苹果公司质量高但增长缓慢，当前37倍市盈率的估值过于昂贵，需跌至约每股240美元才具备买入价值。
逐段跳播
在这里，我们找到了像苹果、英伟达和好市多这样的“现金牛”公司。
Here we find "cash cow" companies such as Apple, Nvidia and Costco.
既然我们已经了解了完整的五步流程，让我们以苹果公司为例，它曾经是巴菲特持有的股票之一，并将这个清单和流程应用于它，看看何时才是好的买入时机。首先应该问的问题是：苹果的收入是否可预测？
如果你看一下苹果长期收入的图表，你会发现其收入在过去二十年中一直在稳步增长。这使得公司的收入高度可预测。因此，我们在这一点上打上“勾”。下一个问题是：苹果处于商业周期的哪个阶段？
具体来说，它是否处于资本回收阶段？如果我将苹果的数据输入到我设计的工具中，就会很清楚它已经处于资本回收阶段。既然我们知道它处于资本回收阶段，那么对苹果进行并发症分析是安全的。现在，当我审视苹果时，市盈率被突出显示，因为公司正在满负荷运转以产生利润，因此这个指标是合适的。
Now that we know the complete five-step process, let's take a company like Apple, which was once one of Buffett's stocks, and apply this list and process to it to see when it would be a good buy. The first question that should be asked is: Are Apple's revenues predictable? Well, if you look at the graph of Apple's long-term revenue, you will see that its revenue has been steadily increasing for two decades. This makes the company's revenues highly predictable. Therefore, we put a "check" mark on this point. The next question is: At what stage of the business cycle does Apple fall? Specifically, is it in the capital recovery phase? Well, if we input Apple's data into the tool I designed, it becomes quite clear that it is already in the capital recovery phase. Since we know that it is in the capital recovery phase, it is safe to conduct a complications analysis on Apple. Now, when I look at Apple, the price-to-earnings ratio is highlighted because the company is working at full capacity to generate profits, and therefore this metric is appropriate.
我们可以看到，截至2026年9月，苹果股票如今非常昂贵，市盈率为37倍，而在2022年，其市盈率仅为约21倍，非常便宜。
We can see that as of September 2026, Apple stock is very expensive today, trading at 37 times earnings, whereas in 2022 it was trading at only about 21 times earnings, making it very cheap.
我们可以更进一步，通过查看利润表、现金流量表甚至资产负债表的各个倍数来确认苹果股票目前被高估。最后一步是考虑苹果业务的质量，并确定我们是否需要向上或向下调整数字。当我思考苹果的业务时，我发现其收入高度可预测。
We can go a step further by looking at various multiples of the income statement, cash flow statement and even the balance sheet to confirm that Apple stock is currently overpriced. The final step is to consider the quality of Apple's work and determine whether we need to adjust the numbers up or down. When I think about Apple's business, I find its revenues to be highly predictable.
然而，随着业务成熟，公司近年来的增长率有所放缓。事实上，在分析苹果的增长潜力时，尽管过去十年其收入增长约为6%，但最近三年的增长率已放缓至仅约2%，利润增长也放缓至约4%。
However, the company's growth rate has slowed in recent years as its business has matured. In fact, when analyzing Apple's growth potential, while it achieved revenue growth of about 6% over the past ten years, the growth rate in the last three years has slowed to only about 2%, and profits have slowed to about 4%.
这对我来说意味着苹果已成为一家低增长公司，我认为支付高溢价来拥有这只股票没有意义。因此，虽然我认为苹果显然是一家高质量公司，但在其达到便宜水平之前，我不会单独购买其股票，这个水平大约是到2026年底每股240美元。
This means to me that Apple has become a low-growth company, and I don't think it makes sense to pay a high price premium to own this stock. So, while I think Apple is clearly a high-quality company, I wouldn't be interested in buying its stock alone until it reaches a cheap level, which is around $240 per share by the end of 2026.
他说在等什么
这个频道对 $AAPL 的历次判断
Brian Feroldi 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。