$CRWD

CRWD is undervalued; Wall Street underestimates AI-driven cyber security demand and CRWD's ability to capture it via the Falcon platform, leading to faster-than-expected growth.

BullishHe framed it in years
“The AI Stock Rally is BACK. For Now.”
Meet KevinPublished Aug 27 · 100 passages

Jump to any passage

100 passages
2:59274:26

Oopsy dupsies and Crowd Strike up about 10%. Uh especially with all the cyber security news going on. Not terribly much of a surprise. We've got exposure to Crowd Strike and Salesforce which we're really excited about.

These guys just kicking butt cuz we've been sending out alerts for buying the dip on these.

Uh I mean, you're up 14% now on Crowd Strike, which is great and and that's going to lift the other cyber security plays as well.

As I'm talking about it, dude, freaking Crowd Strike. Damn it. It keeps pumping. Uh which, you know, like I'm excited about because we own, but then I I always have this like struggle inside where it's like I wish then I had more, right?

Crowd strike 17%.

I really want to go through cyber uh and Salesforce maybe as sort of like a joint vid or topic. The both of them are skyrocketing. Own both of them. Uh, obviously they are a big W, but it'd be nice to see some of the notes that we're getting from the earnings calls on these.

Crowd Strike and Cerebrris today have announced a strategic part strategic partnership between the industry's leading AI native security platform and the world's fastest AI inference.

Right. Crowd Strike will leverage Cerebrus' industryleading inference speed to help power Falcon AI detection and response.

That's freaking awesome. While Cerebrris standardizes on the Crowdstrike Falcon platform to secure its business, right, that's fine. So, they'll use that as well. Together, the companies are pairing infant speed with AI native security for enterprises and deploying it at scale.

Hell yeah. Cyber security has been changed by AI. Defending against AI blah blah blah inferences where AI creates value and cyber security is one of the clearest uh examples where speed matters. Security cannot wait in the queue.

What about fast fast fast growing tools Kodak Claude Agentic we're seeing 400% more growth in Claude. Okay. Wait is this in our endpoint. See that's what I literally said. That's why I got so excited about them.

Uh in our uh our endpoint business accelerated for the fourth consecutive quarter as customers look to securing AI attack surface. seeing a dramatic a dramatic expansion in the work on endpoint both through fast growing tools such as codeex and claude as well as agentic applications in our sampling we've seen more than 400% growth in cloud usage and more than 100% growth in custom agent usage on endpoints wow and that was in in in recent months yeah I mean claude did boom at end of Q1 right enterprises look to deploy these new technologies instead of turning trust in crowd strikes.

So, this is uh this is an interesting note here on claude. Let's write that down. I've got customers tell us that point in time posture scans are no longer enough to protect us from fastmoving threats that now proliferate in seconds.

A mega technology conglomerate opted to use Falcon Cloud Security for our runtime superiority in an eight figure win.

The Mythos moment transform the market needs for exposure management pressuring antiquated vulnerabilities for the bygone era. Totally agree. This is such AI is such a boon for cyber

Inflection has become acceleration. New bars. That's a nice little line that honestly sounds like they wrote it with AI. Alltime new record ARR. I do wonder their net revenue retention how that grew.

Oh, there it is. Flex subscription model accelerating. Oh, no, that's 101 year. That's that's growth on Falcon. So, Grow Falcon's doubling. I wonder if we can get segment revenues here and see how much that um provides.

We're in an arms race. AI is driving more cyber attacks. AI is driving more uh AI spending. AI cyber security spending. Yeah, exactly. It's it's like, you know, the more AI spending goes into the attacks, the more goes into the defense, right? It's actually kind of brilliant.

So the 10 Q unodudited where any let me see can I get segment breakdown quality engineer consultant oh for sure that's awesome yeah consulting I feel like is so aided by AI because you can actually get a human expert who can put you know the human in the loop on AI that's a great business to be in now with AI.

Uh okay. So we need segments. I see us is 65% of revenues. Segment information single reporting segment. Great. Great. So that's right here. So you could see that they don't segment out uh single reporting segment single segment.

So we don't get to see Falcon broken out and then we can see it was 65% United States.

Oops. Oh, the revenue is actually might be much more US. Where was it? Oh, there. There it is. Yeah. 65% of revenue US. Okay. No single other country other than the United States represents 10% of war of the company's total revenue during the three and six months.

