$BIDU

BIDU

Baidu Inc. · Baidu Inc.
窗口 08-24 → 08-25 · 回看 24 小时(美东)

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I Can't Stay Quiet on Baidu's Crash Any Longer
百度是一只投机性的长期买入标的:尽管当前面临逆风,但其AI增长、与苹果的合作以及自动驾驶出租车领域的领先地位,可能推动股价走高。
看涨

但鉴于BIDU刚刚公布了财报,股价却进一步下跌,我想现在是时候给大家更新一下这家中国AI领导者的最新情况了,因为我们大概已经有一两年没有这样做了。

But given that BIDU just reported earnings and the stock fell even more, I thought it'd be a good time to give you guys an update on this Chinese AI leader since we haven't done one in uh probably like one or two years or so.

尽管我自己也持有一些该公司的股票。那么,让我们再次深入探究BIDU的内部情况,并确切分析为什么尽管其业务和技术拥有如此多的未来前景,股价却下跌了这么多。

Um despite me actually owning a little bit of the stock myself. So uh let's once again take a look under the hood of BIDU and let's break down exactly why the stock has been falling by so much despite holding so much future promise in their business and in tech.

嗯,打开股价图表,我们可以看到它现在已从顶部下跌了约70%,甚至今天的股价比十年前还要低。如果你指望他们刚刚发布的财报能带来大幅反弹,嗯,再想想吧,因为股价继续下跌,仅在过去一个季度就下跌了超过30%。

Well, pulling up the stock chart, we can see that it's now lost around 70% of its entire value from the top, and it's even sitting lower today than it did an entire decade ago. Uh if you were hoping for a big rebound on the earnings that they just released uh just like this past week, well think again because shares just continue to fall even more where they now sit down over 30% in the past quarter alone.

嗯,这实际上归结为他们投入AI的激进支出,而他们在一些传统业务(如传统在线营销和广告板块)上却没有看到足够高的回报,这些业务与疫情高峰期相比面临艰难的对比,当时每个人都在家上网浏览。

Well, it really comes down to all of the aggressive spending that they've been dumping into AI while not seeing nearly high enough returns on some of their legacy businesses like their traditional online marketing and advertising segments that have had a really tough comparison to the pandemic highs where everyone was you know at that time staying home and browsing online.

作为该国最大的搜索引擎,BU还拥有该地区最大的数字广告市场份额。但当疫情后人们开始重新外出时,在线流量开始真正回落,这导致百度的财务业绩也随之调整。

I see as the biggest search engine in the country BU also holds the most digital advertising market share in the region. But when things started opening back up outside um outside of homes um online traffic uh started to really correct back down coming off of the pandemic and this caused by Duce financials to correct for it too.

而现在我们面对的只是一个更加疲弱的全球经济,它正遭受巨大的通胀、高利率,甚至贸易战和许多许多其他问题。所有这些都大大抑制了消费者支出,同样重要的是,也抑制了企业支出,而BU在广告市场中对后者依赖严重。

And now all we're really left with here is a much weaker global economy that is suffering from huge inflation, high interest rates, even trade wars and lots lots of more issues. Um all of which greatly drives down not only consumer spending but just as important business spending which again BU heavily relies on in the advertising markets.

更不用说,该地区的竞争也大大加剧了。因此,所有这一切的结果是,BIDU现在几乎没有营收增长,利润大幅下滑,预计未来几年才会缓慢回升。

Not to mention that competition has also greatly re risen in the that region too. And so the result of all of this is that BIDU is now seeing little to no topline growth with plummeting profits that are only expected to slowly start crawling back up in future years.

作为长期投资者,由于它是中国公司,我仍将其视为投机性股票,因此我严格控制对其的敞口。嗯,对我来说,忍受一些这种波动并等待长期反弹并不难。

Now, as a long-term investor who still treats this like a speculative stock because of it being Chinese, I greatly limit my exposure to it. Well, it's not that hard for me to stomach some some of this volatility and wait for hopefully a rebound to come longer term.

所以,我能理解像目前正在发生的负面宏观事件偶尔会发生,因此,如果我仍然喜欢基础业务及其未来潜力,大幅下跌通常只是买入机会。

So, I can understand that negative macro events like the ones that are currently going through uh you know will happen on occasion and so big drops in price are usually just buying opportunities if I still like the underlying business and its future potential.

