在资本配置上，Amazon 比 Meta 更受青睐，因其资本开支的理由更为合理。
逐段跳播
显然，谈到像 Meta 这样的公司时，到现在它会是其中之一，但在此之前主要是 Amazon，是 Oracle，一家我未必会想到的公司。然后还有 Google，当然还有 Microsoft。
Um, so obviously when you talk about companies like Meta, by now it would be one of them, but before that it was primarily Amazon, it was Oracle, you know, a company that I didn't necessarily think about it.
Um, and then you have Google and of course you also have Microsoft.
那么 Amazon 与 Enthropic 建立了合作。
then Amazon is partnered with Enthropic
我想我之前跟你提过，但如果你想想 Amazon 当初做 AWS 时的情况，很多人说，你知道，问题在于你有一家高盈利的公司、一项高利润率的业务，现在突然之间你有了这笔巨大的资本开支，对吧，这笔巨额资金，你在很长一段时间里基本上不间断地必须投入到这项业务中，而人们当时说，这大概是一项利润率更低的业务，我为什么要拥有一项利润率更低而不是利润率更高的业务呢。
I think I mentioned it to you earlier but if you think about what Amazon did with AWS in the beginning a lot of people said you know the problem with this is you have highly profitable company a high margin business now suddenly you have this huge capex right this huge amount of money that you for a very long time basically without a stop have to invest in the business and people were saying this is probably a lower margin business why would I want to own a business that has lower margins instead of higher margins
但显然你需要比较的是你能够赚取以及能够投入的绝对金额。如果你能把数百亿、数千亿美元投入到你公司的某个板块，并且能从中获得 10% 的回报，那可能比投资于一种资本轻型的商业模式赚到的钱多得多，那种模式通常回报更高、利润率更高，但你能投入的资本要少得多。
but obviously what you need to compare is the absolute amount of money that you can earn and also deploy If you can deploy tens and hundreds of billions of dollars into a certain segment in your company and you can earn a 10% return on that could be much more money than you know invest in a capital light business model where you make a higher return a higher margin generally but you can deploy significantly fewer capital.
我对 Meta 的疑虑之一在于，他们的资本开支叙事看起来比 Alphabet 和 Amazon 要投机得多，后两者至少对他们将如何运用这些正在投入的算力有更说得通的解释。
And one of my issues with Meta is that their capex spinning just seems so much more speculative than Alphabet and Amazon where they have at least a more plausible explanation for what they'll do with all this computing power that they're investing in.
老实说，用我们投入的任何增量资金，或者我们已持有的其他一些优秀企业，我大概会更愿意去增持 Alphabet 或 Amazon 的股票，这并不是说我认为 Meta 不会做得极其出色。
And honestly, I'd be more excited probably to accumulate shares in Alphabet or or Amazon with any incremental capital we invest or some of the other great businesses we already own, which is not to say I don't think Meta won't do incredibly well.
这个频道对 $AMZN 的历次判断
The Intrinsic Value Podcast 在这只股票上共 3 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。