Do not buy AAPL; valuation is too high (P/E 33, price $316 vs intrinsic $214) with ~30% downside risk.

Apple recorded an impressive 16 % increase in total revenue to $109.4 billion . Furthermore, the management team anticipates another 10% growth in the next quarter, which will end in September.

This is even before the launch of Apple's foldable phone, which is expected to be released perhaps during the upcoming holiday season . Does all of this make Apple stock a good investment opportunity to buy?

Apple benefits from a user base of over 2.5 billion devices worldwide .

This is a base of customers who purchase services for those devices, and over time, many of those devices become outdated and need updating and replacement. Apple has a very strong customer retention rate.

Customers who enter the Apple ecosystem often remain within that ecosystem for many, many years .

The devices are integrated with each other, making it extremely difficult and expensive to move outside of the Apple system. This can be done , but it is cumbersome and time-consuming, and consumers simply prefer to upgrade to another Apple device because its devices have served them well.

The devices are working efficiently. It can be argued that it is better than the competition when measured across several important consumer criteria, and people are willing to pay high prices for Apple devices compared to other options available in the market.

All of this led to a surge in Apple's sales, exceeding $466 billion . This represents more than double the $225 billion the company made in 2017. This is despite the fact that Apple has lacked innovation in the past decade, particularly in the iPhone category where improvements have been incremental year after year.

That's why I think there's a lot of excitement surrounding the foldable iPhone. If it is released to the market, it could be an incentive that triggers a massive upgrade cycle from existing customers, and perhaps attracts customers from outside the Apple ecosystem who have been hesitant to switch .

In addition, the foldable iPhone is expected to sell for roughly double the average selling price of the current lineup. I estimate a starting price point of $1500 if a foldable iPhone is released.

So, sales are booming , and this has led to an improved operating margin for the company, which reached a record high of 33.2% in the last twelve months.

However, there are many headwinds. Apple cited the memory price cycle, a situation they don't expect to occur even once every 100 years. The shortage of memory supplies has led Apple to lower its sales forecast for the next quarter and raise prices in several product categories, with CEO Tim Cook even indicating that it may be necessary to raise iPhone prices as well.

This is part of the problem and part of the risks of Apple's business model strategy. Remember that Apple relies on third parties to manufacture almost everything , right?

Currently, Apple faces the risk of having an external supply chain where there is no vertical integration, meaning it does not have the same degree of control over the supply chain as a company that might be vertically integrated.

However, despite these challenges, Apple delivers excellent performance, which is undoubtedly impressive.

When you look at the return on invested capital, you will see the benefits of this business model. Apple's asset-light business model allows it to achieve industry-leading returns on invested capital of 70%.

This represents three times its level in 2017 as Apple moves towards this business model.

Now, with the lack of memory and other supply constraints, we also see the downside of this strategy.

Based on the price-to-earnings ratio, Apple stock is trading at levels close to its most expensive in several years. It is trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 33 with sales being activated. It achieves record operating profit margins.

The return on invested capital is excellent. And all this before the launch of the long-awaited foldable iPhone.

Investors also appreciated that Apple had not invested much in artificial intelligence and had left that to others, as investors were unhappy with the massive capital expenditure of many of its peers in the big technology sector.

So I also wanted to look at the valuation using my discounted cash flow model, and Apple stock looks similarly expensive when viewed on that basis. At $316, it is more than $100 more expensive than its current intrinsic value of $214.

This leaves Apple's stock down by approximately 30%, despite its excellent performance. I believe that investor enthusiasm has already been factored into the current market price.

So, to answer the question of whether I think Apple stock represents a buying opportunity right now, I would say no. I believe the assessment assumes perfect performance in the face of macroeconomic headwinds that could worsen for Apple given its business model in a supply-limited environment .

I will wait for a better opportunity to buy Apple stock, and I currently classify the company as a hold.