SPY is strong but faces short-term downside risk (next 2-3 weeks) before a likely bottom in Sept/Oct and a stronger Q4.

And finally, what we are going to do here is look at the stock market outlook for the S&P 500. It is Friday again, September 11, 2026. Obviously we have seen a very rangebound market uh seeing just even on social media uh folks getting very bearish at lows and very bullish at highs. There in lies the trading range that we are really operating in right now. Um, that's why in future speak earlier this week, I was really trying to hone in uh on seeing the overall condition of those EMAs on the daily time frame to help you to filter the signals from the noise. Right? If you're uh if you're only following price and simply staring at price, you are losing sight of what is really happening sometimes, right? So trying to find ways to simplify what you look at so that way what you are looking at is a more simplified matrix as opposed to all of those inputs that we could have access to. So one of the things that has changed a lot over the years is we just have more and more external inputs that are at times clouding our judgment. Right? So in order to simplify that you have to look and see and and just ask the question what really matters here right in situations like this what really matters and often times what you will find is trying to strip down a lot of what you're looking at and simplify what you're looking at can actually lead to greater clarity and that is something I think that is very important And you know you've seen it with other traders over the years as they evolve right what they look at often times doesn't get more complicated it actually gets simpler uh so that is something that you know I would ask everyone to look hard at and understand if this was a week which you got really chopped understand and look at why that happened and what you can do in the future to learn and grow right every opportunity uh creates an opportunity for growth. If we are in that mindset for it, if we look at it from a victim mindset, then we're in a whole another camp uh where we are unlikely to really see any meaningful change uh in our trading. Okay? Every day gives us an opportunity and it's our job to seize that opportunity. We may not see change right away, but if you are consistent and finding opportunities and areas in and around trading for growth and development, right, that can compound over time and lead to more to more meaningful step changes uh in your overall trading performance. So, that's something that I think is very important here. So, let's go ahead and uh jump into this S&P chart. We're going to look at our weekly and daily cycle analysis uh as usual. And this is our weekly and daily cycle analysis for the S&P with of course the Slim MCM on the left here. As you're seeing on the intermediate term, it is now neutral. And in the short term, uh it is slightly bearish. Let's go ahead and hop over now into the charts. And what you're seeing here is that there's a low that is due 810 to around 914 uh in the S&P. The RS is still positive. The overall translations are also very very strong. We have moved down to this zone here uh from 7596 to around 7527 and so far that is holding uh and uh this is a very strong translation which does indicate that we are likely to see still new highs coming prior to year end as we get out into this next rising phase here. If we jump over to the short term now earlier this week I highlighted that it is very important to find things that can help us to simplify what we are looking at and um one of those is the slim ribbon. I like to ask the question are we in parallel to the upside in those EMAs? Are we in parallel to the downside or are we really flat and this is really a very flat situation here. So, this is not a very bearish left-hand translation. This is a very choppy one where we have not seen a lot of follow-through below this low at 7638. You have a short-term low 914 to around 923. The RS has been down, but again, a neutral ribbon. We are seeing a series of slightly lower highs and lower lows. But uh you know certainly this is a grind again a trough that is due 914 to 923. There is a fib right around 7530. You now have this old low here from Thursday at 7580. And on the upside if we start moving through these old highs here at 70 at 7771 well obviously that would be more positive than anything else. right now very neutral stance uh in the market and that's why I think it is super important to hone in on market environment and staying attuned to that. If you don't uh and you aren't following how either strong or weak a translation is, you may get caught getting overly bearish towards lows or overly bullish towards highs. This is a very choppy translation. Plus, you have a flat EMA, right? That combination really spells traps all over the place.

S&P 500 bounced from a key top of the range support. We talked about that. I thought it was important that if the market was going to be negative, it had to give up that whole rally when it had the breakout, but it hit that support and then moved up.