Adobe 的财报表现好坏参半（RPO 不及预期），但股价在技术面上保持稳定；避免大幅下跌已属正面结果。

All right. Well, we've got Adobe's earnings coming across right now. So, let's flip to those, KG. I'll get you the numbers here. Third quarter EPS coming in at $6.13. Estimate was looking for $6.08. So, we've got a beat there on EPS. Revenue for their third quarter, 6.76 billion. The estimate was for 6.7, so a slight beat there as well. As we're looking at some of their guidance here, I want to walk through their guidance. They're raising their fiscal year adjusted EPS guidance to 2445 to 2450 from a previous range of 2435 to 2445. So, a 5 cent increase, but an increase nonetheless. Revenue, they're raising to 26.58 to 26.63 billion. That's also a very small adjustment, but still an adjustment. First quarter EPS, they're expecting to see between $6.30 and $6.35. That's right in line with the 630 estimate that's at the low end of that range. Their remaining performance obligations, $22.16 billion. That missed the estimate, and that is likely why we're seeing this move to the downside. We're 1 and 1/3% lower right now. Their AI first ARR grew more than 150% year-over-year. Monthly active users here, we're looking at 1 billion across creativity and productivity solutions here. And of course, they have their new CEO coming on December 1st. They announced that last week. Did not get a great response. The street was looking for someone that was coming from the outside, perhaps. But not a huge move to the downside for Adobe. A small move.

That remaining performance obligation missed pretty significant here, KG. I would agree, but this is a very low bar for this company. If you look at the last couple of earnings announcements, actually probably last 2 years or so, they haven't been able to kind of miss either on a top line or bottom line or providing weaker guidance. I think this is a little bit more of a mixed report. You have a small revision to the upside for some of the the forward guidance. You did have the miss when it came to remaining performance obligations, but they do highlight the fact that they're trying to re-energize their premium strategy here. I think on the conference call, the market's going to really want to hear how they are going to really try to monetize that outside of subscriptions. Are they able to kind of place ads in, maybe have a little bit more of a diversified type of model when it comes to their products cuz right now there's a lot of AI products out there that are free that can do exactly or even better what a Adobe actually has to offer. So, very low bar going into this report. I don't think it's really shocking that we're seeing it kind of meandering around these current price levels.

Yeah, and the the ARR was a key metric here. I mean, the CEO giving some commentary here. They're growing, you know, exceeding 650 million. They're growing more than 150% year-over-year. How important is that to the narrative for Adobe? I mean, as you mentioned, the bar was very low. Arguably, one of the most caught up in the SaaS or SaaS-pocalypse narratives was Adobe.

I would I mean, I would agree if you're kind of looking at it, but unfortunately, when you're looking at the ARR, if you're looking at it from a nominal standpoint, it's not really it's not it's not a really big mover right now on the overall revenue front. So, it's something that's a little bit more of a icing on the cake right now. Now, if they talk about really trying to expand that particular metric with a particular strategy, then that could actually help them out, but I think that there's a lot that's already been baked into the cake when it comes to Adobe. And technically speaking, if it's able to hold these levels, I think that's actually a win for shareholders because it has been able to bounce off of the lows and make higher lows. So, technically speaking, it's trying to kind of regroup itself. Hopefully, the conference call is going to give it enough to really try to break it out. If you don't see a substantial breakdown in price, and I mean, you know, 5% or even 7% or more to the downside by tomorrow morning, I think this is a win given the recent trends that we've seen as far as the reaction for this name after earnings.

And then, K.G., on that call, what does management need to say? What does the tone need to be here? Because this is one of those cases where tone may matter more. They've already given the guidance numbers, but like you said, if they can avoid that 7% move to the downside, which I think is almost exactly 7.1% is what the options traders are pricing in for the move in either direction. What does the narrative have to be to to see us move to the upside for this name?

I think they need to talk about the the fact that they are not seeing a loss in in subscriptions or seats, especially on the enterprise front. And in fact, they're actually seeing that re-accelerate and that maybe some of the revenue they can make up some of that revenue in the future by having a little bit more pricing power. I think the big concern that you have is that if you do have an economic slowdown, you have other competition kind of hitting the space, you're going to have less seat usage and that's once again going to have an impact on the the top line. Kind of similar to what we saw for, you know, Microsoft about three to four quarters ago. That was the big fear everybody had, but obviously they've been able to overcome that with new product offerings and kind of re-energizing their own portfolio, if you will. Adobe has to do the same thing.