NVDA必须在营收和指引上大幅超出市场共识预期才能支撑进一步上行；符合预期的结果被视为负面。

the big dog. It's Nvidia. They're reporting earnings next week. $5.2 trillion market cap. That's a crazy number, right? Look at my whole screen just froze. Such a ridiculous number. $5.2 trillion. It's the big dog. It's going to be important. This is going to affect the entire market. This is going to affect a ton of stocks, including some stocks that I personally own.

Now, when it comes to Nvidia, these are the what analysts are expecting. Okay. Analysts are expecting just under $92 billion of revenue, EPS of 208, and a guide for around $105 billion.

Here's the numbers that it actually need Nvidia needs to do to likely have that stock go higher. Okay, Nvidia needs to come in with $94 billion or more of revenue for this last quarter. They need to come in with EPS of$ 225 or better. And the thing that matters the most is right here, the guidance. If you know, they can't be anywhere around 105. If they're around 105, investors aren't going to like that. Analysts aren't going to like that. No one's going to like that. They really need to be more toward 109 or better in regards to their guide here.

So, yeah, man. It's stressful times, you know, when it comes to Nvidian, like how high the expectations are for this company. It's not good enough to just come in line. It's not good enough just to beat. You've got to have several billion dollars of beats to really get people excited about this stock. The options market's implying a move of around 6% in regards to Nvidia.

it doesn't mean Nvidia is doomed or anything like that. And I've explained that for the last year or two as well. Nvidia already had its massive move. The good news for Nvidia is it's not going in with super rich valuation. Ford P on Nvidia 24 year forward on 16. Those aren't big numbers, especially for the type of growth rates Nvidia's putting up.

And for a stock like Nvidia, like you look at it, you're like, man, the growth rate's so insane. Like this is crazy. Why is it trading at a 20 something forward P? That's that's insane. Look at the growth rates. Well, here's the thing. If you know, if Nvidia goes down to 20 25% revenue growth next year, still a great number, what happens 2028 when revenue growth stagnates for the company or maybe slightly moves down? That's ladies and gentlemen where you run into trouble, right?

And so the moral of the story is here, Nvidia, as long as they come in with several billion dollar beat on revenue, several billion dollar beat on guide, we're in the clear. The the the top of the market can move higher. If that guide is just roughly in line, it that's [sighs] that could definitely weaken the market because you got to understand Nvidia is such a big market cap. can bring down the Q's. It can bring down the S&P 500. It can bring down the semiconductors because the biggest weight. So, it's like, you know, several different factors happen there, right?