但由于市场通常更关心当前表现,尤其是在如今市场因AI而变得如此膨胀的情况下,他们不会轻易放过一家如此挣扎的公司,不幸的是,BU目前正是这种情况。

But because the market usually cares more about current performance, especially these days with how inflated the market has become from AI, well, they're not so easily going to give a pass to a company that is struggling so greatly, which unfortunately for BU is pretty much the situation that they're in right now.

就拿他们最近的财报为例,在线营销销售额实际上暴跌,同比下降了惊人的19%。他们控股的流媒体服务IQIY的收入也下滑了5%。

Just take their most recent earnings for example, where online marketing sales actually uh cratered fell by a whopping 19% year-over-year. their majorityowned streaming service, IQIY, um also saw its revenue slip by 5% as well.

整个公司的总销售额下降了约4%,完全低于分析师的预期。此外,如果这还不够糟糕,他们的利润表现更糟,每股收益暴跌约72%,也远低于预期。

And overall sales for the company at large uh sunk about 4% which completely missed analyst expectations. Plus, if that wasn't bad enough, their bottom line looked even worse with EPS crashing by around 72% which also badly missed expectations.

而这其中的部分原因,再次归因于他们在人工智能上投入的巨额资金。例如,本季度的资本支出实际上同比增长了三倍,达到近17亿美元。

And part of the reason for this is again due to all of the heavy spending that they're pouring into AI. For example, capex in the quarter actually tripled year-over-year up to nearly $1.7 billion.

换句话说,华尔街感到不满,这是理所当然的,因为BIDU在传统现金牛业务正经历与以往相比最困难的比较期之一时,却将数十亿美元投入到尚未完全回报的未来技术上。

In other words, Wall Street is upset, rightfully so, that BIDU is pouring billions of dollars into future tech that hasn't fully paid off for them yet at a time when their legacy cash cow business is also going through one of the most difficult kind of uh comparison periods imaginable to to prior ones.

因此,投资者原本真的希望这种支出水平能更快地带来更令人印象深刻的财务回报,而不是像现在这样需要等待。但当这些结果没有出现时,他们就开始因此惩罚这只股票。

And so investors were really hoping that this level of spending would yield faster, more impressive financial returns sooner than than you know what it's taking. Um but when it didn't when they didn't get those results um they they started punishing the stock for it.

然而,我认为现在很多机会开始悄然回归,因为BIDU实际上正在经历一场表面之下的重大转型,这看起来很有前景,而且这当然与人工智能息息相关,尽管存在那些拖累因素和艰难的同比比较,他们的人工智能业务实际上正以相当高的速度增长。

However, this is where much of the opportunity now I think starts to creep back in a bit because BIDU is actually going through a pretty big transformation beneath the surface that does look promising and it has of course everything to do with artificial intelligence which despite those other drags and and the tough compers uh their AI operations are actually growing at a pretty high rate.

事实上,我们已经知道,BIDU的人工智能驱动业务现在占其整个一般业务收入的50%。而且,该AI板块内部的增长指标也非常惊人。

In fact, already we know that BIDU's AI powered business now accounts for a whopping 50% of their entire general business revenue. And the growth metrics inside that AI segment are off the charts, too.

例如,他们的人工智能云基础设施销售额同比增长了50%,尽管已经领先市场。而他们的GPU云收入同比增长了283%。

And for example, their AI cloud infrastructure sales soared by 50% year-over-year despite already leading the market. And their GPU cloud revenue exploded by 283% year-over-year.

这向我们表明,中国对基于公共云的AI计算需求确实在强劲增长,而BIDU正在占据这一需求的很大一部分。事实上,他们自有的专有AI芯片(称为K Lungen)也取得了巨大成功。

This shows us that there is actually robust mounting demand for public cloud-based AI compute in China and BIDU is capturing a giant chunk chunk of that demand. In fact, they're even seeing a ton of success with their own proprietary AI chips known as K Lungen.

由于美国对向中国出口英伟达等高端芯片实施了严格的贸易限制和关税,中国本土科技巨头被迫转而依赖国内替代品。而BIDU的K Lungen芯片一直在积极填补这一空白。

See, with the US placing heavy trade restrictions and tariffs on exporting high-end chips like Nvidia's into China, well, local tech giants have been forced to rely on domestic alternatives instead. And BIDU's kungen chips have been really stepping up to fill some of that void.

