AMZN 当前估值合理，且在罗素1000价值指数中位列第一大或第二大成分股，不过资本开支方面的担忧依然存在。

We have a decline in Amazon and Meta shares, while Apple and Microsoft shares are rising . So, the picture is divided this morning across the " Great Seven" group.

So, let's delve into the details of Amazon's situation. However, when looking at the performance list, it can be said that Amazon is in the middle in terms of performance. Clearly, the fundamentals are very strong.

Could you please explain your point of view regarding the price movement?

Yes, I think Amazon has one of the most interesting positions among the " Great Seven" stocks today . As I mentioned, the fundamentals were very strong. They announced their second-quarter results in July, with a 20% year-over-year increase in revenue , a 43% increase in operating income, and even higher gains in net income if you adjust for the fact that they have a 20% stake in Anthropic, which of course has increased in value.

However, despite this strong performance, we have seen a rather modest price movement . There was a rise after the earnings announcement, but since then we have given back all of those gains, I think by about 15% since that high level.

I think the concern is not so much about the financial data, but rather about what Amazon is doing with regard to its investments and capital expenditures. Isn't that so? They raised their 2026 capital spending guidance from $200 billion to $220 billion, making their free cash flow negative for the first time in several years.

They even resorted to borrowing to help finance this expansion. So, that's the big question. Investors are skeptical that all this spending will translate into long-term returns for the company.

I think it's worth considering what they are doing. This bold investment in capital expenditure is entirely in line with Amazon's history. It is an integral part of her DNA. If you go back to the beginnings of Amazon, in the first twenty years.

The company achieved virtually no positive net income and virtually no positive free cash flow, because it was investing enormously hard in building its business . As you know, as someone who works in the field of intangible assets, I believe that Amazon has been, in many ways, the best investor in intangible assets in the world.

What I mean by that is, for example, that they have built network effects in the form of the best logistics network in the world. They spent a lot of money on research and development to build what eventually became Amazon Web Services, their most profitable sector, and focused on keeping prices low, even though they may have lost some profits, in order to satisfy customers and build a good reputation and brand among them.

Thus , all these investments clearly accumulated and led them to where they are now as a company valued at $2.6 trillion.

Now, the difference today is that they continue to invest heavily, which is of course what you would expect them to do. However, there are two major differences. Firstly, investments today are in physical capital expenditures .

That is, they are not intangible assets that accumulate over time and are often overlooked by analysts , but rather very tangible investments , such as purchasing graphics processing units and building data centers.

Secondly, while they were ahead of their time in e-commerce and cloud computing, they are now just one player among many in the AI arms race. Google, Meta , Microsoft, Oracle , and even SpaceX.

They are all competing for the same share here. There is a question related to teamwork: Will the dynamics of game theory drive them to overbuild, thereby reducing the profits and returns they can achieve from this investment?

Therefore, I believe there is justifiable concern that has affected the stock price.

However, Amazon stock is currently trading at a 20% earnings per share, but that doesn't account for all these investments in interesting intangible assets , which, if you take them into account, you'll find come almost for free.

Therefore, they are traded at a good valuation. In fact, I think it is now the largest or second largest in the Russell 1000 value index, which is interesting for a technology company like Amazon that is growing at this rate.

Yes, I think they have a lot of positives, but there are clearly legitimate concerns about how overall capital spending will develop.

Okay, just help me understand accurately. You've done a really good job explaining the timeline here . This is a very diversified business . I am following what you are saying, of course, but is the concern now where the money is going?

Where is this bold capitalist expansion being directed ? Because most of the funding is supposedly directed towards data centers and artificial intelligence infrastructure . I mean, what metrics is Wall Street watching now to see evidence of return on investment?

I think there are two things that need to be considered. The first one, in the short term, is whether they sell their obligations in advance? Do they have a backlog of orders? Are they generating near-term revenue from their expansions?

The answer is yes, and the answer is broadly yes to all of these companies. True, there is clearly a huge demand for artificial intelligence tasks at the moment. There is some risk of customer concentration because so much of it comes from companies like Anthropic and OpenAI.

However, we see this demand in the near term. I think the question is whether investors are rightly looking ahead to what will happen in 5 to 10 years. They raise questions about the possibility that these AI labs could become commoditized because of open-source or Chinese models.

There may be breakthroughs in the efficiency of these models such that we don't need as much computing power to run the same size of tasks. There are concerns about whether enterprise customers and end users will generate enough returns to justify their spending on tokens and inference, which subsequently flows to companies like Amazon. Isn't that so ?

It is clear that we are in the early stages of the artificial intelligence revolution. The spread is still in its early stages. I think that around 20 to 30 % of American companies are using artificial intelligence in a meaningful way, which is still a very low number.

Many companies are just testing it. They are currently testing it. Their boards of directors tell them: "You should try using artificial intelligence." Of course they will , but they will continue to use artificial intelligence only to the extent that it generates worthwhile returns for their own businesses.

Show us an example of trading this stock, which has retreated from the high levels it reached in the summer. Therefore, I believe there is a catalyst coming for Amazon that could lead to a reversal in the stock's direction; however, there is a rising 200-day moving average that the stock may head towards before any kind of trend reversal occurs.

Therefore, I will structure a deal around this situation without needing to specify the direction or size precisely. In this case, what I would do is sell a put option at $240 and buy a put option at $230 below that level.

So, it is simply a process of selling the difference between put options. In general, you can sell this for about $2 per share or $2 per contract. These options are for October , so we have about 22 days until the expiry date.

Ideally, the condition is that the $240 level holds, and if that happens, the $2 premium will fade to zero within the next 22 days. The risk in this transaction is $8 , and will be realized if the stock reaches $230 or less by the expiration date.

But basically, the $240 strike price at which Delta is selling is around 30, which means a potential profit of 70%, or in other words, the stock will remain above $240 by the expiration date in the next three weeks.