GOOGL 为持有评级；估值合理（远期市盈率 25 倍），尽管存在 AI 竞争担忧，业务增长依然强劲。
逐段跳播
我们对谷歌有一些重大疑问。它们今年没什么动作。
We have some big questions around Google. They haven't done much this year.
今天总体排名第一的是谷歌。Meta确实有几天跳到了谷歌之上，但Meta在下跌。Meta今天跌了约4%，上一个交易日跌了几个百分点。所以Meta已经回吐了约8000美元的收益，把自己拉低了，但你可以看到它们有多接近。
而谷歌这边，我赚了18000美元，其中很多收益都是在过去几年里实现的。
In rank number one today overall, it's Google. Now, Meta did jump up above Google for a couple days, but Meta's it's going down. Meta went down like 4% today and a couple percent uh the last market day.
So Meta has given up about $8,000 in gains, bumping itself down, but you can see how close these are. And with Google, I'm up $18,000 and a lot of these gains have been made in just the past couple of years.
当我审视谷歌时，目前有几件事令人担忧。最大的担忧是它们基本上在AI模型竞赛中落后了。谷歌在2026年曾处于领先地位。事实上，在年初，谷歌拥有最好的模型，即Gemini 3.5 Pro。
它非常出色。在当时表现极佳。但随后，OpenAI发布了几款新模型。它们最近发布了Astra，非常惊艳。而Claude也刚刚发布了新模型，同样非常惊艳。我对这些模型非常了解。我一直是这些不同工具中排名前1%的用户之一。
因此，我理解两者在能力上的差异。简单来说，ChatGPT就是好得多，比今天的谷歌好得多。ChatGPT比Gemini好太多了。它们今天其实并不接近。所以，我们已经经历了七八个月，谷歌就是原地踏步。
没有发布新的Pro模型。它们发布了几款轻量模型，速度快，适合简单的事情，比如总结邮件、建议回复之类的。但对于真正深入的工作、去完成任务、代理能力，谷歌似乎就是落后了。
When I look at Google, there's a a couple things that are concerning right now. And the biggest concern is that they've basically fallen behind in the AI model race. Google was in the lead in 2026.
In fact, at the beginning of the year, Google had the best model, which was Gemini 3.5 Pro. It was excellent. Did a great job for the time. But then, OpenAI released a couple new models.
They released recently Astra, which is incredible. And you have Claude just releasing new ones as well, which are incredible. I know these models very well. I'm always one of the top 1% users in these different tools.
And so, I understand the difference in capability between the two. And simply put, CatchBT is just way better, way better than Google today. ChatBT is so much better than Gemini.
They're not really that close today. So, we've had seven, eight months now of Google just going nowhere. No new pro model released. They've released a couple light models which are fast and nice for simple things, summarizing emails, suggested responses, stuff like that.
But for really in-depth work, going out and accomplishing things, agentic capabilities, it seems like Google has just fallen behind.
所以，你可能会看着这个想：“哇，我为什么还持有这20万美元的投资？我为什么不兑现一些收益？”那是因为我见过AI竞赛中事情变化有多快。几个月前，Meta似乎根本不在牌桌上。它们甚至差得远。
而现在，Muse似乎凭借其个性化的代理能力处于领先。所以谷歌的事情可能变化得非常快。我认为你有理由保持耐心。
So, you may look at this and think, "Wow, why am I still holding this $200,000 investment? Why don't I take some gains?" That's because I've seen how quickly things can change in the AI race.
A couple months ago, it seemed like Meta was not even on on the map. They weren't even close. And now, Muse seems like it's in the lead with its personalized agentic capabilities.
So things can change very quickly with Google. I think you have reason to be patient.
我们先来看估值。谷歌今天的估值并不离谱。我们要看远期市盈率。它是25倍。25倍的远期市盈率是好的。这是一个健康的市盈率，但不算疯狂。谷歌的定价并没有反映出极高的预期。这些是已经反映在价格中的良好预期，但不是极好的预期。
我们并没有在定价中反映30到35倍的市盈率。目前，苹果的市盈率是35倍。谷歌是25倍。所以，我看着这个，认为目前这只股票本身并没有大量的泡沫。
Let's go ahead and first look at the valuation. Google today is not trading at a wild valuation. We want to look at the forward PE. It's at a 25. A 25 forward PE is good. It's a healthy PE, but it's nothing crazy.