他们甚至正在考虑分拆该部门,以便在香港证券交易所进行IPO,鉴于对其AI芯片的巨大需求(很多时候现有供应甚至无法满足),该部门很可能会取得巨大成功。

And they're even looking to spin off this unit now so that it can IPO on the Hong Kong stock exchange where it would likely see a ton of success given all the demand for their AI chips that uh many times can't even be supplied enough by by current offerings.

例如,在上一轮融资中,该部门的估值达到数十亿美元,这意味着BIDU内部可能隐藏着大量价值,而更广泛的市场尚未充分认识到。

Now during it its last um financing round for example the unit was valued at several billions of dollars meaning there could be a ton of hidden value locked inside of BIDU that the broader market hasn't fully appreciated yet.

但也许BIDU最令人兴奋的近期催化剂是他们与苹果的全新合作,就在最近,中国网信办正式批准了Apple Intelligence在中国使用,因为苹果需要本地化的中国AI模型来为其在该地区的服务提供支持。

But perhaps one of the most exciting near-term catalyst for BIDU is in their brand new partnership with Apple where just recently the cyerspace administration of China officially approved Apple intelligence for use in the country because Apple needs local Chinese AI models to power their services in the region.

他们实际上选择与BIDU和阿里巴巴合作,将他们的AI工具直接集成到全国范围内的iPhone、iPad和MacBook中。

They actually chose to partner with BU and Alibaba integrate their AI tools directly into iPhones, iPads, and MacBooks across the country.

这是对BIDU技术及其AI直接集成到苹果生态系统的巨大认可。这让他们能够立即接触到数百万高端用户。

That's a huge endorsement for BIDU's technology and having their AI integrated directly into the Apple ecosystem. It gives them immediate access to millions of premium users.

我们甚至还没有谈到他们的自动驾驶部门,这个部门可以说对他们的长期未来潜力与其他任何部分一样重要。众所周知,分析师们一直在预测全球机器人出租车市场最终将达到数万亿美元的价值。

We haven't even talked about their autonomous driving division yet either, which is arguably just as important for their long-term future potential as anything else. As we all know that analysts have been pricing the global robo taxi market to eventually reach, you know, trillions of dollars worth of value.

嗯,很多人甚至不知道,百度的Apollo Go实际上是全球机器人出租车服务的领导者,其足迹已覆盖28个不同城市,完成了超过2300万次出行,累计自动驾驶里程超过3.5亿公里,其中包括超过240公里的完全无人驾驶里程。

Well, many people don't even know this, but BU's own Apollo Go is actually the global leader in robo taxi services, having now reached a footprint that spans across 28 different cities with over 23 million rides completed and over 350 million autonomous kilometers, including over 240 fully driverless kilometers driven as well.

而且他们也不只留在中国,他们已经在迪拜启动了无人驾驶商业运营。他们正在阿布扎比推出自动驾驶网约车服务。

And they're not just staying in China either, as they've already launched driverless commercial operations in Dubai. They're rolling out autonomous ride hailing in Abu Dhabi.

他们从首尔开始进入了韩国市场。而且他们现在还在瑞士和伦敦进行开放道路测试,未来还有更多的扩张计划。换句话说,这不再只是一个随意的白日梦,而是正在迅速成为一个非常合法且规模化的业务,我认为它可能最终成为全球自动驾驶技术、平台和服务领域最重要的领导者之一,长期来看,它可能成为另一个高利润的现金牛业务,可能再次推动股价上涨。

Uh they entered the South Korean market starting in Seoul. And they're even conducting open road testing in Switzerland and London right now too with more plans for expansion on the horizon as well. In other words, this isn't just some random pipe dream anymore, but rather it's quickly becoming a very legitimate and scaling business that I think could turn by due into one of the most important global leaders in AV, auton, you know, autonomous vehicle, technologies, platforms, services, uh, long term and potentially it could just, you know, become another high margin kind of cash cow type of business that could send the price rising back up once again.

而且,这还不止于此。像我之前提到的,百度实际上拥有比世界上任何其他公司都多的人工智能专利。

Plus, it doesn't even stop there. Uh, like I mentioned before, BIDU actually holds more AI patents than any other company in the world.

而且,这些专利以后可以在他们自己的运营中利用,或者以高利润率授权出去。与此同时,他们也在继续发展自己的文心一言,这是他们的旗舰大语言模型和聊天机器人,最近推出了文心5.0,可以无缝地同时处理文本、图像、音频和视频。

And these patents, by the way, can later be leveraged into their own operations or even licensed out at high margins, too. Meanwhile, they also continue to grow their own Ernie bots, which is their flagship large language model and chatbot for which they recently launched Ernie 5.0, which can seamlessly model text, images, audio, and videos all together.

