Ahold 股票分析，在 YouTube 上分享我的研究的一个好处是，当某只股票下跌时，我会立即收到你们的评论。所以，看看这个，这正在发生，这正在发生。让我们看看 Ahold 发生了什么。
什么高于 40？现在，它回到了 30。我过去做过一些分析。这是很多年前的，但我说过 10% 的回报。股价当时是 27.50。加上股息，它每年实现了 10% 的回报。现在，我们比那个水平略低，所以我们必须检查其价值。
Ahold stock analysis, and one of the benefits of sharing my research on YouTube is that when something declines, I immediately get comments from you. So, and check this, this is going on, this is going on. And let's check what's going on with Ahold. What's above 40? Now, it's back to 30. I did a few analysis in the past. This is from a lot of years ago, but I said 10% return. The stock price was at 27 50. It delivered 10% per year with the dividend. Now, we are a little bit lower than that, so we have to check for the value.
对于那些不知道的人来说，Ahold 是一家在荷兰交易的公司，但它是一家美国食品杂货零售商。我们有美国公司，当然也有荷兰公司、比利时公司，还有其他业务，零售、制药等等，以及其他较小的业务。
但我认为 55-60% 的收入来自美国。但他们也有 ADR，如果你只想用美元交易。流动性好，股息收益率相同，一切看起来都不错。
For those who don't know, Ahold is a Dutch-traded company, but it's an American grocery retailer. We have American companies and of course Dutch companies, Belgium, something else, retail, pharmaceuticals, things like that, and other smaller businesses. But I think 55-60% revenue comes from the United States. But they also have the ADR if you want to be just in US dollars. Good liquidity, same dividend yield, everything looks good.
如果我们看第二季度的业绩，当你不得不翻到第 15 页看数字时，你就知道这些数字并不出色。按固定汇率计算，停滞不前，这里有一点增长，但不多，没有达到预期，没有什么能吸引华尔街的疯狂。
所以，线上仍在增长，但这也意味着其他部分增长较慢。利润率稳定，每股收益下降 1.4%，没有什么不好的，但也没有什么了不起的。而华尔街总是在寻找增长，他们的股票会立即调整。所以，美国消费者有点疲软。
欧洲仍然表现良好，但不如之前那么好。他们在美国赢得市场份额，140 亿欧元，那是 140 多亿美元的营收。他们在那里做得很好。
If we look at the Q2 results, when you have to go to page 15 for the numbers, you know that the numbers are not stellar. Constant rates, stagnant, a little bit growth here, but not that much, not the expectable, nothing crazy that would entice Wall Street. So, online it's still growing, but that also means that the rest is growing slower. Margin stable, earnings per share down 1.4%, nothing bad, but also nothing great. And Wall Street is always looking for growth, and immediately their stock adjusts. So, US a little bit of weakness in the consumer there. Europe still doing good, but not as good as earlier. They are winning market share in the US, 14 billion euros, that's what 14 and something billion US dollars in revenues. They're doing their job there.
好的，现金流稳定，业务非常防御性。欧洲也是如此。我们可以快速看一下展望，因为比这更稳定的你找不到。10 亿欧元的股票回购，保持股息，每年略有增长。资本支出，自由现金流 23 亿。
如果我看看自由现金流或净收入，那可能是他们将在股息和回购上花费的，20 亿。他们覆盖了这一点。如果你看资产负债表，他们只有一点点长期债务，只有 50 亿欧元。与公司相比，这不算多。
股权不多，但没关系，他们在进行回购。所以，好的，这是一项杂货业务，所以会有很多负债。当我们看回购时，我们看市值，用回购除以市值。所以，3.7% 的回购收益率。我将其纳入我计算的增长部分。
Okay, stable cash flow, very defensive business. Same in Europe. We can quickly go to the outlook because more stable than this you don't find around. 1 billion share buyback, dividend keeping the dividend there, growing a little bit every year. Capital expenditures, free cash flow 2.3 billion. And if I look at the free cash flow or the net income, that's what they will likely spend on the dividends and repurchases, 2 billion. They're covering that. If you look at the balance sheet, they have just a little bit of that long-term debt, just 5 billion euros. That's not much compared to the company. The equity, not that much, but okay, they are doing buybacks. So, okay, it's a grocery business, so there will be a lot of liabilities. When we look to at the buybacks, we look at the market cap, divide the buybacks with the market cap. So, 3.7% buyback yield. I'm including that into the growth part of my calculation.
