博通处于极佳位置；说话者看好它，但对其过去的债务再融资有所保留。
逐段跳播
Snowflake 和博通刚刚发布了收益，我们将比较其中一些数据与硬件和软件领域的各种机会。
Snowflake and Broadcom have just released their earnings , and we will be comparing some of these figures with various opportunities in the hardware and software sectors.
让我们快速看一下博通的收益情况，该公司股价下跌了 3%，因为它再次未达到下一季度的收入预测。上次发生这种情况是由于专用芯片交付，股价随后下跌了 20%，现在在交易时间后又下跌了 3%。这不是好事。发生了什么？
Let's take a quick look at what happened with Broadcom's earnings, where the company's stock fell by 3% after it once again missed its revenue forecast for the next quarter. This happened last time due to dedicated chip deliveries , and the stock then fell by 20%, and it is now down another 3% after trading hours. That's not a good thing. What's going on?
另一方面，博通未达到第四季度的预测，误差率仅为 0.7%。
On the other hand , Broadcom missed its fourth-quarter forecast, with an error rate of only 0.7%.
无论如何，现在让我们想想博通。所以，这是蓬勃发展的软件方面，因为开放中心覆盖，但你知道，估值是有问题的，对吧？然后你确实有完全相反的故事。这几乎就像双城记。这里有一家估值 1.75 万亿美元的公司。
它预计 2026 年现金流为 520 亿美元。其中 136 亿美元在这个该死的季度。本季度 130 亿美元，自由现金流预测为 16 亿美元。500-510 亿美元意味着 3% 的现金流收益率。
对于一家 1.75 万亿美元的公司来说，这相当不错，哎呀。3% 的自由现金流收益率，那太不可思议了。他们已经停止借贷，所以在过去两个季度一直在偿还债务，在那之前，他们做了一点再融资。
这是我不喜欢博通的一件事。这是阻止我想购买这家公司的一件事，即使我真的很想并且渴望拥有它。我对此最终有一个论点。
Anyway, now let's think about Broadcom. So, that's the software side that's thriving because of the open-center coverage , but you know, the valuation is questionable , right? Then you literally have the exact opposite story. It's almost like a tale of two cities . Here's a company that 's valued at $1.75 trillion. It has a projected 2026 cash flow of $52 billion. $13.6 billion of that is in this damn quarter here. $13 billion in the quarter, and the free cash flow projection is $1.6 billion." $ 50-51 billion means a 3% cash flow yield. That's pretty good for a $ 1.75 trillion company , oops. A 3% free cash flow yield, that's incredible. They've stopped borrowing, so they've been paying down debt in the last two quarters, and before that, they did a little refinancing. That's the one thing I do n't like about Broadcom. It's the one thing that's stopping me from wanting to buy this company, even though I really wanted to and I was dying to own it. I have a thesis on that eventually.
但我有 480 亿美元的短期现金，这足以支付我的账单。我有 205 亿美元的账单，好的。所以，我基本上有 280 亿美元的可用现金。我有 570 亿美元的长期债务，所以假设我花掉现金后是 300 亿美元，如果我想花的话。
你知道，对于一家 1.75 万亿美元的公司来说，300 亿美元的长期债务，也许不是大事。也许我在想：“天哪，300 亿美元听起来很多。”但话又说回来，这家公司确实有 55% 的净利润率。他们赚了多少钱，这绝对疯狂。
But I have $48 billion in short-term cash, which is enough to pay my bills. I have $20.5 billion in bills, okay. So, I have $28 billion in available cash, basically. I have $57 billion in long-term debt, so let's say $ 30 billion after I spend my cash if I want to spend it on it . You know, $ 30 billion in long-term debt for a $1.75 trillion company, maybe not a big deal. Maybe I'm thinking Just, "Man , $30 billion sounds like a lot." But then again, the company literally has a 55% net profit margin. It's absolutely insane how much money they're making.