它在该地区迅速变得非常受欢迎,截至今年年初,月活跃用户已达2亿。所以当你把所有因素拼凑在一起,是的,目前确实存在一些问题需要绝对注意和非常警惕,这些问题目前正在拖累他们的业务,但驱动百度未来十年增长的底层人工智能引擎也正在变得非常真实,而且真的无法预测他们人工智能业务中某些领域能变得多大,以及它能在未来多大程度上推动股价上涨。

has quickly grown to be incredibly popular in the region, boasting 200 million monthly active users as of the start of this year. So when you piece it all together, yes, there are current issues to absolutely be aware of, very much be cautious of that are acting as a drag on their business at present time, but the underlying AI engine that will drive kind of, you know, like the next decade of growth for BIDU is also becoming very real and and um there's really just kind of no telling how some of those certain areas within their AI business um how big they can become and how much it can really help propel the stock higher in the future.

那么,考虑到所有这些,考虑到百度股价下跌这么多,我自己目前对百度股票做了什么?

So um with all of this in mind, what am I actually doing myself with BU stock at the moment considering how much it's falling?

嗯,我必须给你们所有的免责声明,我总是把任何中国股票纯粹视为一种投机性的长期赌注,如果我选择涉足的话,如果我有足够的勇气这样做的话。

Well, again, I just have to give you guys like all the disclaimers in the world that um you know, I always treat any Chinese stock as purely like a speculative kind of long-term bet if I even choose to to dip my toes in it, if I'm even courageous enough to do so.

因为真的,我不在乎业务看起来有多强大。我实际上认为阿里巴巴,例如,是世界上最强大的企业之一,但所有这些都不比这些仍然是中国的VIE结构公司这一事实更重要。

Because really, I don't care how strong the business might look. I I mean I actually think that Alibaba, for example, is one of like the strongest businesses in the world, but none of that gets prioritized higher than the fact that these are still Chinese VIE structured companies.

这意味着像我这样的美国投资者实际上是在购买一家离岸空壳公司的股票,而不是中国境内的实际底层资产。所以我对这些投资几乎没有保护。

Meaning that US investors like myself are technically buying shares of an offshore shell company, not the physical underlying assets in China. So I have almost no protection um for these investments.

而且尤其是,你知道,随着中美之间紧张局势不断升级,我绝不会把中国股票作为我的重仓股之一。这是第一位的,最重要的,高于一切。

And especially, you know, with all the rising tensions between the US and China, um I would never make a Chinese stock one of my top holdings. That's number one, first and foremost, above everything else.

但除此之外,我实际上正在逢低买入少量BIDU股票,因为我仍然认为它是全球人工智能领域最有前景的公司之一。而且我对阿里巴巴也有同样的感觉,它有点像中国的亚马逊替代品,而BU则有点像谷歌。

But beyond that, uh I am actually buying a small amount of BIDU shares on the dip for what I still think is one of the more kind of promising names in AI for the world. And I actually feel like very much the same about Alibaba too as kind of like the Chinese Amazon alternative where BU is kind of the Google one.

如果这些公司是美国公司,在我看来它们会是想象中最被低估的股票之一,但因为它们是中国的,所以理所当然地,它们的交易价格往往有非常大的折价,即使现在作为中国股票,它们的EV/销售额和利润比率仍然显著低于整个科技行业,而且分析师给出的平均目标价显示,仅未来12个月内就有超过60%的上涨空间。

Uh if these companies were American um they would in my opinion be two of like the most undervalued stocks imaginable but because they are Chinese you know rightfully so they tend to trade at these like really big discounts which even right now as um as a as a Chinese stock by um they still trade at an EV to sales and and profits ratio that is um significantly lower than the broader tech sector and they hold um average price targets from analysts that would see over a 60% rise in just the next 12 months alone.

再说一次,我接受这种设置,因为我承认风险。我做研究,只做我完全放心的投资决策。所以,持有几只这样的中国股票,我晚上睡得很好,因为我认为价值显然在那里。

Again, I'm okay with this setup here because I acknowledge the risk. I do my research and I only make investing decisions that I'm fully comfortable with. So, I sleep fine at night owning a couple of these, you know, Chinese stocks because I just think that the value is clearly there.