No single country. Oh, okay. Okay. More than 10%. Right. Because you've got regions over here that exceed 10%. Okay, that's fine.

Let's go go keep going through these bookmarks here. So, we got this. This is guidance. We kind of already know Q2 asenture standardized on crowd strike for SMB focused edge business.

let's see marketplace goto motion across AWS, Google, Microsoft. Each of our hyperscaler marketplace partners saw record Q2 as customers use their hyperscaler of choice for security investments.

Okay. So my understanding there is you could basically get access to this the crowd strike data and platform through uh you know through your cloud provider.

Crowd strike. Okay. uh marketplace on various hyperscaler uh platforms. I guess there would be mark yeah market marketplaces to access crowd strike presumably falcon because they're talking about that here.

okay quickly saw traction with Microsoft marketplace we saw that in closing great quarter okay this is the let's just write down the marketplace this was Microsoft Australian healthcare providers started using Crowd Strike 7ig Flex.

American manufacturing company has expanded to using Fal Falcon through a sevenfigure flex on Microsoft marketplace. Wow. Uh seeing seven figure deals through AWS or Microsoft. uh basically moving from old school uh security and event management platforms to Crowd Strike. That makes sense.

uh basically moving from old school uh security and event management platforms to Crowd Strike. That makes sense. Falcon, I have this other data piece here. It says Falcon sensor collects 80 to 85% of security relevant data from endpoints.

Uh then they add on extra third party data. Okay. You can basically pull from. So, I mean, yeah, you know, pull Falcon from these and then you pay for what you pull. Okay. Uh, the marketplaces and, uh, utilize Falcon data essentially.

Uh, but I think the idea here is that they want to sell you the package. So, this would be in their their sort of management suite. that makes sense. I think that's a fair way to put it.

You can basically pull from. So, I mean, yeah, you know, pull Falcon from these and then you pay for what you pull.

Uh, the marketplaces and, uh, utilize Falcon data essentially. Uh, but I think the idea here is that they want to sell you the package. So, this would be in their their sort of management suite. that makes sense. I think that's a fair way to put it.

Let's see what else we have. So, taken together, Falcon platform is cyber security's infrastructure layer. Here it is. Oh, see good. I talk about it a little bit right here. AI adoption is accelerating from frontier weights and openweight models alike and we're still in the earning early innings.

Okay, I agree. Early innings for like the open weight and for cyber security.

AI adoption is accelerating from frontier weights and openweight models alike and we're still in the earning early innings. Okay, I agree. Early innings for like the open weight and for cyber security.

Uh I would say late innings frontier um improvement early innings cyber. Yes, I think that's a fair clarification. And early innings open weight and early open weight.

Okay, we raise our net new ARR. That's a raise to our net new ARR of 100 mil. Delivering the quarter like okay, that's fine.

so let's say uh you're a business, you go onto AWS, subscribe to Falcon NextG, you know, whatever uh platform and basically that becomes your hub, cyber hub. So that way you don't really have to go build anything else.

It it's all hosted over there for you and you could pay for it. Pay for So essentially sign up, monitor hub and pay through AWS. That's kind of cool. Make it kind of easy.

So then the cool thing here is then you also have it's kind of like but then then you don't really have a sales team, right? So, it's sort of like kind of for a smaller company, smaller company, it becomes self-service, self-service, like pump your own gas.

Uh, bigger probably has the sales team involved. You know, you probably have like f, you know, the four deployment engineers, uh, etc. might get involved.

So, let's see what else we have. Then we've got Let's go look at the numbers. So, the numbers for Crowd Strike. Here we go. Cash flow cash flow net income clearly positive 50 mil over the last six months that just transitioned to positive from last year cash flow because of the massive deferrals that come in operating cash flow massive plant property and equipment they still spent 220 mil on plant property and equipment I wonder what they spent on that on plant property equipment.

Wonder if they mentioned plant property and equipment. Here we go. Data center and other compute. Yeah, they actually spend money on data centers. Construction data center equipment purchased.

Data center equipment was purchased. Not yet in service. Depreciation. Interesting.

I wonder if this is for, you know, basically just running their own platform and then they don't have to rely on somebody else when it's not hosted somewhere else because obviously you could get it through Microsoft cloud or AWS.

