Name: Bonds Are the Real Risk Right Now, Not Stocks | RRG Outlook
Uploaded: 2026-09-17
Description: XLK 前景中性偏负，因其在 RS 100 下方企稳；需突破 193-194 才能催化更广泛的市场上涨。

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与很长一段时间里只有XLK科技板块位于图表右侧不同，最近几周，五六周，我们现在看到各板块在RG上的分布和分散正在回到一个稍微更正常的状态，更正常的定位。

Unlike for a long period where we only had XLK technology on the right hand side of the graph, the last couple of weeks, five, six weeks, we now see that the spread and the distribution of the sectors on the RG is going back to a little bit more normal situation, normal positioning.

然后我们看到科技板块正在企稳，下行动量仍然存在，因为它低于100，但不再加速了。所以它仍处于负向动量，但正在企稳。这给了，因为它仍然是RS比率读数最高的板块，这给了该板块，给了科技板块可能性和空间，回旋余地，让它能够重新向上轮动，直到我们真的看到它进一步加速进入落后象限、走向负向。

我会把科技板块维持在轻微负面。所以，它是一个中性、展望负面，暂时是一种横盘性质的展望。从相对角度看，它并不能告诉你这个板块的价格方向。

And then we have technology stabilizing the downward momentum is still there because it's below 100 but it's not accelerating anymore. So it's still at negative momentum but stabilizing.

And that gives because it was it's still the sector with the highest RS ratio reading. It gives the sector, it gives the technology sector the possibility and the room, the wiggle room to rotate back up until until we really get an acceleration further to the lagging quadrant at a negative heading.

I'm going to keep the technology sector at a mildly negative. So, it's a neutral with a negative outlook, kind of sideways outlook for the time being. From a relative perspective, it doesn't tell you anything about the price direction of this sector.

我想分享的最后一张图，是因为每个人都想看科技板块，而且它是这个范围内最大的板块。所以这里是科技板块。自几周前以来没有太大变化。所以我们就好像，这里全都是内包线。在这个旗形突破之后，我们仍然守住了。

我认为，那种预期效果，也就是你在旗形调整之后通常会看到的，我们通常会看到一种激进的加速，我认为这个选项现在已经不在桌上了。那不会再发生了。我们会在XLK的193附近看到阻力出现。

但更重要的是，看起来相对强度已经守住了。我们创下了一个新低，如果动量继续改善，它就会有足够的时间把RS比率线重新拉上去，并重新轮动回领先象限。如果这奏效，如果这会发生，那将是SPY最终走高或继续走高的催化剂。

这个板块，科技板块，对SPY的后续发展至关重要。如果科技板块继续低迷，我认为SPY不会有非常强劲的上涨。如果XLK能够扭转局面，把强度扭转过来并突破193、194，那将是SPY以及股市重新上涨的催化剂。

And the last chart I want to share is because everybody wants to look at technology and it is the largest sector in the universe. So here is the technology sector. Not much changed since a couple of weeks ago.

So we just like these are all inside bars here. We're still holding up after the breakout of this flag. I think that the expected effect, which you could could see after like a flag-like correction, we usually would see like an aggressive acceleration.

I think that option is now off the table. That's not happening anymore. We will see resistance coming in around 193 for XLK. But what's more important, it looks like relative strength has hold.

We put a new low in place and if momentum continues to improve, it will have enough time to to pull the RS ratio line back up again and rotate back into the leading quadrant. And if that works, if that's going to happen, that'll be the catalyst for SPY to finally move higher or continue to move higher.

This sector, the technology sector, will be crucial for the further development of SPY. If technology remains in the doldrums, I don't think there'll be a very strong rally for SPY.

If Axel K is able to turn this thing around, turn around strength around and break above 193 194, that'll be the catalyst for a renewed rally in uh SPY and in the stock market.