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$SKYWDaniel Pronk发布 2026-08-25
5 Stocks I'm Selling, Buying & Watching After Earnings
Skyward估值合理且增长潜力强劲,但说话者因缺乏信念而不买入。
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专属业务板块下降了 16.6%,降幅为 6%。如果你暂停视频,看看他们所有的不同行业,你可以看到他们正在加速哪些业务,以及正在缩减哪些业务。因此,如果某条保险业务线出现疲软,他们可以放慢该业务,并加速那些表现强劲的业务,这让他们能够穿越市场周期实现增长。

captive segment saw a 16.6% 6% decline. And if you just pause the video and take a look at all of their different industries here, you can see the ones that they are accelerating and the ones that they are pulling back on. So again, if a certain line of insurance is seeing weakness, then they can slow it down and accelerate the ones that are seeing strength and that lets them grow through market cycles.

现在,让我们回到 Stock Unlock,我想快速向你展示他们的一些关键绩效指标。第一个就是他们的长期营收增长。自 2021 年第四季度以来,他们的营收年复合增长率约为 29.4%。

你可以清楚地看到,他们的营收增长率实际上正在加速,这目前是保险行业中的一个明显异类。

So now, let's head back over to Stock Unlock, and I want to show you a couple of their KPIs here really quickly. And the first one is simply their long-term revenue growth. Since the fourth quarter of 2021, they have compounded their revenue by about 29.4% annually. And you can clearly see that their revenue growth rates are actually accelerating and this is a clear outlier in the insurance industry right now.

Skyward 的盈利情况也是如此。然而,从历史上看,他们的盈利波动性稍大一些。但从长期来看,他们的盈利复合增长率为 42.4%,增幅为 4%,而在最近一个季度,他们的盈利同比仍增长 46%,目前盈利达到 1.88 亿美元,创下历史新高。

This is the same story with Skyward's earnings. However, their earnings have been a little bit more volatile historically. But over the longer term, they have compounded by 42.4% 4% and in the most recent quarter, their earnings were still up 46% on a year-over-year basis, doing $188 million in earnings now and hitting an all-time high.

现在让我们快速看一下他们的市盈率,目前他们的市盈率约为 13.6。显然,他们不像我最初开始报道该股时那样便宜,当时市盈率约为 10 倍,但如果你相对于他们的历史来看,该股仍处于其区间的较低端。

如果我们再看一下他们的远期市盈率,可以看到目前约为 11,仍远低于公司的历史平均水平和中位数。然而,这也不像 6 月份那样低,当时远期市盈率仅为 8 倍。

Let's now quickly take a look at their PE and they're currently sitting at a price to earnings ratio of about 13.6. They're clearly not as cheap as they were when I initially started covering the stock when they were around 10 times earnings, but if you take a look relative to their history, the stock is still on the lower end of its range. If we also take a look at their forward price to earnings ratio, we can see that it is sitting at about 11 now, which is still well below the company's historical averages and median. However, again, it's not as low as it was back in June when it was selling for only eight times forward earnings.

因此,对于 Skyward,我认为今年早些时候出现的巨大估值差距已在很大程度上得到修正。然而,我仍然认为该业务目前售价非常合理,特别是如果它能在长期内继续以两位数的速度增长,尤其是当我们走出保险市场的周期性下行周期时。

So, when it comes to Skyward, I think that it's huge valuation disconnect that it was seeing earlier on this year has largely corrected itself. However, I still think that this business is selling for a very fair price today, especially if it can continue to grow by double digits over the longer term, especially as we leave that cyclical down cycle in the insurance market.

这家公司在增长方面做得非常出色。其管理层似乎非常保守,而且它看起来是一家管理良好的保险公司。所以,这绝对是我会加入你的观察名单的一只股票,但同样,它不会是我要加入我的投资组合的股票,因为我试了又试。

我实际上买了一个小仓位,但后来卖掉了,因为它超出了我的能力圈,我无法获得我投资组合中想要的那种深度信念。但我仍然认为它是一家非常有趣的公司,这就是为什么我想继续报道它,并把它放在你的雷达上。

This business has done an incredible job growing. Its management seems very conservative and it seems like a very well-run insurance company. So, this is one that I would definitely add to your watch list, but again, it's not one that I'm going to be adding to my portfolio because I've tried and tried. I actually bought a small position and then I ended up selling it because it's just out of my circle of competence and I couldn't gain that deep level of conviction that I want in my portfolio. But I still think that it is a very interesting business and that's why I want to continue covering it and putting it on your radar.

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