All right, so this is data center center exposure I should say. Uh, it could also be like I wonder if they're leases, data center equipment cuz it could be that they brought their own, you know, hardware, but it doesn't really matter.

Call it that call it the data center. Call it leasing the data center and putting your own chips in, you know, like the Oracle model or whatever. It doesn't really matter.

Okay, so we've got business acquisitions. Spent $800 million on an acquisition here. Who' they acquire?

Then I've got financing activities, some repurchases of stock, but those really just balance out. You know, a little bit more repurchasing than the stock comp. They're issuing a bit more repurchasing than stock comp.

And then if we go to income statement, we'll look at in just a second. Balance sheet, I've got six billion in accounts receivable and cash. That's deferred. So I've got about a billion in bills.

Oh, they are so cashri right now. Six bill in cash and receivables. 1 billion in current bills, another call it 1.1 billion long-term. Really good balance sheet. Great balance sheet. Really, really good. So, that's impressive.

Okay, then here's the revenue growth. So revenue growth 1470 divided by 1168.9 puts me at 25%. 25.8%. Subscription margins are 22% cost which is nothing cost. Uh these basically break even.

Let me see how those subscription costs are changing. 252.4 divided by 1102.9 22.8. So pretty similar. Wait, 22.8 cost 310.69 divided by 14.29 22.1 ah 22.1% cost down from 22.8 last year.

So actually that's increasing pricing power right bigger PP so that's good operating expenses grew 1130 divided by 965.8 8 17% uh larger PP Okay. And only a penny here of EPS, which is, you know, pretty dismal.

But let's look at the forecast on um the valuation because the PEG ratio for these guys is high right typically uh PEG for cyber right now is really high because people are giving massive uh premiums to ARR especially AI winning ARR plays. Yeah. makes Palunteer look cheaper.

So, how to adjust for that annual recurring revenue issue is a big issue. Uh growth rates is one. Uh higher multiples would be another 1.25 projected EPS Jan 27 that's for the year.

And I personally think these growth rates are a little low. 24.3 + 22 + 10 + 27.6 like why uh why is there a dip? I don't know, but I'll write it down. Divided by 4 21% Wall Street projected growth.

I think that's low by 10 to 20% honestly mostly because I think there's a huge AI inflection but that's okay.

So that means they're trading for divided by 1.25. Yeah, pricey right now. 177 38. Uh oops. Did I do this wrong? No, I did that right. 222 basically divided by 1.25. Yeah. 177 on the PE.

So it's crazy high right now. It's like like I said, it's like a six or more. 08. Wow. So traditional PEG uh tough here uh on these analyst expectations.

So this is the struggle where like how do you how do you value ARR? Uh the question is how do you value ARR? You're not starting every year at zero. So you know do you justify a three peg?

uh how off are the growth rates, right? If you come in and say, you know, to be extreme, you know, let's let's just say the forward growth rate is 50%. Okay, let's go extreme and say three peg and forward growth of 50%.

Okay, that's still uh 177 divided by 177 38 divided by 50 divided by 50 equals it's still a 35. So even that even that looks pricey. Uh the it looks spicy. Does look spicy. Looks pricey.

The uh flip side is they just came out of you know losing money even last year. So last year we lost money. You got 2025 lost money. 2024 had 10 cents of earnings. 23 was negative. 22 was negative. 21 was negative.

So really outside of 2024, outside of 2024, this is their first profitable year. So you know that has some risk. If you look at this on a sales basis uh for PEG, right, you're going to get the company's always going to look the most overvalued right as it turns profitable. almost always uh will look overvalued as it turns to consistent profitability.

So that's where you know we could look at let's take a look at a cash flow yield and then let's also look at sales. So we're about six billion in sales. Six billion sales and free cash flow is Uh, so pro property equipment.

I'm gonna go with where is it? There it is. In six months, we're at about 900. So about 1.8 billion in free cash flow roughly for the year. You know, call it two to be generous.

Crowd strike. I've got a market cap of 227ish. Okay. So, 227 call it, you know, let's just call it what it is. 1 1.8 227 divided by 1.8. Oops, I did that wrong. 1.1 1.8 divided by 227 equals Yeah. less than 1% cash flow yield.

