最后是 Circle。Circle 很有意思，因为上周的走势给了我一个做空设置，我稍后会讲，但同时它可能表明我的黑色计数还有戏。再提醒一下大家，黑色计数的目标是 465。过去两个月我一直认为这个概率很低，因为低位支撑被跌破，但有了这个高点，它开始看起来像是那个二浪的第四浪。
所以，只要它守住这个箱体的底部，也就是 56，那可能是一个非常非常低的二浪。别误会，那会把它送到我所说的 90% 失败率以下，因为那就是失败路径。任何时候某样东西以某种方式跌破 764 回撤位，90% 可能会失败。
你可以引用我的话。实际上，我会说 99%。但对我来说，以 56 买入、止损设在 48，在这个潜力下是不用想的。我不在乎它是否失败。我只是不那么看重那个仓位。但现在，让我们放大到当前的位置。
我们有更多短期的东西。再说一次，在我们到达 56 或我考虑买入的位置之前，我们有一个区间突破失败或龟汤设置，如果你喜欢 ICT 术语的话。我甚至不知道为什么他们叫它龟汤。但你可以看到价格小幅突破了我画的箱体区间，然后又回来了。
回来时还有不错的负 delta，意味着人们在卖出。也许是因为突破失败而逃之夭夭。我不知道。但这非常有趣，而且概率真的很高，回到比特币和以太坊，它会穿过这个区间，而且很可能，因为每次在区间内被买入时，它都拒绝被洗掉，但很可能快速洗一下，至少进入 55 区域。
如果是红色计数，它就会继续下跌，一直跌到 40。所以再说一次，我不会盲目在 56 买入。让它先表现出来。如果你现在想尝试这个仓位，我已经有看跌期权了，这是我在服务中建议的。如果走势发展得好，我可能会加仓。
我可能会在某个我无法交易期权的海外 K 上加杠杆基金。所以我可能会加仓。但是，当我们到达下方，如果你真正感兴趣的是做多，那就要非常小心。再说一次，它 99% 可能会失败。只要在到达 56 区域时观察市场，寻找反转，以便在跳入之前获得紧密的止损，或者如果你想在这里买一点，止损设在 47，那也合理，只是你知道，股票的问题在于它们不是 24/7 流动交易，所以我对限价买入然后设止损的问题是，如果盘后跳空下跌，你可能会得到非常糟糕的价格。
这就是问题所在。对于股票，我尤其想看到反转。以防你在它真正起作用之前隔夜被套，然后跳空下跌，退出时价格糟糕。
And then lastly I've got circle. Now, circle is interesting because uh the move it made in the last week gave me a short setup which I'll talk about it but at the same time it may indicate life for my black count and again to remind you guys what that is um it has a target of 465. I have held this as low probability over the last two months because we had breaks of support along this low but with this high here it's starting to look like that fourth wave for that two. So, as long as it holds the bottom of this box, which I have a 56, that could be a very very very low two. Now, don't get me wrong, that will send that to below what I would call the 90% failure rate because and that that is or the failure path. Anytime something breaks the 764 retrace in a way too, it 90% is likely to fail. And you can quote me on that. Actually, I would say 99%. Um, but again, uh, the thing to me is that buying at 56 with a stop at 48 is a no-brainer with this potential. And I don't care if it fails. I just simply um treat that position less um, less precious. But now, let's zoom in to where we have now. We have more short-term. And again, before we ever get to 56 or where where I will think about buying, we have a again range breakout failure or a turtle soup setup if you like the IC ICT lingo. I don't even know why they call it a turtle soup. Um, but you can see the little break over the range which I've drawn in the box and come back in. Also coming back was a nice bit of delta, negative delta, meaning people are selling into it. Maybe running for the hills as their breakout failed. I don't know. But um it's very interesting and the probability is really high again back to Bitcoin and Ether that it goes through it travels through this range and likely reasonably likely because anytime it's gotten bought in a range it's it's been refusing to flush but reasonably likely to get a quick flush and at least into that 55 region. If it's in the red count it's just going to keep going. It's going to go all the way to 40. So again I wouldn't don't buy 56 blindly. Let it show. Um, if you're, you know, you want to try this position now, I've got puts on it already, which I I uh suggested in the service. I might add to that if it develops in a nice way. I might add leverage fund in a foreign K that I don't have access to options in. Um, so I may be adding to it. Uh, but uh, when we get to the underside and if what you're real interested is longs, just be very careful in the situation. Again, it is 99% likely to fail. just um stop observe the market when it gets there at the 56 region and look for a reversal for which you can get a tight stop before you jump into it or if you want to buy a little bit here with a stop at 47 um that's reasonable just you know the problem with stocks they don't trade 247 in a liquid manner so that my my problem with um uh buying you know with a limit and then putting a stop you know is you might just get a very bad price if it gaps down um after hours. That's the problem with that. I want I would with stocks especially, I want to see a reversal. Um just in case you get caught in something overnight before it has a chance to really really work um and then get get a gap down and and a terrible price on the exit.
