现在让我们继续讨论下一只我想谈的股票,那就是Skyward。Skyward是我在频道上多次提到过的股票,我实际上在40多美元的低位买入了少量仓位,但最终卖出了,因为我无法对这个业务建立信心,因为它属于保险行业,而保险行业往往超出我的能力圈。
这个行业对我来说真的很难理解。话虽如此,这只股票表现非常好,尤其是在财报发布之后。从谷底到峰值,它上涨了约53%。而且它仍然比财报前的低点上涨了约35%。我仍然认为这是一家管理良好、有趣的保险业务。
所以,我想带你看看财报中的一些亮点。这张截图显示了财报的摘要。在这里我们可以看到保费增长了17.5%。总承保保费增长了13.3%。综合成本率仍然很低,为89.5%。他们已经开始回购股票。
账面价值增长了14.6%,每股收益增长了46%,达到130美元。这些数字本身非常令人印象深刻,但更令人印象深刻的是,整个保险行业正在经历一个更疲软的市场。我不知道你们是否知道,保险行业本质上具有相当的周期性,而Skyward的许多竞争对手的增长持平或略有下降。
所以,Skyward是我在整个保险行业中看到的少数仍在增长的企业之一,而且不仅仅是增长,还是以两位数的速度增长。我相信这表明该业务实际上仍然管理得很好,并且他们有一点竞争优势。
下一张截图显示了一些长期增长的KPI。我们可以看到他们的承保保费增长非常强劲。再次,每股收益达到了1.30美元的历史新高,并且每个季度都在持续增长。按年化计算,Skyward现在的每股收益为5.20美元。
正如我们所见,账面价值增长了14.6%,现在达到28.55美元。所以,总的来说,Skyward仍然在发布强劲的业绩,并看到非常好的增长。下一张来自他们季度投资者演示文稿的截图显示了他们的保险组合,非常多元化。
他们在11个不同的行业和部门运营,最大的只占组合的12%。这确实给了Skyward一个竞争优势,因为如果他们组合中的一个领域出现疲软,那么他们可以放慢甚至缩减该组合,转向组合中正在增长的不同部分。
这就是他们如何在不同市场周期中持续增长。下一张截图正是我要说的。他们的总承保保费以及意外和健康部门增长了58%。然而,他们的专属部门下降了16.6%。如果你暂停视频,看看这里所有不同的行业,你可以看到他们正在加速的行业和正在收缩的行业。
所以,如果某条保险业务线出现疲软,他们可以放慢它,并加速那些表现强劲的,这让他们能够跨越市场周期增长。现在,让我们回到Stock Unlock,我想快速展示几个KPI。第一个就是他们的长期收入增长。
自2021年第四季度以来,他们的收入年复合增长率约为29.4%。你可以清楚地看到,他们的收入增长率实际上在加速,这目前是保险行业中的一个明显异常值。Skyward的盈利也是如此。
然而,从历史上看,他们的盈利波动更大一些。但从长期来看,他们的复合增长率为42.4%,在最近一个季度,他们的盈利同比仍增长46%,现在盈利达到1.88亿美元,创下历史新高。让我们快速看一下他们的市盈率,他们目前的市盈率约为13.6。
显然,他们不像我最初开始报道这只股票时那么便宜,当时市盈率约为10倍,但如果你相对于他们的历史来看,这只股票仍处于其区间的低端。如果我们再看一下他们的远期市盈率,我们可以看到现在大约在11倍,这仍然远低于公司的历史平均和中位数。
然而,同样,它不像6月份那样低,当时远期市盈率仅为8倍。所以,对于Skyward,我认为今年早些时候它出现的巨大估值差距已经基本修正。然而,我仍然认为这个业务今天以非常合理的价格出售,特别是如果它能在长期内继续以两位数的速度增长,尤其是当我们离开保险市场的周期性下行周期时。
这个业务在增长方面做得非常出色。它的管理层似乎非常保守,看起来是一家经营良好的保险公司。所以,这是一只我肯定会加入你的观察名单的股票,但同样,它不会是我加入我的投资组合的股票,因为我试了又试。
我实际上买了少量仓位,然后卖掉了,因为它超出了我的能力圈,我无法获得信心。
So now let's move on to the next stock that I want to talk about which is Skyward. Skyward is a stock that I've also talked about on my channel here a few times and I actually bought a small position in the low 40s but I ended up selling it because I couldn't build the conviction in this business since it is in the insurance industry and the insurance industry tends to be out of my circle of competence. It's just a really hard industry for me to understand. That said, the stock has done very well, especially after reporting its earnings. And from trough to peak, it did see about a 53% gain there. And it is still up about 35% from the lows that it set in before earnings. And I continue to believe that this is still a very well-managed interesting insurance business. So, I want to run you through some of the highlights from the earnings report. So, this screenshot shows us the summary of the earnings. And here we can see that premiums were up 17.5%. Gross written premiums increased by 13.3%. The combined ratio is still very low at 89.5%. They have begun buying back shares. Book value is up 14.6% and earnings per share increased by 46% to $130. These numbers on their own are very impressive, but they're even more impressive because the insurance industry as a whole is going through a softer market. I don't know if you guys know this, but the insurance industry is quite cyclical by nature, and a lot of Skyward's competitors are seeing flat to slight declines in their growth. So, Skyward is one of the only businesses that I have seen in the entire insurance industry that is still growing and not just growing, but also growing by well into the double digits. And I believe that this suggests that the business is actually still very well-managed and they have a little bit of a competitive advantage. This next screenshot shows us some of the longerterm growth of their KPIs. And we can see that their written premiums are growing very strong. Again, earnings