And on a sales basis at 6 billion in sales 222 / 6 37 times sales. So this is like this is pricey you know it's however however you want to look at it. It's it's on the software side.

It's one of the pricey one of the pricey ones. It makes sense solely if you think the growth is going to be explosive.

I happen to think the growth is going to be really explosive, but I have I have a real struggle with figuring out exactly how to uh project out these annual recurring revenues into a valuation that makes sense compared to the others.

So, it's possible it's just really highly overvalued at this point, but I just don't think it is because I think they're going to crank money. You know, I think the market's actually right about it.

That doesn't create the greatest discount opportunity.

Let me see if we have net revenue retention. Do we have NR mentioned in here? Net revenue retention. No. NRR. No. What about retention? Let's just try the word retention. Retention.

Dollar base net revenue retention. Year-over-year growth in annual recurring revenue. See, you can see that acceleration here that those are year-over-year numbers. I think it's going to go faster than that. I could be wrong,

but um let's see what was their guidance. We put them into Chrome. Let me find out. Okay. So, stocks, we've got Crowd Strike. Crowd Strike forecast. Yeah, because they raised their ARR growth outlook to 34%.

That's what I'm saying. Uh, this is just starting. you know, their growth rate. Uh, I think uh, Wall Street at 20% EPS growth on average is smoking crack. Way too low. IMO 50% might even be too low.

Uh, after claw uh, you know, the mythos moment. So 25% ARR growth here, but management guided 37 uh 34% ARR growth for 2027. I think they'll beat that. That's ARR growth. So just to be clear, there's a difference here between the ARR growth and the EPS growth, but I think one will lead to the other.

So really the debate for this, it's overvalued. If you think Wall Street's growth numbers are right, and if you think they're vastly wrong, you can make an argument for owning this.

I think they're vastly wrong. That's why I own it. Sometimes I look at the estimates, I'm like, "Ah, that's reasonable." Other times I look at the estimates, I go, "You guys are wrong."

This is where I think Wall Street is wrong. But otherwise, I mean, yeah, you're paying a pretty penny for it.

Okay, so Crowd Strike. Is there anything else in that earnings call? That's juicy. Uh, AR outlook 34%. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. See this? See, look. This equates to an ARR growth rate of 34% compared to the 22% in our initial outlook.

That's going to keep happening. ARR increase record cash flow. That's going to keep going.

Uh we analyze this. What is this annual recurring revenue in the range of 6.6 around $6.6 6 billion up 34%. Saw that. What is this project quilt works blah blah blah. What is this? Exposure management. Okay.

Given the fact that there is an exponential increase in vulnerabilities that are found via Frontier AI and patches that can be created via Frontier AI, that's great. The problem is you've hit the sound barrier of actually rolling out the patch.

And what that means is companies are looking for the ability to prioritize the exposures. Yeah. It's like you need some software that's constantly running and keeping your crap up to date because otherwise you're just going to get left behind.

So you need constant constant at all time supervision of uh company assets to actually be secure today. Crowd does that.

Crowd does that. Falcon shield. Falcon's growing like crazy. You know, some of their growth rate I think is still I don't know their their growth rate could be masked by success of prior legacy products uh prior legacy products you know where if we actually had if we had only Falcon you know growth rate is over 100%.

You know they're they're doubling. So that's useful.

You know, some of their growth rate I think is still I don't know their their growth rate could be masked by success of prior legacy products uh prior legacy products you know where if we actually had if we had only Falcon you know growth rate is over 100%. You know they're they're doubling.

What is this? AI workloads moving on to cloud. ARx data 29%. Crowd Stark leader in runtime security. Crowd Stark now secures. Okay, that's fine. What is this? This is Cloud Shield.

Turning to our identity business. Oh, so Cloud Falcon Shield is growing at over double. Moving on to Cloud. No, all of their cloud grew 29%. So, we don't know. Okay. All right. That's fine. Falcon Shield grew 185%.

Crowd Stark leader in runtime security. Oh, so Cloud Falcon Shield is growing at over double. Moving on to Cloud. No, all of their cloud grew 29%. So, we don't know.

Falcon Shield grew 185%. What exactly is that? I'd like to get identity products portfolio. So, is that like um I think that's like secure sign in or like zero trust. That's probably what it is, but I will verify.

