$SMH

SMH price action implies continued downside through the 50% channel level due to lack of bounce momentum, targeting support at 509-503.63.

BearishHe framed it in days
“Yield Surge Puts Markets Under Pressure Ahead of FOMC Decision”
Verified InvestingPublished Sep 15 · 1 passage

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All right, next up into the SMH. We see the SMH on the daily time frame did finish positive. You see this? It was one in the green today. So it was up.1%. We were higher throughout the course of the day, even higher than yesterday's high of the day uh too.

But what did we do? We settled in again right here on this 50% area of the parallel channel. That I remind you too, we tagged precisely on the way down yesterday, bounced up and since have really just settled in right here on top of that 50% area of the parallel.

Normally that's not really good, guys. You want to see a big fall, hit a level of support, and then start producing momentum for a bounce so it can go back up and attack the resistance that's ahead of it.

Instead, we're just lingering right around on top of this uh 50% area of the parallel. Like, if we didn't have the FOMC tomorrow, I would be much more bearish, saying that this price action is actually implying we're going to continue to go down through the 50% area of the parallel.

Now, if that is the case, where would we go? Well, a clear destination would be right down here at the bottom range of this parallel channel right at 509. And if we zoom over here to July 29th, we can see we got very close to that range at 50363.

So, right around 509 to 50363 will be an awful lot of support on the SMH. to the upside. Getting above this declining trend line will be the first test in front of SMH at 555 and 17

Watchpoints

price breaking above the declining trend line

What this channel has said about $SMH

Verified Investing has 10 calls on this stock; only the adjacent ones are shown.

2026-09-15BearishThis one
All right, next up into the SMH. We see the SMH on the daily time frame did finish positive. You see this? It was one in the green today. So it was up.1%. We were higher throughout the course of the day, even higher than yesterday's high of the day uh too. But what did we do? We settled in again right here on this 50% area of the parallel channel. That I remind you too, we tagged precisely on the way down yesterday, bounced up and since have really just settled in right here on top of that 50% area of the parallel. Normally that's not really good, guys. You want to see a big fall, hit a level of support, and then start producing momentum for a bounce so it can go back up and attack the resistance that's ahead of it. Instead, we're just lingering right around on top of this uh 50% area of the parallel. Like, if we didn't have the FOMC tomorrow, I would be much more bearish, saying that this price action is actually implying we're going to continue to go down through the 50% area of the parallel. Now, if that is the case, where would we go? Well, a clear destination would be right down here at the bottom range of this parallel channel right at 509. And if we zoom over here to July 29th, we can see we got very close to that range at 50363. So, right around 509 to 50363 will be an awful lot of support on the SMH. to the upside. Getting above this declining trend line will be the first test in front of SMH at 555 and 17
2026-09-14Bearish
Next up into the SMH. Now, here's where the story is, guys. And here's where the story, as I remind you, I always, and I've said this many times on this show, this SMH is where I can lean either bullish or bearish on the near-term price action. And the reason being, SMH contains a lot of semiconductor stocks. They also are growth stocks. So, when investors are pushing these growth stocks up, it's risk on in the marketplace and likely the rest of the market will follow suit. And I've really been highlighting this with our simple moving averages, guys. So, let's look at these simple moving averages to also illustrate how we're just not able to get back above that 50 moving average. That 50 daily moving average is this blue line on my screen. The yellow is the 20 and this red down here at the bottom is the 200 moving average. So, we see here even with the pop that we received Friday, price action basically closed right at or underneath that 50-day moving average. You can even see too we breached it here on the ETH and even maintained above it on the 9th but never put in a continuing confirmation move above not only this parallel not only this declining trend line but then that 50 moving averages. So we had three resistance levels so far holding SMH down on price and then we slid even further down today catching support mind you at the 50% area of this parallel channel. Now, to remind anybody or to illustrate to any new viewers where this parallel channel comes from, guys, this is a parallel channel back in April of 2025. And if I zoom in into the 10-minute chart, look at where that bounce occurred today. Right at the 50% area of the parallel, as I illustrated with the S&P 500, the SMH also sold off the last 10-minute candle of the day. But still incredible how technical analysis can work on the chart. When you're talking about a year and a half, a year and 5 months later down the road, we get an in intraday bounce right here on this 50% area of the parallel. That tells you near-term guys, that is the level of support. Big fall down here today. I would be surprised um if we don't see a little bit of a bounce up tomorrow. However, if the selling pressure continues pushing us down to the lower 50% of the parallel channel, the next support will come at these low pivots that you see here on the chart, right around $525. Beyond that, we're talking the bottom of the parallel, right at $58 on the chart there for SMH. Beautiful decline there today, keeping me less bullish in the market for risk on uh stocks, equities, much like the tech sector in general.
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