Mark Roussin, CPA 对 $BABA 的判断变化
这让我们来到第四只股票，那就是阿里巴巴，股票代码 BABA。我知道这只股票会让一些投资者感到担忧和不安。它涉及中国、地缘政治风险、政府干预、消费疲软。这些风险确实存在，我没有忽视它们。但这也是估值机会存在的原因。
And that leads us to stock number four, which is going to be Alibaba. Stock ticker BABA. And I know this stock is going to give some investors some concern and make them feel uncomfortable. It's China, geopolitical risk, government intervention, consumer weakness. There are legitimate risks here. I'm not ignoring them. But that's also why the valuation opportunity exists.
阿里巴巴让我们接触到几个主要主题：中国电子商务、云计算、人工智能、国际商务以及改善股东回报。我认为投资者有时忘记的是，中国不需要突然成为世界上最强大或增长最快的经济体，阿里巴巴才能成功。
门槛要低得多。如果中国经济只是企稳，消费者信心改善，云需求继续加速，阿里巴巴继续将 AI 变现，盈利故事可能会大幅改善。
Alibaba gives us exposure to several major themes. Chinese e-commerce, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, international commerce, and improving shareholder returns. What I think investors sometimes forget is that China doesn't need to suddenly become the world's strongest economy or fastest growing for Alibaba to work. The bar is much lower. If China's economy simply stabilizes, consumer confidence improves, cloud demand continues accelerating, and Alibaba continues monetizing AI, the earning story could improve considerably.
AI 是阿里巴巴的游戏规则改变者。它不再仅仅是一家电子商务公司。云和 AI 变得越来越重要。如果中国企业加速采用生成式 AI，我们谈论的是巨大的盈利。阿里巴巴云可能成为国内最大的受益者之一。
仅最近一个季度，阿里巴巴云业务同比增长 45%，云 EBITDA 增长 133%，AI 相关收入连续第 12 个季度实现三位数增长。
AI is the gamecher for Alibaba. It isn't simply an e-commerce company anymore. Cloud and AI are becoming increasingly important. And if Chinese companies accelerate adoption of generative AI, I mean, we're talking big-time earnings. Alibaba cloud could become one of the biggest domestic beneficiaries. In the most recent quarter alone, Alibaba's cloud business grew 45% year-over-year. Cloud Ibida grew 133%. And AI related revenues saw tripledigit growth for the 12th consecutive quarter.
我知道有人会说：“我不能投资中国。”或者如果你看烟草公司，我不能买烟草公司。但请记住，我们在这里是为了赚钱，你可以分解许多公司找到一些负面因素。所以，我将 BABA 视为电子商务加云加 AI 加中国复苏期权。
但同样，地缘政治折价是真实存在的。这就是为什么我不会像对待美国大型股那样对待阿里巴巴。如果你认为美国一些主要 AI 玩家已经涨到位了，那么看看其他地方很重要。
I know people are out there saying, "Well, I can't invest in China." Or if you're looking at a tobacco company, I can't buy tobacco companies. But remember, we're here to make money, and you could break down many companies to find some negative factors. So, I view Baba as e-commerce plus cloud plus AI plus China recovery optionality. But again, the geopolitical discount is real. That's why I wouldn't size Alibaba like a US mega cap company. And if you're thinking some of the major AI players in the US have been played out, it's important to look elsewhere.
分析师对该股保持乐观，给予 12 个月目标价每股 183 美元，意味着较当前水平有 54% 的上涨空间。
And analysts remain upbeat on the stock, giving it a 12-month price target of $183 per share, implying 54% upside from current levels.
BABA，那就是中国、云和 AI。
Baba, that's China, cloud and AI.