Okay. 185. Uh, so shield, specifically shield. Uh, shield. Okay, here we go. Shield is from the acquisition of adaptive shield. Oh, so they acquired adaptive shield. adaptive shield turned it into falcon shield and it's actually for securing a gentic apps secures a gentic apps.

Aha. Okay. So that's different. It's part of the zero trust that has to do with agents. Got it.

Uh, shield. Okay, here we go. Shield is from the acquisition of adaptive shield. Oh, so they acquired adaptive shield. adaptive shield turned it into falcon shield and it's actually for securing a gentic apps secures a gentic apps.

Aha. Okay. So that's different. It's part of the zero trust that has to do with agents.

Yeah, we've actually have token based pricing. So, we're already doing that. What's important from a customer perspective? Blah blah blah. Falcon license. All consumable file falcon licenses.

Okay. Boring. Friction free deployment. Endpoint success fuels the adoption. That's fine.

What's important from a customer perspective? Blah blah blah. Falcon license. All consumable file falcon licenses. Okay. Boring.

Friction free deployment. Endpoint success fuels the adoption. That's fine. AI agents expand the attack surface. Yeah, agents are also human and machine risk multipliers with access to data just like you know agents going rogue.

Fair. Yeah. This is the agentic swarm. The swarm is coming.

Uh Crowd Strike, I personally think very impressive. Excited about this.

Here's a Goldman piece on Crown Strike. That could be interesting. Inflecting sooner than we expected. Crowd by Goldman.

Okay. Crowd strike indicated 11% after hours. Annual recurring revenue up 51% year-over-year, 17% above the street and uh 34% growth for next company raised at a midpoint blah blah blah.

We believe an in inflection in security budget may be happening sooner than we expect. 100%. 110%.

Crowdstrike noted that AI projects are catalyzing a broader push to cyber. Well, I I think companies see what AI is capable uh of, then they poop themselves a little bit when they realize how exposed all their uh end points are, right?

Crowdstrike noted that AI projects are catalyzing a broader push to security modernization that benefits several parts of the crowd platform. There are early proof points that AI could drive structurally higher growth rates for the ne next several years for uh cyber security.

Yes. And that's why I think Wall Street honestly even their projection is is low. They have a price target of $230. It's already there. It's basically already there.

So aid usage was scaling with Frontier model usage up nearly 3x Q over Q.

The same time Crowd Strike's more sophisticated EDR that's your endpoint technology um for session management. Agentic context collectively translates to better flex metrics. Flex ARR is Oh, there we go. $2 billion up 100%.

See, that's if this were only uh if this were if this were only a flex company uh and we held growth stable, we'd be at 100x or 100, you know, percent revenue uh rev growth. If that uh translated at high margins to EPS, this company would be, you know, whatever selling for 177 times, call it, you know, 85.

They'd be selling for like a two peg. This company would be a two peg. So, you can see how you could be all over the place with with these ARR companies, depending on what growth rate you want to go with.

Um, their net margins right now because of the OPEX are so pretty low, though their gross margins are fantastic. so total cost of revenue is 374 divided by 1470.9 75% gross margin.

These are those are Nvidia level margins equals Nvidia level margins, right? Okay. So, their forecast for 2029 enterprise value to sales will go down to 20 in the future. Growth margins margins we stay stable.

Look at that. Oops. EPS growth. I don't know why they have this negative uh for the beginning of 27. And then we get to EPS growth of about 39 and 33, which is still lower than my expectation, but higher than the rest of Wall Street.

AI security opportunity will disproportionately acrue to crowd strike because of the strength of its technology, lightweight agent, lightweight agent, threat graph, human reinforcement feedback loops, willingness to acquire and cross-ell nextG assets.

Yeah. Yeah. That's pretty good by uh by Goldman, although I still think their estimates are too low.

I know you've liked Crowd Strike for a while man those numbers are big >> oh my god it was fantastic I mean and the CEO Kurt was talking about this mythos moment is driving people to invest more money. We like CrowdStrike.

Crowd Strike's adding 19 billion. they've got a wonderful platform with their Falcon platform, and they're making it easier for people to add on modules. So they're trying to take all this bifurcated tech stack and programming and said look if we platform it it's easy for you to make these adjustments with the Falcon Flex.

