博通基本面（增长、利润率）强劲，尽管近期业绩指引不及预期，但股价仍被低估/便宜。

We have "Broadcom" on the list.

So now it is clear that all eyes will be on Broadcom. They will announce their results at approximately 4:15.

Let's take note of some of these numbers while we wait for Broadcom's results.

We are still waiting for Broadcom. The results are clearly expected within six minutes.

Well, Broadcom's results haven't been released yet. So now we are looking for , let's see. The adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter truly exceeded expectations . So the revenues were superior here, but let's write that down too. Second quarter. Adjusted earnings per share reach 62 cents compared to 45 cents. This is a 62 divided by 45 advantage. This is a 37.7% advantage. Superiority. That's very good. Something really big. Let me hide myself there. I was covering some of that. So that's very good. Now what we're going to do is , let's send that. And in a few moments we will also go through Broadcom's numbers. But this is great. So let's now write " Broadcom". So this is Snowflake, and this is HP. AVGO, Broadcom. Oh. AVGO. AVGO, Broadcom is next. We'll see what comes up regarding this company. That will be fun.

Broadcom will announce its results in three minutes.

Good. So, we are now one minute away. One minute, as we say, from "Broadcom".

30 seconds for Broadcom. The results are expected to be released within 30 seconds. I don't know , who knows? It might end up being delayed.

Okay , let's go. Brood...oh, here we go . Broadcom. Broadcom is achieving better-than-expected results. 3.32 versus estimates of 3.23. Net revenue 29.59 versus 29.45. A slight advantage. Instructions. Oh, the instructions were disappointing. Oh, my God. Oh my God. The instructions did not reach the intended recipient. Not again. This...this is what happened last time too. They...they provided slightly less guidance than expected. Hey buddy, the stock has dropped by 20%. How strange. What the hell is going on?

Okay, let's jot down some numbers here while we keep an eye on what's going on with Broadcom. So, we will be monitoring Broadcom. Broadcom is here live. So Broadcom is in decline. Oh. Well, we now have net revenue for the third quarter at 29.59 billion versus 29.45 billion. So this is kind of... I mean, I hate to say it, but it's very simple, isn't it? 29.45. This is a superiority of only 0%, not 1%, but about 48% superiority. Something simple, isn't it? This is a slight advantage. Then you have the adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter. Adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter were 3.32 compared to 3.23. So this is also a slight improvement over expectations. So, Wall Street had fairly high expectations here. This is a 2.78% or 9% increase . Then, where they really disappointed was with the total revenue for the fourth quarter. Fourth quarter expectations were not met . Okay, it will be 34.8 34.8 versus 35.05 billion. 35 divided by 35.05 billion. This is a deficit of approximately 0.7%.

Next, we will talk a little about Broadcom. I am very curious to see how a snowflake rises so high . Let's begin. Let me take a look at their financial data. Yes , Credo may have been a bad omen for Broadcom.

Okay, let's move on to Broadcom, which is a big deal. It's only about 4% lower now. It's at my 355 level . I can see that. Let's open Broadcom's numbers. Okay, Broadcom's investor relations. Okay, here we are. Old printer version . Oh, I can just click on Download PDF copy. I liked that. It is actually a PDF version . I will accept it.

Broadcom's Q3 earnings release 9226. Well, nobody cares, but here it is . Look, look at the PDF version. This is not just a regular Adobe document. This is the real PDF. Do not confuse it with anything else. Good.

Broadcom Broadcom. The lady's instructions. Yes, we have already seen that. Okay, then, let's take a quick look. We can make a comparison between one quarter and another. We can also look at just this quarter. We can see that the cash flow is actually very good here. Look at that. 14, let's say 13.6 billion of free cash flow. truly? That's too much. But yes, millions for the twenty-sixth quarter . Wow, man. That's a lot of amazing cash flow.

Net income of $13 billion . Oh, my God. Man , these people are printing money. What is this? Proceeds from the repayment of commercial papers, debt payments, and dividend payments. Oh, good. They paid off some of the debts this quarter. great. 5.6 billion to pay off debts. 3.1 billion in distributed profits. good.

