另一组值得考虑的公司是博通和迈威尔。事实上，迈威尔也将在本周晚些时候公布财报。这些公司更为复杂，因为博通和迈威尔受益于AI支出，但它们也代表了英伟达最大的长期威胁之一。为什么？
定制芯片。谷歌、Meta、OpenAI和其他超大规模企业越来越希望拥有专门为其工作负载设计的AI加速器。博通和迈威尔帮助实现这些芯片。所以，如果英伟达表示整体AI基础设施支出继续激增，这对博通和迈威尔都是好事。
但如果黄仁勋开始讨论定制加速器的竞争压力，这对这两家公司来说也是另一个重要的积极信号。这就是为什么我同时持有两边的敞口。我持有英伟达、AMD，以及博通和迈威尔，但它们的仓位规模都不同。
英伟达受益于通用加速计算，而博通和迈威尔则受益于超大规模企业越来越多地设计专用芯片。我不需要完美预测哪种架构会胜出。
Another set of companies to consider looking at is going to be Broadcom and Marvell. And in fact, Marvell also reports this week, later in the week. These companies are more nuanced because Broadcom and Marvell benefit from AI spending, but it also represents one of Nvidia's biggest long-term threats. Why? Custom silicon. Google, Meta, OpenAI, other hyperscalers, these companies increasingly want AI accelerators designed specifically for their own workloads. Broadcom and Marvell help enable those chips. So, if Nvidia says overall AI infrastructure spending continues exploding, that's great for both Broadcom and Marvell. But if Jensen starts discussing competitive pressures from custom accelerators, that's another important positive signal for both of these companies. This is why I own exposure to both sides of the equation. I own Nvidia, AMD, and then Broadcom and Marvell, but position sizing is different for all of them. Nvidia benefits from general-purpose accelerated computing. Broadcom and Marvell benefits as hyperscalers increasingly design specialized silicon. I don't need to perfectly predict which architecture wins.
然后我们来看Credo。实际上，你也可以把迈威尔归入这一组。投资者需要明白一点：你不能仅仅通过增加更多GPU来构建庞大的AI集群。这些GPU必须相互通信。随着集群从数千个扩展到数万个，甚至可能数十万个加速器，网络的重要性呈指数级增长。
如果英伟达继续谈论更大的AI工厂、机架级系统和巨大集群，这对网络需求是利好。迈威尔在英伟达之后第二天公布财报，而博通则在下周公布。因此，英伟达的评论可能会为这两份财报定下基调。这就是为什么我会密切关注黄仁勋关于网络的讨论。
So, then we move on to Credo. And really, you could throw Marvell into this group as well. This is where investors need to understand something. You cannot build enormous AI clusters by simply adding more GPUs. Those GPUs have to communicate. And as clusters scale from thousands to tens of thousands to potentially hundreds of thousands of accelerators, networking becomes exponentially more important. If Nvidia continues talking about larger AI factories, rack-scale systems, and enormous clusters, that's bullish for the networking demand. Marvell reports the very next day after Nvidia, while Broadcom follows the next week. So, Nvidia's commentary could effectively set the tone for both reports. That's why I'll be listening closely to Jensen's discussion around networking.
这就是为什么我同时持有两边的敞口。我持有英伟达、AMD，以及博通和迈威尔，但它们的仓位规模都不同。英伟达受益于通用加速计算，而博通和迈威尔则受益于超大规模企业越来越多地设计专用芯片。我不需要完美预测哪种架构会胜出。
This is why I own exposure to both sides of the equation. I own Nvidia, AMD, and then Broadcom and Marvell, but position sizing is different for all of them. Nvidia benefits from general-purpose accelerated computing. Broadcom and Marvell benefits as hyperscalers increasingly design specialized silicon. I don't need to perfectly predict which architecture wins.
迈威尔在英伟达之后第二天公布财报，而博通则在下周公布。因此，英伟达的评论可能会为这两份财报定下基调。这就是为什么我会密切关注黄仁勋关于网络的讨论。
Marvell reports the very next day after Nvidia, while Broadcom follows the next week. So, Nvidia's commentary could effectively set the tone for both reports. That's why I'll be listening closely to Jensen's discussion around networking.
那么，周三晚上财报公布后，实际上可能有两种情况。第一种情况，英伟达大获成功。营收超预期，每股收益超预期，毛利率保持，第三季度指引远高于1040亿美元。Rubin按计划进行，黄仁勋表示需求继续超过供应。
如果我们看到这种组合，我认为你可能会看到AI、英伟达、AMD、台积电、博通、迈威尔、Credo、美光，甚至可能AI基础设施和数据中心股票的显著反弹，因为市场得到确认，AI支出周期尚未结束。
需要明确的是，这不仅是我希望看到的情况，也是我的预期。
So, with that, there's really two scenarios that could take place after the report on Wednesday night. Scenario one, Nvidia crushes it. Revenue beats, EPS beats, margins hold, Q3 guidance comes in well above 104 billion. Ruben remains on schedule, and Jensen says demand continues exceeding supply. If we get that combination, I think you could see a significant relief rally across AI, Nvidia, AMD, Taiwan Semi, Broadcom, Marvell, Credo, Micron, potentially even AI infrastructure and data center names because the market gets confirmation the AI spending cycle isn't over. And to be clear, this is the scenario I'm not only hoping for, but also it's my expectation.
所以，总而言之，英伟达将于周三公布财报，这可能是本季剩余时间中最重要的财报。我关注的是920亿美元以上的营收、每股收益2.09美元，希望更高，75%的毛利率，以及第三季度指引与约1040亿美元的对比。
对传闻中的需求有何看法？是否有任何销售进入中国？最重要的是，黄仁勋关于基础设施支出的评论。因为如果英伟达告诉我们需求仍然异常强劲，那不仅会加强我对英伟达的论点，还会加强我对AI投资组合中大部分公司的信心，包括AMD、台积电、博通、迈威尔、Credo、美光，以及可能更多公司。
但如果我们开始看到裂痕，我不会仅仅因为我看好AI就忽视它们。这就是关注财报的全部意义。我们的论点应该跟随基本面，而不是反过来。周三晚上，我们将获得全年中最重要的基本面更新之一。
So, in conclusion, Nvidia reports Wednesday, and this is probably the most important earnings report remaining in the season. I'm watching 92 plus billion in revenue, $2.09 EPS, hoping for higher, 75% gross margins, and Q3 guidance versus roughly $104 billion. What's the take on rumor demand? Is there any sales heading into China? And most importantly, Jensen Huang's commentary around infrastructure spending. Because if Nvidia tells us demand remains extraordinary, that doesn't just strengthen my Nvidia thesis, it strengthens my conviction across much of the AI investment stack. AMD, Taiwan Semi, Broadcom, Marvell, Credo, Micron, and potentially many more. But if we start seeing cracks, I'm not going to ignore them simply because I'm bullish on AI. That's the entire purpose of following earnings. Our thesis should follow the fundamentals, not the other way around. And Wednesday night, we're going to get one of the most important updates of those fundamentals we receive all year.