Financial Education 对 $NVDA 的判断变化
与此同时，英伟达发布了财报，大家都知道，就业绩超预期而言，所有人都知道他们会一次又一次地超预期，人们看着股价，英伟达的多头简直处于抑郁状态。现在股价盘后上涨了几个百分点，但起初，天哪，就像“哦，我的天，这股票还能涨吗？”
对吧？这有点令人沮丧，因为数字就是那么好，好得不得了。
Meanwhile, you have Nvidia coming out with earnings, and you know, as far as the beats, everybody knows they come in with the beats and beats and beats and people are like looking at the stock price and it's just like Nvidia longs were in depression. Now the stock's up a few percent after hours, but at first, man, it's just like, "Oh my gosh, like can the stock ever go up?" Right? It's just a little frustrating cuz the numbers just come in, they're just great, great, great.
今天关于英伟达的财务状况，我要给你们看一些非常有趣的东西，好吗？第三个我们要讨论的主题是英伟达。我们会仔细看英伟达的数字。关于英伟达的利润表，我有一些非常重要的东西要给你们看，好吗？
Uh there's going to be something very interesting I have to show you in regards to Nvidia's financials here today, okay? And the third third subject we'll get into is Nvidia. What is, you know, we'll go through the Nvidia numbers. I I got something very important I have to show you in regards to Nvidia's income statement, okay?
接下来，我们来谈谈英伟达。我们还能期待更少吗？不，当然不能。我告诉过你们数字会非常亮眼。我告诉过你们指引可能会比分析师的预期高出几十亿美元。这应该不足为奇。这里的利润表是A++评级，对吧？
Next up here, let's talk NVIDIA. should we have expected anything less? No, of course not. I told you guys the numbers are going to be bangers. I told you the guide's going to be likely several billion dollars ahead of where analysts are at. This is This is should come as no surprise. A plus plus grading income statement here, right?
营收增长106%，营收成本增长87%，毛利润增长113%。研发增长64%。销售及管理费用增长21%。这些数字远小于营收或毛利润的增长，所以你是赢家，赢家，鸡肉晚餐。总运营费用增长55%。
与113%的利润增长相比，这算不了什么，对吧？运营收入增长124%。其他收入增长181%。净利润增长126%。摊薄每股收益增长128%。
Revenue is up 106% cost of revenue up 87% gross profit up 113% there. R&D is up 64%. SG&A is up 21%. That's way smaller numbers than revenue or gross profit, so you're in the winner winner chicken dinner. Uh total operating expense is up 55%. It's nothing compared to 113% profit growth, right? Operating income up 124%. They had other income up 181%. Net income up 126%. Diluted EPS up 128%.
因为看看我去年或上个季度给英伟达的利润表评级，对吧？A++评级。但看看这里的区别。这里营收成本增长18%。这里营收成本现在增长87%。所以，营收增长是，好吧，这很好。营收增长比之前强得多，对吧？
上个季度是85%。这个季度是106%。但营收成本增长的百分比要大得多，所以这必须被考虑在内。
Cuz look at pull up what I graded income statement of NVIDIA last year or last year Last Last quarter, right? A++ grade. But, look at the difference here. Here, the cost of revenue is up 18%. Here, the cost of revenue is now up 87%. So, the revenue growth is like, okay, this is great. Revenue growth is much stronger than it was, right? It was 85% last quarter. This quarter was 106%. But, the percentage growth on cost of revenue going up is so much larger that that has to be like factored in and considered here.
我对英伟达财务方面唯一的担忧是，我确实担心在接下来的几个季度里，营收成本最终会开始以比营收更快的速度增长。这是一种可能性。这当然不是必然，但有可能最终开始比营收增长更快，对吧？
现在，请记住，这是一个小得多的项目，所以毛利润增长仍然会非常惊人。但是，你知道，这是你不想在英伟达身上看到的事情之一，对吧？
my only worry with with Nvidia here on the financial front is I do worry if in the next few quarters, eventually cost of revenue is going to start going up at a faster clip than revenue. It's a potential. It's certainly not a guarantee, but it's a potential that this could end up starting to grow faster than revenue, right? Now, keep in mind, it's a much smaller line item, so the gross profit growth would still be phenomenal. But, you know, it's one of those things you don't want to really see out there in regards to Nvidia, right?