So , we didn't take on any new debt. This is good. So, we pay off the debts. We are actually making the payment. If you look back here, at what they do. Look at this. This is debt repayment. Debt repayment. Debt repayment. Payment of commercial papers. Debt repayment . That was in August, three financial quarters. So, that's nine months. So, some of these accumulate together, but there are returns from long-term borrowing.

But the problem is, you know, you have to stop here kind of because here they only borrow what they pay back. So, this is more like refinancing. That's it. This is most likely . So, they are in the debt repayment phase. They have stopped borrowing. Stop borrowing. Oops. They started borrowing. They started paying back, my love. Okay, let's see how many dollars they actually make.

If you haven't joined us yet to receive the Alpha Report every day before the market opens on short, medium and long-term trades , fundamental analysis and of course long-term theses, stocks and trading alerts. Be sure to visit us at meekke.com. Not the coupon that expires on Friday. We postponed it because we encountered a payment system error, which was very unfortunate, on the evening of the coupon's expiry last week. We were very upset by that. I think that's justified. I would say that is justified. Yes. Yes, that's justified. Okay, man .

Their revenues are up almost 100% year-on-year. Look at that. 29591 divided by 15952. That's 85.5% on an annualized basis. Then on a sequential basis. From the last quarter, 29591 divided by 22187 equals 33%. It is actually a faster rate. This is acceleration. So they are growing faster this quarter than they were growing at last year. Their revenues are exploding like crazy.

Their cost of revenue is 7624 divided by 5301, which is a 43.8% increase in cost. On an annual basis, I am at 7624 divided by 374, which is a 105% increase on an annual basis. Let me rephrase this a little, 105% on an annual basis and 43.8% on a sequential basis.

So, to be fair, this is a sign of weak PP. Ah, PP is weaker though. So there is pressure on the margins. Then we obtained some gross profit margins . I have a negative SGNA. Oh, sorry, yes, SGNA is negative. R&D is negative. wow.

So their operating income, oh, there it is. The actual operating income is 15955 divided by 10788, which is 47%. Ah, a consecutive increase in operating income. Therefore, operational efficiency compensates for weaker overall profit margins . Good.

If you divide 15955 by 587, you get 2.71 times. That's about a 171 % year-on-year increase in net profit. Ah, good performance. Honestly, they are doing, what is this? Press releases. An epic collection of partnerships. Oh, you're referring to partnerships. Oh, yes. Ah, okay. Anyway, focusing on this, this is very good.

So the situation is a bit mixed because you see their margins improving in earnings per share, but remember they have disappointed expectations in revenue. This is the second consecutive quarter in which revenue expectations have been missed. This is the second consecutive quarter in which a portion of the revenue forecast has been missed.

Broadcom's balance sheet is rather bad. I'll take a look at UiPath in a little while. I don't mind doing that.

Ah, let's see, where is she? Here it is. This is what I remember: the balance sheet is bad. Good. So, I have 57 billion in long-term debt. Damn it. Can you imagine waking up one day? Oh, yes. I have $57 billion in debt.

Current liabilities, I have 15. I have 16.5. Can I hear 20.5? Yes, I hear that. Short-term. If I go up here to criticism, I have both criticism and debts owed . I will grant them the debts owed . I'll even zoom in upwards. I will be very kind and generous. I will calculate 14 and 24, which is 48 billion. So, as you know, there are a lot of bills to pay , but long-term debt is a burden. I'm glad they started paying it back. Because they will still have about 37 billion after that.

What is their cash flow return, though? Their cash flow return must be insane with this cash flow. Although its market value, I believe it reaches a trillion dollars . So, to be fair, you know , it's probably better if they achieve this kind of cash flow.

So, the cash flow I received this year. What were the expectations? I am absolutely certain that they gave me predictions. Oh, I don't see it down there . Good. What about here? Fourth quarter and fiscal year. Okay , that's fine then. Damn you guys. I'll do it the old-fashioned way. Oh , wait. Here it is. A little criticism. Free cash flow . Yes, that's a quarter, but I need a year. Free cash flow. Yes, they don't provide it to me on an annual basis. Good.

No problem, friends. We will go here . Last year, free cash flow amounted to 26 billion. That could actually rise to $51 billion this year. So the forecast is $51 billion . $51 billion in free cash flow projections ending October 31, 2026.

