's causing cancer. But that's besides the point. The point is is that this stock has gotten way ahead of its skis, especially now that the political atmosphere is starting to look at who's making so much money off of high gas prices and diesel prices, and the politicians will start attacking these players and talking about that windfall tax.
And then also remember historically we've seen crack spreads get big and wide with them making lots of money and then it shrinks back down. And so inevitably these stocks have boom and bust cycles much like cyclical players and they will have it as well.
So I continue to like it. I am short Valero myself and I do think these will come in heavily over the coming weeks and months.
观察点
这个频道对 $VLO 的历次判断
Verified Investing 在这只股票上共 4 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。