Google's not being priced with incredible levels of expectation. These are good expectations priced in, but not great. We're not pricing in a 30 to 35 PE ratio. Right now, Apple trades at a 35.
Google trades at a 25. So, I look at this and I believe that right now we don't have an enormous amount of excess in the stock to begin with.
然后，如果我们看看谷歌业务的实际状况，看起来并不那么糟。我们有按业务板块划分的收入，在过去几年里，基本上每个板块都在持续增长。谷歌搜索继续疯狂增长，增长了17%。未来随着所有这些代理和助手，搜索存在担忧。
这是谷歌业务中 somewhat 暴露的一部分。但谷歌有很多应对方式。谷歌的另一个重要方面是YouTube。谷歌整体大约是一家4万亿美元的企业。我认为YouTube价值约1万亿美元。
YouTube不仅广告增长约12%。相比谷歌其他部分这有点慢，但这并不代表YouTube的全部，因为YouTube的很多增长在订阅类别中，即所有YouTube Premium会员。
订阅增长约17%。把这些加在一起，就是15%的收入增长。云业务增长疯狂。在这个浅蓝色中，它同比增长了57%。这是基于过去12个月的数据。云积压订单现在增长了374%，超过5000亿美元。
谷歌的营收也在快速增长。收入增长估计为23%。所以，即使规模这么大，谷歌仍然以23%的收入增长超快增长。
And then if we look at what's actually going on with Google's business, it doesn't look so bad. We have the revenue by segment, which over the past couple of years, it continues to grow in basically every segment.
Google search continues to grow like crazy, growing 17%. There are concerns about search in the future with all these agents and assistants. That's one part of Google's business that is somewhat exposed.
But Google has a lot of ways of dealing with this. Another big aspect of Google is YouTube. Google overall is around a $4 trillion business. And I believe that YouTube is worth around $1 trillion.
We have YouTube not only showing up with its advertising growth, around 12%. That's a little slow compared to the rest of Google, but this doesn't represent all of YouTube because a lot of YouTube's growth is in the subscription category with all of their YouTube premium memberships.
Subscriptions is growing around 17%. When you combine these together, it's 15% revenue growth. The cloud is growing like crazy. In this light blue, it grew 57% year-over-year. That's on a trailing 12-month basis.
The cloud backlog is up 374% now above half a trillion dollars. Google is also growing its topline quickly. The revenue growth is estimated to be at 23%. So we still have Google growing super fast even at its size 23% revenue growth.
现在我们必须注意的一件事是，这里说每股收益明年将下降27%。虽然这个负27%的分析师估计在技术上是正确的。这是真实的实际数据。那只是因为它们在过去一年中从SpaceX等股权出售中获得了巨额收益。
当我们从有机基础上看，谷歌明年仍将增长其每股收益。目前分析师估计约为5%或6%。
Now one thing that we have to pay attention to is it says here that the earnings per share will decline by 27% next year. Now while that minus 27% analyst estimates is technically correct.
It's actual real data. That is only because they had massive gains in equity sales of things like SpaceX this past year. When we look at this on an organic basis, Google's still going to grow their EPS next year.
Around five or 6% is a current analyst estimate.
所以，当我审视谷歌时，我今天不愿兑现收益。我还没到那一步。如果公司股价涨到30倍市盈率，那么我会认真考虑，并可能减持一部分仓位。但就目前而言，我认为它仍然值得持有。
So, when I look at Google, I'm hesitant to take gains today. I'm not quite there yet. If the company trades up to a 30p ratio, then I'll strongly consider it and I'll likely trim some of my position.
But, as of right now, I believe it's still a hold.
这个频道对 $GOOGL 的历次判断
Joseph Carlson After Hours 在这只股票上共 3 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。