现在，英伟达股价上涨了大约4%，对吧？你可能会说，英伟达怎么就这么合理呢，对吧？我的意思是，增长率太疯狂了。我的意思是，你知道，指引很好，指引很好，对吧？你看看这些数字，比如，哦，我的天，106%的营收增长，113%的毛利润增长，128%的摊薄每股收益增长。
你会认为这样的公司应该以60、90、120倍的远期市盈率交易，对吧？但英伟达的远期市盈率可能在17倍左右，大概在这个范围，对吧？这就像，怎么会？这怎么合理？
Now, Nvidia stock is up about 4%, right? And you might say, how does Nvidia make any dang sense, right? I mean, the growth rates are insane. I mean, you know, the guided great The guidance was great, right? You look at these numbers, like, oh my gosh, like, 106% revenue growth, 113% gross profit growth, 128% diluted EPS growth. You would think a company like that would be trading at a forward P of 60, 90, 120, right? But, there's Nvidia trading at a forward P of probably 17, somewhere in there ballpark, right? It's like, how? How does that make sense?
现在有大量的循环融资在进行，英伟达借钱给这家公司，然后那家公司又把钱花在英伟达的芯片上，对吧？现在有很多这种事情在发生，对吧？
There's a massive amount of circular financing going on right now, where Nvidia lends money to this company, and then that company spends money right back at Nvidia on its chips, right? There's a ton of that sort of stuff going on right now, right?
他们现在把每一分钱都花在英伟达芯片上，对吧？这从长期来看不太可能持续，对吧？那么，当放缓发生时会发生什么？利润率大幅压缩，然后净利润暴跌，每股收益暴跌。所以，这是一个我们必须经历的周期。
现在还不是周期，但一旦到了2027年，就越来越近了，对吧？
They're just spending every single dollar they possibly can on Nvidia chips right now, right? That's not likely sustainable over the long term, right? And so, what happens when a slowdown happens? Margins compress substantially, which then plummets net income, plummets earnings per share. And so, that's a cycle we're going to have to go through. It's not a cycle right now, but once you get to 2027, it's that much closer, right?
所以，这就是为什么人们不愿意，因为，你知道，我今天甚至在CNBC上，华尔街的人都在说，“人们怎么不愿意为英伟达支付高价？”这是因为他们明白在这种情况下没有人想成为最后的接盘者，对吧？
而且英伟达的利润率从长期来看是不可持续的。它们在未来12个月里能持续吗？可能。可能。它们在未来三四年里能持续吗？不能。在我看来不能。
And so, that's why people aren't willing to, cuz, you know, and I even on CNBC today, you know, the Wall Streeters were talking like, "How people not willing to pay up for Nvidia?" It's like, because they understand that no one wants to be left holding the bag in this situation, right? And Nvidia's margins are not sustainable over the long term. Are they sustainable, you know, for the next 12 months? Probably. Probably. Are they sustainable over the next, you know, three, you know, four years? No. Not in my opinion.
所以，这是必须考虑的因素，这就是为什么你不会看到人们跑出去说，“哦，我的天，我现在必须买下所有能买的英伟达股票，”对吧？这就是正在发生的事情。
And so, that's something that has to be factored in here, and that's why you're not getting people to run out there and say, "Oh my gosh, I got to buy every Nvidia share I can right now," right? That's what's going on here.
要明白英伟达是一个巨大的权重，占标普500指数的7.5%权重，对吧？英伟达股价正在上涨。它可能会推动整个半导体股票上涨，诸如此类的事情。
understand Nvidia is a huge weight, 7 and 1/2% weight for the S&P 500, right? that Nvidia stock is moving up. It could push semiconductor stocks in general up, those sorts of things.
英伟达将经历一个时期，明年2027年他们的营收增长将非常疲软，非常疲软。我觉得人们还没有充分考虑到英伟达明年的营收增长会有多疲软。
Nvidia's going to go through a period where their revenue growth is going to be really lame next year in 2027, like really lame. Like I don't think people are quite factored in how lame Nvidia's revenue growth is going to be next year.
英伟达明年的数字将会很疲软。英伟达明年可能要为15%的营收增长而战，对吧？如果幸运的话，也许20%。而且，你知道，大家都习惯了英伟达100%以上的营收增长。所以突然之间，你带来20%的营收增长，人们就会觉得，呃，对吧？
Nvidia's numbers are going to be lame next year. And Nvidia's going to be battling it out for probably 15% revenue growth next year, right? Maybe 20% uh if they're lucky. And you know, everybody's gotten used to 100% plus revenue growth for Nvidia. So then all of a sudden you come in with maybe 20% revenue growth, people are like ugh, right?
对吧？你会看到SaaS领域有一些兴奋点。英伟达的数字出来了。人们继续在花钱。事情就是这样。对吧？但这里的重点是，无论英伟达是超出这些数字还是低于这些数字，如果他们超出40亿而不是30亿，或者你知道，所有这些，女士们先生们，要关注长期。
Right? You're going to get some excitement coming in SaaS. You got Nvidia numbers out here. People are continuing to spend. That is what it is. Right? But the moral of the story is here, whether Nvidia had come in and beat these numbers, missed these numbers, if they beat by 4 billion instead of 3 billion, or you know, all that stuff, focus on long term here, ladies and gentlemen.