per share hit an all-time high of $1.30 and it is consistently growing on a quarterly basis. On an annualized basis, Skyward is also doing $5.20 in earnings per share now. And as we saw, book value grew 14.6% 6% to $28.55 now. So across the board, Skyward is still posting strong results and seeing very good growth. This next screenshot from their quarterly investor presentation shows us their insurance portfolio and it is very diverse. They operate in 11 different industries and divisions with the largest being only 12% of the portfolio. And this does give Skyward a competitive advantage because if one area of their portfolio is seeing weakness, then they can slow that down or even shrink that portfolio and go over to the different segments of their portfolio that are seeing growth. And this is how they continue to grow through different market cycles. And this next screenshot shows exactly what I am talking about. So their gross premiums written and their accident and health segment is up 58%. However, their captive segment saw a 16.6% 6% decline. And if you just pause the video and take a look at all of their different industries here, you can see the ones that they are accelerating and the ones that they are pulling back on. So again, if a certain line of insurance is seeing weakness, then they can slow it down and accelerate the ones that are seeing strength and that lets them grow through market cycles. So now, let's head back over to Stock Unlock, and I want to show you a couple of their KPIs here really quickly. And the first one is simply their long-term revenue growth. Since the fourth quarter of 2021, they have compounded their revenue by about 29.4% annually. And you can clearly see that their revenue growth rates are actually accelerating and this is a clear outlier in the insurance industry right now. This is the same story with Skyward's earnings. However, their earnings have been a little bit more volatile historically. But over the longer term, they have compounded by 42.4% 4% and in the most recent quarter, their earnings were still up 46% on a year-over-year basis, doing $188 million in earnings now and hitting an all-time high. Let's now quickly take a look at their PE and they're currently sitting at a price to earnings ratio of about 13.6. They're clearly not as cheap as they were when I initially started covering the stock when they were around 10 times earnings, but if you take a look relative to their history, the stock is still on the lower end of its range. If we also take a look at their forward price to earnings ratio, we can see that it is sitting at about 11 now, which is still well below the company's historical averages and median. However, again, it's not as low as it was back in June when it was selling for only eight times forward earnings. So, when it comes to Skyward, I think that it's huge valuation disconnect that it was seeing earlier on this year has largely corrected itself. However, I still think that this business is selling for a very fair price today, especially if it can continue to grow by double digits over the longer term, especially as we leave that cyclical down cycle in the insurance market. This business has done an incredible job growing. Its management seems very conservative and it seems like a very well-run insurance company. So, this is one that I would definitely add to your watch list, but again, it's not one that I'm going to be adding to my portfolio because I've tried and tried. I actually bought a small position and then I ended up selling it because it's just out of my circle of competence and I couldn't gain