过去两个月我一直认为这个概率很低，因为低位支撑被跌破，但有了这个高点，它开始看起来像是那个二浪的第四浪。所以，只要它守住这个箱体的底部，也就是 56，那可能是一个非常非常低的二浪。
I have held this as low probability over the last two months because we had breaks of support along this low but with this high here it's starting to look like that fourth wave for that two. So, as long as it holds the bottom of this box, which I have a 56, that could be a very very very low two.
别误会，那会把它送到我所说的 90% 失败率以下，因为那就是失败路径。任何时候某样东西以某种方式跌破 764 回撤位，90% 可能会失败。你可以引用我的话。实际上，我会说 99%。
Now, don't get me wrong, that will send that to below what I would call the 90% failure rate because and that that is or the failure path. Anytime something breaks the 764 retrace in a way too, it 90% is likely to fail. And you can quote me on that. Actually, I would say 99%.
但对我来说，以 56 买入、止损设在 48，在这个潜力下是不用想的。我不在乎它是否失败。我只是不那么看重那个仓位。
Um, but again, uh, the thing to me is that buying at 56 with a stop at 48 is a no-brainer with this potential. And I don't care if it fails. I just simply um treat that position less um, less precious.
但现在，让我们放大到当前的位置。我们有更多短期的东西。再说一次，在我们到达 56 或我考虑买入的位置之前，我们有一个区间突破失败或龟汤设置，如果你喜欢 ICT 术语的话。我甚至不知道为什么他们叫它龟汤。
But now, let's zoom in to where we have now. We have more short-term. And again, before we ever get to 56 or where where I will think about buying, we have a again range breakout failure or a turtle soup setup if you like the IC ICT lingo. I don't even know why they call it a turtle soup.
但你可以看到价格小幅突破了我画的箱体区间，然后又回来了。回来时还有不错的负 delta，意味着人们在卖出。也许是因为突破失败而逃之夭夭。我不知道。
Um, but you can see the little break over the range which I've drawn in the box and come back in. Also coming back was a nice bit of delta, negative delta, meaning people are selling into it. Maybe running for the hills as their breakout failed. I don't know.
但这非常有趣，而且概率真的很高，回到比特币和以太坊，它会穿过这个区间，而且很可能，因为每次在区间内被买入时，它都拒绝被洗掉，但很可能快速洗一下，至少进入 55 区域。
But um it's very interesting and the probability is really high again back to Bitcoin and Ether that it goes through it travels through this range and likely reasonably likely because anytime it's gotten bought in a range it's it's been refusing to flush but reasonably likely to get a quick flush and at least into that 55 region.
如果是红色计数，它就会继续下跌，一直跌到 40。所以再说一次，我不会盲目在 56 买入。让它先表现出来。
If it's in the red count it's just going to keep going. It's going to go all the way to 40. So again I wouldn't don't buy 56 blindly. Let it show.
如果你现在想尝试这个仓位，我已经有看跌期权了，这是我在服务中建议的。如果走势发展得好，我可能会加仓。我可能会在某个我无法交易期权的海外 K 上加杠杆基金。所以我可能会加仓。
Um, if you're, you know, you want to try this position now, I've got puts on it already, which I I uh suggested in the service. I might add to that if it develops in a nice way. I might add leverage fund in a foreign K that I don't have access to options in. Um, so I may be adding to it.
但是，当我们到达下方，如果你真正感兴趣的是做多，那就要非常小心。再说一次，它 99% 可能会失败。只要在到达 56 区域时观察市场，寻找反转，以便在跳入之前获得紧密的止损，或者如果你想在这里买一点，止损设在 47，那也合理，只是你知道，股票的问题在于它们不是 24/7 流动交易，所以我对限价买入然后设止损的问题是，如果盘后跳空下跌，你可能会得到非常糟糕的价格。
这就是问题所在。对于股票，我尤其想看到反转。以防你在它真正起作用之前隔夜被套，然后跳空下跌，退出时价格糟糕。
Uh, but uh, when we get to the underside and if what you're real interested is longs, just be very careful in the situation. Again, it is 99% likely to fail. just um stop observe the market when it gets there at the 56 region and look for a reversal for which you can get a tight stop before you jump into it or if you want to buy a little bit here with a stop at 47 um that's reasonable just you know the problem with stocks they don't trade 247 in a liquid manner so that my my problem with um uh buying you know with a limit and then putting a stop you know is you might just get a very bad price if it gaps down um after hours. That's the problem with that. I want I would with stocks especially, I want to see a reversal. Um just in case you get caught in something overnight before it has a chance to really really work um and then get get a gap down and and a terrible price on the exit.