看空 AAPL，因产品定价高达 2,200 美元且技术面偏空而减持该股。
逐段跳播
现在你最后一个标的我觉得最有趣，就是因为今天这个事件的时机。你把 Apple 放在这里三大标的中的第三位。你怎么看 Apple？
Now your last one I find the most interesting just because of the timing of today's event. You've got Apple as your three in the big three here. How are you looking at Apple?
在大约 2200 美元这个价位，我并不喜欢这个想法。我几乎拥有市面上每一款 Apple 产品，疯到这种程度。但要我花这 2200 美元去买一部翻盖手机，绝无可能。我觉得这有点太极端了。
再说，Apple 这个市场，Rick，我这次甚至都不看图表。我在做空翻盖手机，说到底就是这样。我在做空翻盖手机。这会是一笔非常非常短线的交易。其实我在 Apple 最近几次产品发布中都见过这种情况。
重大产品发布出来，市场消化一下，之后有一点卖方活动。这正是我这次想抓的。但话说回来，价格在涨。我以前从没这么说过，但说到手机，1000 美元我能接受。也许 1200。再疯狂一点。
但当你开始说一部手机 2000 美元，到那个点我就退出这场较量了。那么，我要做到 SE 18。那也不算太远，对吧？所以 SE 18 会是一笔相当短久期的交易。不是零日到期，大约一周之后。
我要买入 310 看跌期权，买入 310 看跌期权，卖出 305 看跌期权。所以就是一个漂亮的 5 美元宽跨式看跌价差，以 140 美元的权利金成交。就是一点卖方活动。你看，这个发布之后你可能会看到一波拉升，那实际上会让这笔交易更容易进场，但事实是我想做空一部 2200 美元的翻盖手机，顺便说一句，这不幸的是有点太晚了。
如果你还没看，Android 那边基本上人人早就有了。我不是说我站 Android，我不会说到那个地步，但我对这款 Apple 产品的价格点并不满意。
At some $2,200, I do not love that idea. You know, I'm uh just crazy enough to own just about every Apple product out there. But, uh there's no way I'm paying this $2,200 for a uh for a flip phone. It's just I think that that's a bit extreme. And you know, I uh uh again, this marketplace in Apple, look uh Rick, I'm not even looking at the chart on this one. I'm fading the flip phone. That's that's what it comes down to. I'm fading the flip phone. This one's going to be a very very short-term trade. And you know, I've actually seen this with a number of some of the recent product releases from Apple. So, major product release comes out, the marketplace kind of absorbs it, has a little sellside activity after it. That's really what I'm going after over here. But again, the price increases. Look, I I you know, I've never said this before, but when it comes to a uh to a phone, a,000 bucks, I can swallow that. Maybe 1,200. Let's get crazy. But when you start talking about $2,000 for a phone, I'm out of the contest at that point. Uh, with that, I'm going to go out to the SE 18. That's not that far out, right? So, SE 18 is going to be a rather short duration trade. We're not talking zero DTE, but about a week out. I'm going to be buying the 310 puts, buying the 310 puts, selling the 305 puts again. So, it's just a nice tight $5 wide put spread done for a$140 debit. Just a little sellside activity. Look, you may see a pop after this announcement, which should actually make this trade even more advantageous to get into, but the uh the truth is I want to fade uh a $2200 flip phone, which uh by the way is uh unfortunately it's a little, you know, too late. Uh if you haven't looked, uh pretty much everybody out in the Android side already has that. Not saying I'm Android. I'm not going to go that far, but uh I'm not thrilled with the uh the price point on this Apple product.
我个人非常好奇 Siri 会变成什么样。如果我说 Siri 在 AI 助手当中一直是个落后者，说得客气一点，我不认为我这么说有失公允或有什么争议。
I I'm personally quite curious to see what becomes of Siri. I don't think I'm being unfair or controversial if I say Siri has been a lagard among AI uh helpers here u to put it mildly.
但我们可以看到，34457 是我们在上一次财报事件前不久创下的高点，那次财报是 7 月 30 日。从那里你可以沿着随后形成的这些高点画一条边界线。这还不算真正的趋势线。趋势线要连接三个或更多点。
但在这种情况下，你可以说财报之后确实形成了一个向上倾斜的通道。我们触及了在这里建立的接近 300 的低点。我们在接近 313 处形成了一些相对低点。但今天的价格走势，我们正在跌破这个通道，并且正在跌破那些相对低点。
所以，如果你持更看多的观点，这里并不是最好的形态，不过今天还早。我们还有这个事件即将到来。所以情况可能会有很大变化，但这里并不是你能看到的最令人鼓舞的形态。330 是我们缺口所在的位置。
那个缺口已经被回补。这里接近 337 的另一个小缺口，是如果情况开始好转时我们要留意的两个显著上行区域。现在，我们可以看到我们已经跌破了 5 日和 21 日指数移动平均线。它们大约在 316、317 左右。
我们也在向下接近 63 日指数移动平均线，接近 310。那可能是一个支撑区域。移动平均线的周期越长，作为潜在支撑来源就越重要。我们还跌破了 RSI 上的绿色趋势线，也跌破了 50 中位线。
所以现在这开始发展成更偏空的技术局面。现在我们可以看到，我们的成交量分布研究上有一些非常明显的节点。308 到 314 是一个非常密集的成交区域。另一个较小的活动区域在 295 到 300，以及接近 330 处一个非常轻微的区域。
But we can see here 34457 was our high point that we had shortly before our last earnings event which was July 30th. Uh from there you could draw a boundary line going along uh these subsequent highs that we form. Not really a trend line yet. A trend line would connect three or more points. But in this case you could say that we have a upward sloping channel that did develop after earnings. We hit our lows that we established here near 300. We had some relative lows that were formed near 313. But today's price activity, we're dipping below the channel and we're breaking through those relative lows. So, not really the the greatest setup here if you're uh having a more bullish outlook as the the day is still quite young though. We still have this event coming up. So, uh great deal could change from there, but uh not the most encouraging setup that you could see here. 330 was where we had our gap. That gap has been filled. Another small gap here near 337 would be two of our notable upside areas to be on the lookout for if things do start to turn around. Now, we can see that we have slipped below our 5-day and 21-day exponential moving averages. Those come in at about 316 317 or so. We are also approaching our 63-day exponential moving average near 310 to the downside. That could be a supportive area. The longer term the moving average, the more significant it it is as a source of potential support. We have also broken out of our green trend line on the RSI slipping below our 50 midline as well. So this is starting to uh develop into more of a bearish technical situation at this point. Now we can see here again we have some very distinct nodes on our volume profile study here. 308 to 314 is an especially heavy trading area here. Another smaller pocket of activity here 295 to 300 as well as a very uh uh slight area here near 330.
好的。现在，在我们准备迎接这个事件之际，Apple 报 31240，下跌约 1.2%，这个事件大约 90 分钟后就会开始。
All right. And right now, Apple is at 31240, down about 1.2% as we prepare for this event, which will kick off here in about uh 90 minutes or so.
这个频道对 $AAPL 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 13 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。