巨头就是英伟达。他们下周公布财报。市值5.2万亿美元。这是个疯狂的数字，对吧？看我的整个屏幕都冻结了。这么荒谬的数字。5.2万亿美元。它是巨头。这很重要。这将影响整个市场。这将影响大量股票，包括我个人持有的一些股票。
the big dog. It's Nvidia. They're reporting earnings next week. $5.2 trillion market cap. That's a crazy number, right? Look at my whole screen just froze. Such a ridiculous number. $5.2 trillion. It's the big dog. It's going to be important. This is going to affect the entire market. This is going to affect a ton of stocks, including some stocks that I personally own.
现在，关于英伟达，这些是分析师的预期。好的。分析师预计营收略低于920亿美元，每股收益208，以及约1050亿美元的指引。
Now, when it comes to Nvidia, these are the what analysts are expecting. Okay. Analysts are expecting just under $92 billion of revenue, EPS of 208, and a guide for around $105 billion.
以下是英伟达实际上需要达到的数字，才有可能让股价走高。好的，英伟达需要本季度营收达到940亿美元或更多。他们需要每股收益达到225或更好。而最重要的事情就在这里，指引。如果，你知道，他们不能接近105。
如果他们接近105，投资者不会喜欢。分析师不会喜欢。没人会喜欢。他们真的需要更接近109或更好，就他们的指引而言。
Here's the numbers that it actually need Nvidia needs to do to likely have that stock go higher. Okay, Nvidia needs to come in with $94 billion or more of revenue for this last quarter. They need to come in with EPS of$ 225 or better. And the thing that matters the most is right here, the guidance. If you know, they can't be anywhere around 105. If they're around 105, investors aren't going to like that. Analysts aren't going to like that. No one's going to like that. They really need to be more toward 109 or better in regards to their guide here.
所以，是的，老兄。这是压力大的时期，你知道，当涉及到英伟达时，比如对这家公司的期望有多高。仅仅符合预期是不够的。仅仅超过预期是不够的。你必须有几个十亿美元的超出，才能真正让人们为这只股票兴奋。期权市场暗示英伟达将波动约6%。
So, yeah, man. It's stressful times, you know, when it comes to Nvidian, like how high the expectations are for this company. It's not good enough to just come in line. It's not good enough just to beat. You've got to have several billion dollars of beats to really get people excited about this stock. The options market's implying a move of around 6% in regards to Nvidia.
这并不意味着英伟达注定失败或类似的事情。我在过去一两年也解释过这一点。英伟达已经经历了大幅上涨。对英伟达来说好消息是，它没有以极高的估值进入。英伟达24年远期市盈率16。这些数字不大，特别是对于英伟达所呈现的那种增长率来说。
it doesn't mean Nvidia is doomed or anything like that. And I've explained that for the last year or two as well. Nvidia already had its massive move. The good news for Nvidia is it's not going in with super rich valuation. Ford P on Nvidia 24 year forward on 16. Those aren't big numbers, especially for the type of growth rates Nvidia's putting up.
对于像英伟达这样的股票，你看它，你会想，天哪，增长率太疯狂了。这太疯狂了。为什么它只有20多倍的前瞻市盈率？那太疯狂了。看看增长率。嗯，事情是这样的。如果，你知道，如果英伟达明年营收增长下降到20%到25%，仍然是一个很好的数字，那么2028年当公司营收增长停滞或略微下降时会发生什么？女士们先生们，那就是你遇到麻烦的地方，对吧？
And for a stock like Nvidia, like you look at it, you're like, man, the growth rate's so insane. Like this is crazy. Why is it trading at a 20 something forward P? That's that's insane. Look at the growth rates. Well, here's the thing. If you know, if Nvidia goes down to 20 25% revenue growth next year, still a great number, what happens 2028 when revenue growth stagnates for the company or maybe slightly moves down? That's ladies and gentlemen where you run into trouble, right?
所以故事的寓意是，英伟达，只要他们营收超出几十亿美元，指引超出几十亿美元，我们就安全了。市场的顶部可以走高。如果指引只是大致符合预期，那可能会削弱市场，因为你要明白英伟达市值如此之大。
它可以把QQQ拉下来。它可以把标普500拉下来。它可以把半导体拉下来，因为它是最大的权重。所以，就像，你知道，那里发生几个不同的因素，对吧？
And so the moral of the story is here, Nvidia, as long as they come in with several billion dollar beat on revenue, several billion dollar beat on guide, we're in the clear. The the the top of the market can move higher. If that guide is just roughly in line, it that's [sighs] that could definitely weaken the market because you got to understand Nvidia is such a big market cap. can bring down the Q's. It can bring down the S&P 500. It can bring down the semiconductors because the biggest weight. So, it's like, you know, several different factors happen there, right?