It's a brilliant strategy, but mostly it's about the growth of the total addressable market. That looks to be a $300 billion market in five years.

And Crowd Strike, Palo Alto are the two leaders in the clubhouse there.

the next frontier of artificial intelligence stocks that are big big winners, bigly winners, big PP winners, uh might be right in front of us. And I personally not only have exposure to the stock we're about to talk about, but really think that the estimates that Wall Street has for this company right now are a joke compared to what they should be.

That means on paper with Wall Street the company looks overvalued. I think based on where we're going with artificial intelligence the company looks undervalued.

We bought Crowd Strike and some cyber security companies before this massive boom in Crowdstrike stock. Uh and we've seen a definitely nicely up on the crowd strike position right now.

I mean right now the stock just on the day is up 19%.

Specifically, Wall Street expects that annual recurring revenue for companies like Crowdstrike is going to expand at one level and the reality is it's expanding at a totally different level.

That expansion is already happening. For example, we uh CrowdStrike beat expectations on net new annual recurring revenue by 16.4% 4% over expectations, which meant that their total annual recurring revenue is now on pace to grow at 34% per year.

And Wall Street still only has this company's earnings per share growing at just under 20% per year.

And then, of course, if you're a larger contractor, they're going to send their forward deployment engineers much like a Palunteer does. Okay, this company is pricey right now.

And you'll see, you kind of see what kind of expectations you have to have to go, oh yeah, okay, this is this is really justifiable.

Goldman Sachs argues the following. They argue that they see annual recurring revenue of 51%. They believe there's an inflection in security budgeting that's happening sooner than expected.

Flex uh Flex um revenue is up double. That's that 2.29 billion. I think that's going to grow way faster than Wall Street thinks. And when we actually look at the growth that Goldman gives them, they're throwing EPS growth somewhere down here on their financial statements, they're throwing in EPS growth for the forward two years at least at 39 and 33% coming out of some of the holes that there have been.

Given that the company has been teetering between profitability and losses, we really had one profitable year. I think it was 2024. or you went back to negative in 2025 and you were negative everything before that.

I may be switching 24 and 25, but it doesn't really matter. The point is you're just now really coming into profitability. And that's another reason why the company can look expensive.

And maybe it is expensive. Maybe you got to wait for a better opportunity to enter it, right?

But look at the dock here. Annual revenue year-over-year growing at 25%. I think that's way too low. I think it's going to grow faster.

So, you have this trifecta. So that's going to be token uh we'll just call them token costs coming down that could be due to the open weights or otherwise right then you've got uh agentic and then you also have more end points.

Every endpoint that somebody gives access to like claude agent or whatever access to is a risk and most people don't have endpoint management software. That's a big red flag and that's going to change.

There are other endpoint management plays that are smaller. You know, this is now already a, you know, multiundred billion dollar company. I mean, what's CrowdStrike going for right now?

Crowd Strike right now is going for $230 billion.

I mean, what's CrowdStrike going for right now? Crowd Strike right now is going for $230 billion. There's another endpoint management play that is up 11% today that we're also invested in.

They are only a $7.8 billion company. So there's a little bit of your spoiler hint if you don't want to join us yet in the meet Kevin courses. But that's another big endpoint manager.

And so the whole cyerspace is getting lifted by this. But I think you actually have this trifecta going on here where lower token costs lead to more agentic usage which leads to uh more agentic usage on more end points which all uh correlates with an increase let's use a different color here all of it correlates with an increase in cyber risk right increase risk all three of these increase risk.

And you can make the argument that more endpoints are therefore now using more token generators. And so you've got this kind of acceleration here where more people using uh endpoints, more people using Agentic, cheaper open weight costs like what we talked about at the beginning of the setup. All of that just increases cyber risk.

We've got talk from their earnings call right here about an exponential increase in vulnerabilities that are being found via Frontier AI. And the problem is the delay between finding a risk and then deploying it.

And that's actually where CrowdStrike has another really cool opportunity because they get access to a lot of proprietary data.

Okay. So the issue with data is and this is why crowd strike you know the big kind of keep winning is that when you have the data people come to you because you have the data. So people are going to come to you because you have the data.