这是我们的内在价值表，你可以随意调整。这里是，假设业务，让我们以每股股息作为估值基础。增长率，来自回购的 3%，以及仅 2% 和 1.5% 的有机增长，那么我们就达到每股股息 5% 的增长。
如果我预期未来 10% 的贴现率，如果我保持 4% 的股息收益率，那么未来 10% 回报的内在价值是 28，这与当前股价相差不远。所以，你可以预期，那是什么？8% 的回报，从这个防御性业务中获得更高的回报，如果你满足于 8% 的预期回报。
这没什么不好。如果我更乐观一点，假设他们从回购中增长 3%，有机增长 3% 的通货膨胀，利率下降，我们处于 3% 的股息收益率，现值很快就是 34。如果只是利率下降，那么你会立即看到股价升至 40，你在股息之上获得 30% 的收益。
最坏的情况，衰退，诸如此类，股息收益率上升到，比如说，5%，增长率放缓，现值是再下跌 30%，但在那种情况下，应该买入更多。我把名义情况设为 60% 2020。也许应该是 4040 这里，更好。
我们到了。10% 回报的内在价值接近股价。在 9% 时看起来有趣。所以，你得到一个 4% 的防御性情况。一切看起来都不错。良好的回报，长期可能达到高个位数。
This is our intrinsic value table, and you can play around with it. And here is Let's say that the business, let's take a dividend per share as base of valuation. Growth rate, 3% from buybacks, and just 2 1 and 1/2% from organic, then we are at 5% growth for dividend per share. If I expect a 10% discount rate going forward, if I keep the dividend yield at 4%, the intrinsic value for a 10% return down the road is at 28, which is not far from the current stock price. So, you can expect on What is that? 8% return, something higher from this defensive business if you're happy with an 8% expected return. Nothing bad with that. If I go a little bit more exuberant, let's say that they grow 3% from buybacks, 3% inflation organic, and that interest rates go down, and we are at a 3% dividend yield, the present value is quickly 34. And if just interest rates go down, then you see immediately the stock going to 40, and you make your 30% on top of the dividend. Worst-case scenario, recession, things like that, the dividend yield goes to, let's say, 5%, slower growth rate, the present value is for another 30% down, but in that case, one should buy more. I put nominal case 60% 2020. Maybe it was should be 4040 here, better. And here we are. The intrinsic value for 10% return is close to the stock price. At 9% looks interesting. So, you're getting a 4% defensive situation. Everything looks good. Good return, high single digit likely long term.
发生了什么？为什么股票下跌？嗯，你总是要将其与利率进行比较。我们上周六讨论过，利率上升，利息成本上升，德国人支付最高的 30 年期债券利率，接近 4%。当涉及到这种几乎像债券一样的稳定业务时，一切都与你可以从政府获得的利率进行比较。
10 年期美国国债收益率 4.7%，而这是 4% 加上一点增长。这就是打击股票的原因。这里只是有一点停滞或预期的稳定，然后砰的一声，它下跌了 40%。所以，相对而言，它看起来非常好，8% 的长期回报，但从绝对价值投资的角度来看，我总是在想，特别是要添加到我的投资组合中，10% 或更多。
我能达到 12% 吗？因为那样我就不会那么受利率、暂时情况的影响。我知道，好的，在那个价格，在 20 多美元的低位，Ahold 无论如何都会给我回报。而现在我仍然必须赌未来利率可能下降，赌消费者良好，赌不会出现严重的衰退，赌人们满足于 4% 而不是 6% 的股息。
那在糟糕的时候会发生。人们说，“伟大的业务，我想要 6% 的收益率。”因为所有其他机会都更便宜。我会把 Ahold 放在我的桌子上。回报不错。我们会将其与其他公司进行比较，腾讯、Visa，取决于我听到阿里巴巴时有多兴奋，然后我们会看到其他公司。
看看风险回报如何适合你，你如何构建投资组合。所以，目前它在这里很有趣，让我们看看它随着时间的推移如何发展。
What's going on? Why is the stock down? Well, you have to always compare it to interest rates. We discussed last Saturday, interest rates up, interest costs up, Germans paying the most for their 30-year bond going to almost 4%. And when it comes to such stable businesses that are practically like a bond, everything is compared to interest rates that you can get from governments. 4.7% on the 10-year US Treasury, and this is 4% with little growth. That's what hit the stock. Just a little bit of sluggishness here or stability that's expected, and boom, it goes down 40%. So, relatively it looks very good, 8% long-term return, but from an absolute value investing perspective, I'm always thinking, especially to add to my portfolios, 10% and more. Can I get to 12%? Because then I'm not that under the influence of interest rates, of temporary situations. I know, okay, at that price, in the low 20s, a hold will give me a return no matter what. And now I still have to gamble on perhaps lower interest rates down the road, on the good consumer, on not a bad recession, on people being happy with 4%, not a 6% dividend. That happens in bad times. People say, "Great business, I want a 6% yield from that." Because all other opportunities are cheaper. I'll keep Ahold here on my table. Good return. We'll compare it to others, Tencent's, Visa's, depending on how exuberant was I hear Alibaba's, and then we'll see others. See how the risk and reward of things fits you, how you can structure a portfolio. So, for now, interesting it is here and let's see how it develops over time.