Amazon 估值偏低（EV/EBIT 为 22），构成潜在的短期买入机会。
逐段跳播
例如，就连Amazon的股价在过去两个月里也出现了下跌，但目前仍有许多人在大举投资这一板块。
Even Amazon's stock, for example, has declined over the past two months , yet many are currently investing heavily in the sector.
我们看到，像Amazon这样的平台受到了一定程度的影响，因为我相信Amazon已经禁止Muse在其网站上购物。
We are seeing some kind of impact on platforms like Amazon, for example, because Amazon has banned Muse from shopping, I believe, on its site.
不过，Amazon实际上并未涉足这一领域，而且它似乎已经阻止了Muse应用访问该领域。Amazon的股价目前对应的企业价值与息税前利润之比（EV/EBIT）为22倍，是25年来的最低水平。
Amazon, however, is not actually involved in this area, and it appears to have blocked the Muse app from accessing it. Amazon shares are currently trading at an enterprise value to earnings before interest and taxes (EV/EBIT) ratio of 22, their lowest in 25 years.
这给所有这些事情带来了一种令人安心的感觉。你必须假定所有这些高管都非常聪明，他们最终会想出解决办法，但这表明Amazon在短期内可能是一个非常好的机会。
This brings a sense of reassurance to all these matters. You have to assume that all of these executives are very smart, and they will eventually come up with a solution, but what this suggests is that Amazon could be a very good opportunity in the short term.
如你所知，Toby，我们在网站上为Amazon、Meta、Microsoft和Google做过交易，到目前为止它们都很成功。
As you know, Toby, we've done deals on the site for Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Google, and they've all been successful so far.
但Amazon的股价相比我们开始时略有下跌，不过卖出看跌期权是成功的，我们甚至在250的价位卖出了一份看跌期权。它被执行了。我相信到期日时股价大约在246。所以，我们最初卖出看跌期权时获得了权利金，随后又在260的价位卖出了一份看涨期权。
因此，我们最终在盈亏平衡点，也就是大约246或247的价位持有了该股，之后又得以利用股价上涨至260的机会，而现在股价又回落了。
but Amazon's stock is down a bit from where we started, but the put option selling was successful, we even sold a put option at 250. It was executed. I believe the share price was around 246 at the expiry date .
So, we got a premium when we sold the put option initially , and then we sold a call option at 260. Thus, we ended up owning the stock at the breakeven point, i.e., around 246 or 247, and then we were able to take advantage of the stock rising to 260, and now the price has dropped again.
事实上，今天有一条关于Amazon的交易建议，建议在更低的价位卖出看跌期权。我认为我们相信Amazon和Metal的商业模式。当你能够以比历史平均水平更具吸引力的估值买入其股票，并且如果你相信投入这些巨额资本支出的最终资本回报会不错，那么我认为Bill Ackerman已经为此提出了很好的理由。
In fact, there was a trading suggestion today on Amazon to sell a put option at a lower price. I think we believe in the business models of Amazon and Metal. And when you can buy its shares at valuations that are more attractive than historical averages, and if you believe that the ultimate return on capital invested in these massive capital expenditures will be good, then I think Bill Ackerman has made a good case for it.
简而言之，他们正在满足需求。这不仅仅是建造过剩产能；需求是存在的。所以他们拿到了这些东西的合同，这些是分期交付的合同之类。也就是说，如果你获得良好的投资回报，那么一旦我们走过资本支出周期的另一端、并且这变得触手可及，你就会看到利润和自由现金流上升。
是的，他们的回报可能会略有提高，但很明显，他们所瞄准的投资回报要高得多。
Well, in short, they are meeting the demand. This is not simply about building a surplus; the demand is there. So they get contracts for these things, which are time-separated contracts and the like.
That is , if you get a good return on investment, you will see profits and free cash flow rise once we get to the other side of the capital expenditure cycle and it becomes within their reach .
Yes, their returns may increase slightly, but it is clear that the return on investment they are targeting is much higher.
是的，这就是那些不密切关注的人所说的投入资本回报率。我认为一个很好的类比是2020年的Amazon。他们建了大量的产能，我认为当时的说法是，他们在2020年建造产能时有点做过头了，因为所有人都待在家里。
他们过多地使用了所有这些服务。Amazon当时可能高估了未来的需求，所以产能建得略微超前，并在短期内因此受到惩罚，因为那段短时间内的资本支出对自由现金流造成了负面影响。但由于需求旺盛及其快速增长，他们在过去几年里已经用尽了所有这些产能，现在他们正在建造更多，我认为这就是真正正在发生的事情。
Yes, this is the return on invested capital for those who do not follow it closely. I think a good analogy is Amazon during 2020. They built up a lot of production capacity , and I think the argument was that they overdid it a bit in building that capacity during 2020 because everyone was staying home.
They were using all those services far too much . Amazon may have overestimated future demand at that time, so they built slightly ahead production capacity , and were penalized for it in the short term because it negatively impacted their free cash flow due to the capital expenditure in that short period.
But because of the high demand and its rapid growth, they have exhausted all that production capacity over the past few years , and now they are building more, and I think that is what is really happening.
即使他们高估了短期需求，需求最终也会赶上这些支出。
Even if they overestimate short-term demand, demand will eventually catch up with this spending.
但目前尚不清楚是否会出现单一的赢家，我认为更有可能的是会出现几个赢家。有一件有趣的事情值得考虑，Jake Taylor和我曾稍微讨论过，那就是消费者剩余。产品剩余是指他们扩张并随后夺取市场份额，就像Microsoft那样，其办公套件带来了巨大的产品剩余，但还有消费者剩余，这正是人们继续使用它的原因。
But it is certainly not clear whether there will be a single winner, or I think it is more likely that there will be several winners. There is one interesting thing to consider, which Jake Taylor and I have talked about a bit, and that is consumer surplus.
Product surplus is when they expand and then capture a market share, as is the case with Microsoft, which has a huge product surplus from its office suite, but there is also consumer surplus, which is why people continue to use it.
这个频道对 $AMZN 的历次判断
The Acquirers Podcast 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。