SPY is consolidating sideways; holding support suggests upside to new highs, while breaking support or rising yields signals downside.

All right, let's do it. Let's take a look at our SPY chart. Now, we've talked a lot about the sideways formation or the sideways trading. We did come back into the bottom of the range.

I know we dipped beneath that 760, but today, at least with the gap up here, it sure looks like we're going to recapture that today. So, number one, the key is going to be, can we actually close above 75857?

It's great that we're trading above that now. Uh, it's great that we're peing above that, but really we want to close above that. We also have our sights set on the 20-day moving average, which we've really kind of been oscillating around, sometimes kind of trading above, sometimes using it as resistance and trading a little bit below it.

But that is on deck here today. 76677 should be upside resistance if we trade up towards that level. If we can uh close above that, that would be excellent. If I back the chart out a little bit here to encompass um maybe the entire summer about since what the end of or beginning of April here.

Um you can see that our volume point of control is still down here at 740. So I'd love to trade a little bit higher. I'd love to maybe break out to a new all-time high. But if we're just not ready to do that yet and we do end up coming back in, it's also worth keeping 740 on your radar.

Not for today, but for another possible bounce spot in the future if we do in fact trade lower.

And if we come over here and we look at the S&P, we are basically sitting on this critical level. Well, a little bit of a rebound this today, I guess, so far. But I think over the next couple days, today, Monday, Tuesday, if we hold this level here, I think we revisit here and kind of work higher.

If we break this support, I think we could get down here pretty quickly.

So, this is probably, in my opinion, what we really need to focus on is yields over here because look at that. We're getting close to 5%. This is the 10-year yield. Usually, people view this as a line chart um like this.

Not that it really makes a difference, but anyway. So 5% is kind of symbolic. Historically, it's really not that high. It's because artificially low ever since the housing bubble.

But anyway, this could be pretty this if this exceeds 5%, I think that's makes the S&P take out that support and head lower.

Really quick, just before we do this, let's go back to the spy. Look at the Oh, gee, for heaven's sakes, got to type in the actual spy here. Here's what the spy looks like. Here was the print.

We sold off. We went right down to 76028 or thereabouts. Bounced. Now we've gone green. We've gone higher and it look Oh yeah, Joe, we'll do Uber, too. Thanks for the reminder.

So, this is what SPY is doing. It's taking some of the other stocks with it. And SanDisk is one of said stocks. You can see this formation looks very, very similar here. So, I suspect this is going to trade here with the rest of the market.

and Amarie mentioning that the SPY and the NASDAQ moving in opposite directions and indeed that's true. NASDAQ moving lower here perhaps on the back of that oracle fade that we saw right out of the open.

S&P 500 actually looks like it might try and take out the pre-market high. We have that value up there 666 and change.

SPY looks like it is trying to go higher, but it's struggling to get through 766 right now.

SPY did start to roll over a little bit just like Ann Marie kind of insinuated and we'll see if that does come back in towards 67437 which is where your VWAP is at.

Spy did exactly what Anmarie uh said it was going to do. Chopped around up here. Did not have the strength to go through the pre-market high. It definitely feels choppy up here. we had that high in May of 2024.

And if you d draw it through the high of uh June 2nd uh or whenever >> I've got it. >> And if you keep that drawing that trend line here, you can see that uh where we broke out.

We've just back tested that trend line and now we should be uh moving towards new highs. I'd say I'd say that maybe 600s, you know, possible. Not today, but you know, pretty soon.

Uh SPY is trying for a break of structure to the upside here. We'll see if we get it.

So here's the spy. I'm wondering if this is going to try and go higher.