SPY is bearish; repeated rejection at VWAP and trading below the 20-day SMA indicate weakness.

All right, let's take a look at the spy chart. Let's see where we are and where we might be going here this week. Remember, we just talked to you about several key earnings reports coming this week.

Some from the AI uh sector, some from the cyber security sector. I think that's really headlined by Palo Alto as discussed and then also Broadcom. uh you could throw in there. Now, last week for pretty much the entire week, we spent it riding the 20-day and we find oursel near that again here today.

We are technically beneath it right now ahead of uh Monday's open. So, for me, a key level here is definitely going to be 76971. It's only 20 cents away from where we're currently at.

You want to call it 770, that would make sense, too. I would imagine that would also uh be a key level here. But um the formation that we are making on the daily chart here less than ideal for the bulls.

We did trade up on Friday towards the previous all-time high level of 77685. We did not quite test it, but then we pulled back in and held the 20. That sets up today where we're beneath the 20.

Can we close above or beneath that? We'll see. That should determine the direction. Now, the thing is is if we do close beneath it, and then we looks like we're going to move lower.

We actually have a lower high on the daily from uh August 14th or August 13th, which is where the all-time high is set. So, we'll see if that pattern continues here or if maybe we can kind of reverse that uh right off of the right off of the 20. See if we can recapture that.

Lion, as far as your call on the spy here or you're asking me for the call, we are battling with the VWAP right now, but we do not we are not show I would call this not showing confidence in the move up just yet.

It's early, but not yet. We're holding the VWAP so far.

Dow is down. By the way, NASDAQ's trying to go higher. SPY can't figure out what it's going to do. Actually, SPY moving to the pre-market lows as we speak. All right. So, move not moving in the direction I think people want.

This did have a bearish looking pattern forming. Didn't look like it even made had a chance to form the right shoulder, but uh this is coming down to the 65 EMA.

>> And getting some support there for now, but I don't know that it holds. Um we'll see what it ends up doing.

All right. Lion here mentioning big rejection for the spy. Yeah, so that actually did serve as a rejection. We actually tried to peak above the VWAP here and then we rolled back over line.

And I would agree this to me looks like a rejection. We're now beneath the pre-market lows. This should be a um break of structure to the downside here. See if it actually closes the candle with that.

So, my outlook on the S&P just in general, it's not looking good. But my outlook initially, and I'm going to stick with it until I'm proven wrong, my outlook was I thought we might close green here today as we kind of dress up the end of August.

Uh, first move pulled us lower here though, uh, Ed, so I don't know if that's going to hold. Um, one of the things to mention here really quick, we always take a look at SPY here when referencing the S&P 500.

Just to be clear, we talked about this breaching the low of the day. It actually looks like it's trying maybe to recapture it, but um we'll see. My initial call is I thought maybe we closed green.

I don't know how good I feel about that here 10 minutes into the market session.

Okay. Yep. You're right there on move. You can see it there. By the way, SPY folks, we might have a break of structure here to the downside. Uh SPY looking to take out the intraday low candle on this move down.

Got it right there at 765 and 3/4. We are basically right there. Futures not looking great there.

we're talking a little bit about the broader market here. Spy almost double tested the low there. We'll see if this can get back above the VWAP. This thing uh if I'm looking at a five-minute chart, this came down into a consolidation area back from last Wednesday.

>> This thing, are you referring to the Q's or the spy? >> I'm sorry, the spy. I didn't I didn't know you moved on to from the spy. So, yeah, the spy is what I'm referring to. uh came down, found some support around the 60 uh 76550 area.

Uh but it's like really sideways into the consolidation from you know from Wednesday and and and backwards. So Wednesday, Tuesday, Monday, last Friday. Just look at this area this came down into.

And you could draw a straight line across it. And this has been, you know, this price action since two Fridays ago has been basically back and forth above that uh 765 area.

SPY is trying to bounce. We'll see if it's got the strength to get above its VWAP. 76667 is going to be your VWAP there. We shall see.

boy, a lot of stuff all of a sudden starting to happen here. SPY is starting to trade back up. Looks like it's challenging its VWAP as we speak, folks. spy rejected at that VWAP so far, but it's not breaking down yet. I would still watch this battle

Amarie, I appreciate this. Reject the upside. And lo and behold, it looks like again we are rejected at VWAP here. And Marie goes on to say, I believe we are rangebound, so we should reject the upper lines of the congestion.

Okay. Well, so far that's exactly what we've done.

Lion saying, "The spy definitely looks bearish." Lion, when you're right, you're right. And you know what? I thought maybe we might be able to bounce and close green, but thus far the market is not showing us that.

And I would add to the fact that your your call here about it looking bearish. I would add and say every time that we trade up to VWAP and get rejected, which we've done twice in the last 10 minutes now, every time we do this, we affirm that it still looks bearish.

And this is one of the reasons why a VWAP recapture is something that's always on deck here when SPY is trading beneath it. But Lion, I agree with you. Until something changes here, it looks bearish.

Looks like your next support to the downside. um if we don't uh find it at uh 765. Looks like you have a much better area down a dollar away from that at 764. But you know, we me we we are trading underneath the 20-day SMA now.

And if we continue to close underneath it, I'm then I'm feeling a lot more confident about finally getting down to that 755 760 area.

SPY, by the way, rolling back over to the lows here.

Okay. Uh, SPY is testing the lower end of the range there. We'll see if we actually break that and move lower.

and SPY, did we just set new lows for the day?

Uh, with that being said, SPY is literally testing the intraday low here as we speak. 76550 right here and it just dipped beneath it.

Nquille, you were saying, "Didn't your bot took uh puts on spy?" It has not taken any trade. It will look for puts and calls on SPY and QQQ, but it hasn't taken anything here today. It doesn't have the setup to do that.

Um, Lion saying, Ryan, every attempt by the spy has been rejected. That is exactly right. That has been what we've been watching from the very beginning here. Every attempt to move through the VWAP has been rejected. We've talked about it. We'll see if it changes.