ORCL

We got Oracle, we got Adobe, and we got Restoration Hardware on deck today.

We do have big earnings today. Restoration Hardware, Oracle, and Adobe will be looking at those. Uh Adobe and Oracle are going to come out first at 5 minutes after the bell and then Restoration Hardware will be 5 minutes after that.

Oracle just reported quarterly financial results and the stock is up over 3% in the after market hours. The company reported an additional $30 billion in backlog just from 3 months earlier and it's RPO, remaining performance obligations, have soared to $664 billion.

But does all of this make Oracle stock a buying still? Remember I've had the stock ranked as a buy, so I'm happy to see the share price increasing. But let me share with you these latest results and let me share with you my updated estimates for fair value and update you on my ranking for buy, hold, or sell for Oracle stock following these results.

I felt the results were great, but the what Wall Street hates the stock. It really is interesting. After hours trading, this this stock was up about 7 or 8% yesterday after the results came out.

The stock was performing well in the first couple hours of trading this morning and really fell off.

Now, this morning we did get CPI data and that's what I mean by that, right? So, we've seen oil rally up all week long until the pullback today. Sure, it hit my key4 104 level and pulled back, but still it was a tremendous move recently in oil and that added inflation issues that really the Fed has to come out and combat now.

So obviously we have escalation in the Middle East continuing over the straight of Hormuz. Now the Red Sea, now strikes by the Houthis on Saudi Arabia, oil facilities. All of this adding to the turmoil that adds to inflation.

Now let's talk about the CPI report here today. So CPI report coming out this morning basically in line except for one number that was hotter than expected. Yesterday I discussed how if we had an amazingly good acrosstheboard CPI report maybe the Fed wouldn't have to hike.

That didn't happen. We got a inline slightly hotter than expected CPI report. You can see right there core CPI coming in hotter than expected at 3% versus the 2% anticipated. Every other number was in line.

It's done folks. the Fed is going to have to hike next week no matter what the president says. All right, so that's number one. Now, speaking of which, let's talk a little bit about what the Fed or what the odds are because this is pretty remarkable, folks.

The odds of a Fed rate hike next Wednesday sit right now at 86.5% chance. In Fed terms, that's essentially a sure thing. That's as almost as good as the the inside information that some of our politicians trade off of.

I mean, that is that good. Now, again, how do we play this? There's not really a major way. But my point still remains is that this is a lock for a raise next week. And there's no major economic data.

I mean, the only thing that could maybe sway is if the the price of oil gapped sharply lower by like $20 next week on a deal. Even then, it's likely the Fed will be raising rates.

All right. So, we have a scenario here where next week we have a two-day Fed meeting Tuesday and Wednesday. The decisions out at 2:00. Then at 2:30 there'll be a press conference.

Those are the main factors that we need to watch next week. We're kind of in this interim period now after Oracle earnings.

Oracle moving higher this morning after an earnings beat and guidance that exceeded estimates. The company still expects CapEx between 90 and 95 billion for fiscal 2027.

So, Oracle, they reported earnings buck 92 per share on an adjusted basis. Revenue up almost 30% to 19.3 such more than 19.3 billion.

These Oracle earnings might mark a turning point. So, we'll see.

Wow. Oracle actually went negative. That was not on the bingo board. So, that is somewhat surprising. There's still some debt raising that needs to be done, but that's okay.

Oracle keeps a lid on capex as customers pay upfront.

The other big player today reporting earnings, Oracle, man, Oracle so beaten up, so far away from its highs like a year ago. 56% down from its recent highs in June down about 40% heading into earnings.

They're they're they were expected to do well and they absolutely crushed it, right? Beating EPS by 10% um beating revenue uh having great guidance moving forward. Everything was pointing up for uh for Oracle.