Because when you have the data you're going to be able to protect them from more threats. The more data you have the more protection you could provide. So people come because you have more data, but by more people coming, you actually then increase the amount of data you have because you now have more companies you have access to.

So, it's this crazy flywheel that sort of goes on over here and Frontier AI, you know, sort of uh and and cheaper access to Frontier AI all uh compounds this uh net revenue retention revenue,

they they kind of miscellaneously disclose this like some quarters they talk about it, some they don't, but their net revenue retention was about 112%. And sometimes when I compare to these other companies, I do think there is a value in knowing that it doesn't have to be CrowdStrike.

But what's really neat here is uh they're collecting data from their endpoints and they're sort of recycling that into their pricing power. And so there's some really big value here which is uh exciting.

Then if we take a look at uh the this was really the claude boom right here at the end of Q1 there is a risk that some of the boom we're seeing in cloud usage 400% growth in claude usage 100% growth in custom agent usage on endpoints in recent months there's a potential risk that you know we went through sort of a boom cycle and that's going to end up tapering because of what we saw in Q1.

So, to be determined, if we actually go look at the financials, cash flow is uh pretty good. We've got about uh $1.8 billion of cash flow uh cash flow per year. That does work out to a less than 1% cash flow yield.

So, again, a little expensive compared to their market cap. So, who knows? Maybe this is the top, right?

Still very excited about cyber security, but worth noting. Also, just now turning to profitability. If I look at their uh balance sheet, I've got $6 billion of cash, $1 billion of current bills.

That's cash and receivables, 1 billion of bills, which means I've got net5 billion of free cash. If I come over and take off their long-term debt, I take off another maybe about $1 billion.

So, I really have about $4 billion of free cash, which is good. I mean, in fairness, for a $200 billion company, it's, you know, maybe on the low side, but very good balance sheets. balance sheet looks good.

Revenue, another 25.8% growth in revenue year-over-year. Their costs on subscriptions are actually going down. 22.1% in indicates an increasing pricing power between revenue and subscriptions.

But also, if you compare to last year, their costs were 22.8% on subscription, which uh subscriptions, which also means we are getting uh greater pricing power.

Their gross profit margins are at Nvidia levels at 75%. Which is really, really good. Now, in fairness, they have a lot of GNA and they're just coming into profitability, barely coming into profitability.

So, there is some risk with that. That is going to be an asterisk for a lot of investors on Wall Street. Understandable.

Uh, you can notice that their R&D spend is up right now by 29.8%. So that's a little higher than revenue right now. Uh but their overall GNA and sales spending is up only 17.5% with R&D.

So if you merge that all together, their pricing power is growing. They're just investing more into R&D. For example, sales alone up 14% in expenses, but their revenue is almost double that at 25.8%.

It's pretty good. Maybe I'm too bullish, so just mentioning it.

uh data center exposure. They do also have a lot of data center equipment themselves. Uh you know, over a billion dollars of GPUs themselves. I think they lease their data centers, but they've got a lot of their own equipment.

They also have uh most of their revenue that comes from the United States. It's about 65% revenue coming from the United States. So, it gives you a little bit more color in terms of where it's coming from.

No country like no other country out there has more than um a 10% exposure to Crowdstrike revenue. However, they have other regions like Europe or whatever that make up more than 10%.

how a company like Crowd Strike has the moat and even though they're really pricey on Wall Street expectations, I think they're undervalued because people are not properly pricing in how important it is to have cyber security in your business.

And the fact that they're able to deploy this on like Microsoft or AWS.

What this channel has said about $CRWD

Meet Kevin has 4 calls on this stock; only the adjacent ones are shown.

2026-09-03
Then we look at CrowdStrike, which I am also optimistic about , but its rating is very high. Growth estimates would have to be very high for this to make sense. As you know, their cash flow return is around 0.9%.
Quote at 20:10 ›
2026-08-27BullishThis one
Oopsy dupsies and Crowd Strike up about 10%. Uh especially with all the cyber security news going on. Not terribly much of a surprise.
2026-08-27Bullish
And I personally not only have exposure to the stock we're about to talk about, but really think that the estimates that Wall Street has for this company right now are a joke compared to what they should be. That means on paper with Wall Street the company looks overvalued. I think based on where we're going with artificial intelligence the company looks undervalued.
Quote at 00:08 ›
See full history ›
KolSays