Now this will end up being more than, what, a 3 or 4% cash flow return. The market value is 1.75 multiplied by 0.96 for the discount they just went down by. That's 1680.52 divided by 1680. Ah, that's 3%. Good. I mean, but it's not bad. So, 3%. 3% free cash flow return and expectations for this guy. 3. Well, it's low now.

How much is it worth? 355. Let's divide 355 by 1156. That equals 30.71 times as multiple predictions for this. We expect, oh, let's see, profit margins to be in the fifties. Man, these guys are raising the margins drastically. They are, as you know, a 55% net expected margin, the expected growth is 66.4 + 34 26 539.67 67 divided by 4 34%. Oh, average growth over 4 years .

Hey buddy, it's less than one for the growth factor (PEG). Oh my God. 30.71 divided by 34 equals 0.90. This is madness. This is very cheap for these margins.

As you know, this is a very similar discount to what happens at Nvidia. Broadcom and Nvidia are only penalized because of these high expectations, and when they make a small mistake or whatever. It's just not perfect enough , and the stock is falling .

Growth with Broadcom enjoys higher profit margins than UiPath according to current forecasts. But, 15, 27, 41, 16, 62, 38, 46 divided by four, that's about 22% growth, so it's also about a PEG ratio of one for UI Path. But UI Path's margins, uh, are around 24 to 25 % net; While AVGO's margins are around 55%. So something strange is going on. Like some of those hardware companies , they are actually making real profits . Ah, it's truly amazing only because these ratings are so low. Ah, it's just a simple miss of instructions and you end up being punished. But, uh, you know, the uptrend here at Broadcom is probably three times as much at the moment . I mean, it's not my favorite company with the most debt, but I'll tell you, every time this stock gets cheaper, this package of devices coming, unless the bubble bursts soon, looks like some of them have been oversold . Ah, so it just makes you want to buy everything. Good.

This is another one I really like. Let me tell you... but I will say that Broadcom's financial data is better.

Why " Nvidia" or "Avgo", I don't know, what are the names of other cheap devices? Um, honestly, "Credo," "Marvel," you know those, those people. While Avgo and Nvidia are probably the cheapest, even AMD, although more expensive, I'd say a little, let me see the expectations now. So, if you go to, let me get it quick, if you go to Marvel, I'm at Marvel, and AMD is at 1.58. Marvell has a Profitability Growth Factor (PEG) of 1. Yes. So this is a coefficient of 1. 1.58 is the coefficient for "AMD" . Let's see. "Credo" is approximately 1. "Nvidia" is 0.75. 0.75. This is 1. Then if you go to "Broadcom". " Avgo", "Broadcom", " Broadcom" at 0.93. Oh, we just did the math . Let me make sure it's still there . We literally just turned it on. 0.9. Yes. correct. So here. So, 0.9 . And now suddenly these men have started to become really cheap. Like Salesforce, which went from nothing ridiculous, look, Salesforce is still at a coefficient of 0.91, 0.91 as an example. Bath at 0.92, ServiceNow at 153.92. Aya 1.53, I have an intention at. 0.9 , Axon 2.1. 2.19. What did you say about Intuit? I had already forgotten. I don't want to write it incorrectly and then get reprimanded. 0.9. You know, Snow is the anomaly here, isn't he ? So, Snow is the anomaly in this insane assessment. But it's strange because these companies are making really good money , and they're being punished either because of fear, lack of margins, or because people think the bubble is over. The only thing I can guess is. You know, when we look at this graph we have here. There is a fear that this shift in programming may not last. So, you know, I think if I look at this, I still like my opinion, and my conclusion is that I still like software right now. But at some point, devices will become ridiculously cheap , to the point that they will once again become the new opportunity. Hmm, not yet. Perhaps we need an " anthropic retreat". Good. I mean , Dell is doing well, but you also have the risk of splitting, right? Also, with regard to devices, this is where the risks of division come from. We've talked before about the risk of splitting here, where AI and frontier inference growth slows, while low-margin institutional inference explodes. This may be what the markets are trying to explore, I don't know. if . My opinion remains that the software is really interesting. Snowflakes are really expensive. At some point, hardware becomes more desirable, but software is great. I still believe that reaching the bottom in the third and fourth quarters is still possible. And depressions like Balantir are exploitable. In my opinion.