但是,你知道,我也能理解,对其他人来说,这类股票涉及的风险可能不值得。这也是完全合理的。

But, you know, I can also understand that for others, the the risk involved with these kinds of of names um may just not be worth it. And um that's completely reasonable, too.

但是,嘿,说到这个,我很想听听你们对此的看法。所以,请在评论区告诉我。你们是把BIDU股票70%的暴跌视为逢低买入一些股票的机会,还是认为所有当前的困境加上这些是中国股票的事实,让它们太可怕而不敢碰?

But um hey, speaking of which, I would love to get your guys' thoughts on all of this. So, let me know down in the comments section. Are you uh looking at this, you know, 70% crash in BIDU stock as an opportunity to grab some shares on the dip or do you just think that all of the um current struggles combined with the fact that, you know, these are Chinese stocks just make them, you know, too scary to touch?

我很想在下面的评论区听到所有这些不同的观点。但是,嘿,无论如何,我只是希望你们喜欢这个关于BIDU股票的更新。

I would love to hear all those different perspectives on it down below in the comment section. Um but hey, either way, I just hope that you enjoyed this update on BIDU stock.

如果还有其他我们最近没有更新过的股票,你们想听我谈谈,请告诉我。在下面告诉我那些是什么,我可以为你们制作那些视频。

Let me know if there's any other stock that um we haven't given an update on uh to recently that you guys would like to hear me talk about. Let me know down below what what those are and I can make those videos for you.

但是,嘿,无论如何,我只是希望你们都过得好。感谢你们的到来,我们下个视频见。好了,保重,我的朋友们。

But hey, either way, I just hope that you're all doing well. I thank you for stopping by and uh I'll catch you guys in the next video. All right, take care, my friends.

再见。好的,呃,我们都知道,人工智能在过去几年里一直是整个股市中最大的主题和话题。这对任何关注市场甚至整个经济的人来说都是非常明显的。

Bye-bye. Okay, so uh we all know that artificial intelligence has been by far the biggest overall theme and topic across the entire stock market for the past couple years. This is very obvious to anyone that's tracking the market and even kind of the economy at large.

但是,尽管许多人工智能股票的价格飙升,创下历史新高,但如果我告诉你,世界上最大的人工智能公司之一目前正经历一场巨大的多年暴跌,甚至现在的交易价格比疫情前还要低,你会怎么想?

But while many of those AI stocks have skyrocketed in price to break new record highs, what if I told you that one of the actually largest AI companies of the entire world is currently going through a gigantic multi-year crash to the point where it's even trading lower today than it did before the pandemic years ever even happened.

顺便说一下,这家公司不仅在全球拥有最多的人工智能专利,而且在亚洲的人工智能云市场份额中排名第一。

And this company, by the way, not only holds the most AI patents globally, but they also hold number one market share in AI cloud throughout Asia.

他们运营着目前现存最大的自动驾驶机器人出租车车队,并且经常被拿来与谷歌比较,因为他们拥有并运营着各种平台和软件。

They operate the largest autonomous uh robo taxi fleet currently in existence and they frequently get compared to Google in terms of the various platforms and softwares that they own and operate.

但这里有什么问题呢?嗯,这是一只中国股票,我当然说的是,伙计,股票代码是BU,他也是中国搜索市场份额的领导者,就像谷歌在美国和其他地方一样。

But what's the catch here? Well, it's a Chinese stock and I'm of course talking about by dude, ticker symbol BU, who's also the leader in uh the search market, search market share throughout the country in uh China, just like Google is here of course in the states and elsewhere.

嗯,但近年来,尽管有过一些非常有希望的时刻,价格大幅飙升,但现在市场真的把这股票当作几乎不可投资来对待,公平地说,很多人认为中国股票普遍如此,而且有充分的理由,当然,你知道,像我们这样的外国投资者在中国公司中的股东权利非常有限。好的。

Um but in recent years despite having you know very promising moments with big spikes in price uh right now the market really is treating this stock like it's almost uninvestable which to be fair a lot of people consider Chinese stocks in general to be exactly that and for good reason of course as you know foreign investors like any of us would have you know very little shareholder rights with Chinese companies. All right.

那太疯狂了。那么到底是什么让投资者如此激进地按下卖出按钮呢?

That's pretty crazy. So what on earth is causing investors to hit the sell button so aggressively?

KOL的观察点

名单内的来源在这个窗口里没有说他们在等什么。
研究辅助,非投资建议