啊，让我们看看这个季度的底线。啊，底线实际上这个季度有点弱。所以，同比预测将他们降至 55% 左右。你会看到扣除所得税后的净收入，以及所有那些乱七八糟的东西，与他们的净收入相比，29,591，是 44%。
尽管如此，老兄，这远远领先于苹果。这是一个与微软相媲美的净利润水平。他们的净利润预计将高于 54%，接近 55%，尤其是在未来几年。他们在底线赚了很多钱。
Ah, let's see what the bottom line was this quarter . Ah, the bottom line was actually a little weaker this quarter. So, the year-over-year forecast brings them down to around 55%. You'll see net income after income taxes, and after all that crap, compared to their net revenue, 29,591, is 44%. Still, dude, that's way ahead of Apple. It's a level of net profit that rivals Microsoft's. Their net profit is projected to be above 54%, closer to 55%, especially over the next few years. They're making a lot of money at the bottom line.
现在，公平地说，对博通的一些负面情绪是否可能是由于前沿 AI 的威胁变得不那么有吸引力？
Now, in fairness, could some of the negativity toward Broadcom be due to the threat of frontier AI becoming less appealing?
好的，继续看博通，我们在博通看到了什么？我们看到收入同比加速增长 85%，环比增长 33%。这些是疯狂的增长数字。但答案是什么？是的。另外，定价权减弱和收入成本上升。所以，就像 Credo 一样，他们的成本增长快于收入，至少在本季度和同比。
所以，这是我们做的两个比较。在这两种情况下，你都有更快的成本增长。然而，在博通的案例中，他们的研发支出实际上是负的。他们的总务、行政和销售费用是负的。所以，他们通过本质上成为一家更高效的公司来抵消更高的销售成本。
那令人印象深刻。你知道，如果你看这里，Credo 不得不将销售额提高 43%。博通显然超过了他们。换句话说，博通效率高得多。Credo 实际上效率较低，不幸的是，本季度，他们的定价权较弱。博通效率更高，但他们确实受到利润率压力的影响。
Okay, moving on to Broadcom, what did we see at Broadcom? We saw revenue accelerating 85% year over year , and sequential growth of 33%. Those are crazy growth numbers. But what's the answer? Yes. Also, weaker pricing power and a higher cost of revenue. So, just like Credo, their costs grew faster than their revenue, at least this quarter and year over year . So, those were the two comparisons we made. In both cases, you had faster cost growth. However, in Broadcom's case, their R &D spending was actually negative. And their general, administrative, and selling expenses were negative. So, they offset the higher cost of goods sold by essentially being a more efficient company. That's impressive. You know, if you look here, Credo had to increase sales by 43%. Broadcom clearly outperformed them . In other words, Broadcom was much more efficient. Credo was actually less efficient , unfortunately, this quarter, and they had weaker pricing power. Broadcom was more efficient, but they suffered a bit from that pressure on profit margins.
所以，现在你看估值。那很有趣。所以，我看博通的估值，博通的增长率是市盈率与增长比率（PEG）为 9，这很疯狂，因为四年预计增长为 34%，而它的交易价格是 30 倍。
So, now you look at the valuation. That was interesting. So, I look at Broadcom's valuation, and Broadcom comes in with a growth rate of The price-to-earnings (PEG) is nine, which is crazy because there's a four-year projected growth of 34% and it's trading at 30x.
前沿方面，不幸的是，也将是 Marvell、博通和 Credo。这是关于数据中心和超大规模的前沿技术。所以，其中一些有点挣扎的，有点在这个前沿方面。
The frontier side, unfortunately, is also going to be Marvell, Broadcom, and Credo. This is about frontier technologies for data centers, and hyperscales. So, some of those that are struggling a bit, are kind of on this frontier side.
UI Path 的利润率在 24% 到 25% 之间，因此这仍然大约是博通利润率的一半。
UI Path has margins of 24% to 25%, so that's still about half of Broadcom's margins.
博通处于极佳的位置。我非常看好它。
Broadcom is in an excellent position. I really like it.
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