Let's take a quick look at what happened to Broadcom's earnings as its stock fell by 3%. It has missed its revenue forecast for the next quarter again. This happened last time due to shipments of allocated chips, and the stock plummeted by 20%. A further 3% drop now in after-hours trading. That's not a good thing. What's going on ? Was Credo Technologies a warning of what was to come? Perhaps a little bit of pricing power pressure. I don't know . We'll take a look at it and see. Then of course there was this crazy explosion in "S โน Flick". "Sin Flake" stock jumped 20% in about 10 seconds, that's how it looked after the earnings . It's like, wait a minute. This cannot be based on the fundamentals. It looks like pressure on exposed positions. Let's review both of them and try to understand what's going on here.

On the other hand, Broadcom missed expectations for the fourth quarter. By a difference of only 7%.

Anyway, let's now think about Broadcom. So this is the software aspect that is thriving thanks to "Short Squeeze", but as you know, the rating is questionable, isn't it? Then you literally have the exact opposite story, almost like a tale of two cities. Here's a company worth $1.75 trillion. It has a projected cash flow for 2026 of $52 billion. About 13.6 billion of them are in this damn quarter here. 13 billion in one quarter. The free cash flow forecast of 50 or 51 billion represents a cash yield of 3%. This is very good for a company valued at $1.75 trillion. Sorry. Free cash flow yield of 3%. This is unbelievable. They have stopped borrowing. So, they were paying off their debts over the past two quarters. Prior to that quarter, they had done a small refinancing. This is the only thing I don't like about Broadcom. It's the only thing that's stopping me from wanting to buy this company, even though I wanted to. I have been eagerly anticipating this company. I have a thesis on this eventually, but I have $48 billion in short-term cash, which is enough to pay my bills. I have 20.5 billion in bills, okay. So, I have $28 billion in free cash. Basically, I have 57 billion in long-term debt. So, consider it $30 billion as long-term debt after cash expenditure if you wish. As you know, $30 billion is debt for a company valued at $1.75 trillion. It's probably not a big problem. I might just say, "Man, 30 billion seems like a lot of money." But on the other hand, the company literally has net margins of 55%. It's absolutely insane how much money they make.

Let's see what the final result was in this quarter. The bottom line was actually a little weaker this quarter. Therefore, the annual forecast brings them back to approximately 55%. You can see the net income. So after income taxes and all the complications, compared to their net revenue of 29.591 billion, the ratio is 44%. This still surpasses Apple by leaps and bounds. This is a net profit level that is close to that of Microsoft. Their net profits are expected to exceed 54% and be closer to 55%, especially over the next few years. They make a lot of money in the end.

Did that happen at Broadcom? Let's go and see. So, we move on to Broadcom. What did we see at Broadcom? We saw revenues accelerate by 85% year-on-year. And a sequential growth rate of 33%. Crazy growth figures. But the answer is: yes. The pricing power is also weak with respect to the cost of revenues. So, just like Credo, their costs have grown faster than their revenues, at least in this quarter and on an annual basis. Those were the two comparisons we made. In both cases, you had faster growth in costs. However, in Broadcom's case, their spending on research and development was actually negative. Their sales, general and administrative expenses were negative. Therefore, they compensated for the higher cost of goods sold by essentially being a more efficient company. This is impressive. You know, if you look here, Credo had to increase its selling expenses by 43%. Broadcom clearly outperformed them. In other words, Broadcom was much more efficient. Credo was actually less efficient, unfortunately, during this quarter and had weaker pricing power. Broadcom was more efficient, but it also suffered a bit of that pressure on margins.

Now, look at the rating. This was interesting. So look at Broadcom's valuation, and Broadcom comes in with a price-to-earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio of nine, which is crazy because there is a four-year projected growth of 34%. It trades at 30 times, while Salesforce or sorry, Snowflake trades at 4.5 times or whatever the number is, which is unreasonable.

Unfortunately, the frontier side will also include Marvell, Broadcom, and Credo, and this is closer to data centers, frontier technologies, and giant corporations.

That is, it is still equivalent to half of what Broadcom has,

If you look at the AVGO stock. Okay , are you ready for this? I just want you to see how cheap these stocks are right now. I estimated its price at around $1000 because of the profit margins they have.

Therefore, advanced artificial intelligence continues to grow. Man, these data centers just keep growing. Broadcom is in an excellent position. I really admire him. AVGO stock is at 0.9.