ETF。他们基本上必须在一天结束时卖出。所以那很糟糕。比如 Socks 将不得不在一天结束时卖出。有时这实际上会导致市场在一天结束时更糟地抛售。因为他们基本上是在弱势中卖出。通常我们的逻辑是，我们应该在弱势中买入。
但那不适用于杠杆。像往常一样，杠杆是致命一击。所以我喜欢 Socks 中的成分股。我认为那里有一些很棒的公司。但是，杠杆会削弱持久力。
ETFs. they'll have to basically sell into red at the end of the day. And so that sucks. Like Socks is going to have to sell at the end of the day. And sometimes that actually leads the market to sell off worse at the end of the day. Uh because they're basically selling into weakness. And usually our logic is, oh, we should be buying into weakness. Uh but that doesn't work with leverage. As usual, leverage is is the the death nail. Uh, and so I I love the components in socks. I think there's some fantastic companies in there. Uh, you know, but but leverage will kill the staying power.
35岁的Cody刚刚问道：“嘿Kevin，我在顶部全仓买入了Socks，这是一只3倍杠杆的半导体ETF。我该怎么办？”首先我们必须知道的是，3倍杠杆ETF承担的风险远高于这些基本面持仓本身，这些公司都是很棒的公司。
但在三星的股票回购未达预期、且其回购规模仅为最乐观估计的一半左右的日子里，整个市场都会下跌。甚至可能仅仅因为韩国的一个预期落空，就导致整个半导体指数下跌。这本身就是关于避免杠杆ETF（尤其是3倍杠杆）的最重要教训之一。
你知道有人申请过5倍杠杆ETF吗？美国证券交易委员会（SEC）最终终于穿上了监管的裤子，否决了这些申请，拒绝了任何超过3倍杠杆的产品。谢天谢地他们这么做了，因为7月份所有那些5倍杠杆ETF都会归零。
而杠杆ETF的问题是，一旦归零，就不会再回升。一只3倍杠杆ETF只需要标的股票平均下跌约33%（我们这里四舍五入）就能让整个指数归零，然后被清算。清算意味着归零，你什么都拿不回来，而且不会反弹。
如果英伟达下跌，即使英伟达下跌80%（这里只是极端举例），它也不会归零。而这种心理驱动因素不幸地导致大多数人会在最糟糕的时候卖出杠杆ETF。这意味着你在最糟糕的时候买入，在最糟糕的时候卖出。
这是不幸的心理，因为你知道在下跌过程中存在归零的风险。所以有些人本来可以坚定持有单只股票，却无法坚定持有三倍杠杆产品，因为他们知道它确实有可能归零。显然任何公司都可能归零，但我想说，一万只3倍杠杆ETF会先于像英伟达这样的公司归零，对吧？
所以每种情况都有可能性，只是概率不同。虽然我不能给Cody提供个性化的财务建议，但我发现，如果你每天都想着那个该死的指数，你可能对单一证券的敞口过大了。而消除情绪的最简单方法之一是设置移动止损。
这样，当英伟达财报公布，整个半导体指数反弹时（因为我们克服了Kevin Worsh或Scott Besson的担忧，或伊朗D-Day的担忧），这只ETF就会像它应得的那样反弹。
很好。那么你的卖出底线就上移了。他说的是20%到30%的移动止损。这个底线会很好地向上移动。很好。然后如果它再次下跌，你被止损出局，你敲响了铃。很好。你只是收回了一些额外资本。
但如果它继续上涨，至少你消除了情绪，不会一路跌到零。就我个人而言，我认为这一切的教训（我知道这对Cody的处境来说很糟糕，因为他已经深陷其中），但我认为对其他所有人的教训是，杠杆正是股市中毁灭性的东西。
最好的情况是，你的配置方式使得即使英伟达下跌80%也无所谓，因为你会看着它说：“无所谓，它在打折，我会再买一点。我知道它不会归零。”英伟达是一家伟大的公司。费城半导体指数的成分股都是伟大的公司。
AMD、台积电、博通，多么棒的公司。Marvell和博通正在制造的ASIC芯片确实是AI在更便宜芯片上的未来。这些都是很棒的公司，但你可能因为杠杆而被迫在底部割肉这些好公司。远离杠杆。希望这有帮助。
Cody who's 35 just asked, "Hey Kevin, I full ported into Socks at the top, which is a 3x leveraged semiconductor ETF. What do I do?" Here's the first thing we have to know. A 3xle leveraged ETF carries a lot more risk than just these fundamental holdings, which these are fantastic companies. But on a day when Samsung misses expectations for their buyback and they come in at basically half of the most bullish estimates for their buybacks, the entire market goes down. And it could be literally something as silly as expectations getting missed in South Korea that brings an entire semiconductor index down. That in alone is one of the greatest lessons in avoiding leveraged ETFs, especially 3x leveraged. Did you know there were applications for 5x leveraged ETFs? The SEC actually finally put their regulatory pants on and canned those applications denying anything over 3x leveraged. And thank goodness they did because in July all of those 5x leveraged ETFs would have gone to zero. And the thing about a leveraged ETF is when it goes to zero, it doesn't come up again. A 3x leveraged ETF only needs to see 33% selling on average of the underlying stocks approximately. We're rounding here to see the entire index go to zero and then it's liquidated. and liquidated mean at at zero means you get nothing back and it's not bouncing up. If Nvidia goes down, even if Nvidia goes down 80%. Just to be ridiculously extreme, it's not going to zero. And that psychological driver is unfortunately why most people are going to sell out of a leveraged ETF at the worst time. It means you buy at the worst time and you sell at the worst time. That's the unfortunate psychology because you know on the way down there's a risk of it going to zero. So you have people who would otherwise diamond hand an individual stock that can't diamond hand a triple leverage because they know there's a chance it's actually going to go to zero. Obviously any company could go to zero, but you know I would say uh 10,000 3x leveraged ETFs will go to zero before a company like Nvidia goes to zero, right? So there's a possibility to each. It's just probabilities for all of them. Now, while I can't give personalized financial advice to Cody, one of the things I find is that if you're thinking about that darn index every single day, you're probably overexposed to a single security. And one of the easiest ways to take the emotion out of it is set a trailing stop. So that way Nvidia earnings come in and the entire semiconductor index rebounds because we get over some of the Kevin Worsh or Scott Besson concerns or Iran D-Day concerns and this puppy rebounds like it deserves to. Great. Then your floor of selling has moved up. He said a 20 30% trailing loss. That thing moves up nicely. Great. And then if it goes down again and you ding out, you ring the bell. Great. You just picked up some extra capital. But if it keeps going, at least you've removed the emotion and you don't ride it to zero. Personally, I think the lesson in all of it, and I know it sucks for Cody's situation because he's already in it, but I think the lesson to everybody else, if everybody else can win from that, is leverage is exactly what destroys in the stock market. Best case scenario, you're allocated in such a way it doesn't matter if Nvidia goes down 80% because you look at it and go, "Whatever, it's on sale. I'll buy a little more. I know it's not going to zero." Nvidia is a great company. The components of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, they are great companies. AMD, uh, Taiwan Semiconductor, Broadcom, what a fantastic company. The ASIC chips that Marll and Broadcom are making are really the future of AI on cheaper chipsets. These are fantastic companies, but you could get paperhanded out of fantastic companies because of leverage. Stay away from leverage. Hopefully that's helpful.