考虑到其增长，MSFT 的估值并不昂贵；预计将迎来估值上修。
逐段跳播
接下来是微软。这个是第七名。一个1.9万美元的仓位，盈利5.5万美元。到目前为止，它的远期市盈率是26倍。这些数字并不贵。
Next up, we have Microsoft. This one is number seven. a $19,000 position, 55K in the green. So far, it's trading at a 26 forward PE ratio. These are not expensive numbers.
过去很少有时期，一群如此强大、拥有如此多分销渠道、增长如此之快的公司——收入增长接近20%——以20倍出头的市盈率交易。我真的没见过这样的情况。当投资者再次对它们感到兴奋时，这些公司会被重新估值到更高水平。
There hasn't been many time periods in the past where a group of companies this powerful with this much distribution growing this quickly. High teens revenue growth have been trading in the mid to low 20s PE ratio.
I've really not seen anything like this. These companies will get rerated higher when investors become excited about them again.
举个例子，想象一下，如果微软因为AI能够裁掉10%的员工。于是他们裁掉了10%的员工。你觉得那成千上万的微软工程师和开发者会永远无所事事地待着吗？绝不可能。他们会去创业。他们会创办新公司、开发新软件。
他们会利用自己学到的技能，再加上人工智能，推出新的产品和服务。他们中的许多人会在其他公司找到工作，这些公司需要微软释放出来、投放到职场中的人才。但也有许多人会创造出全新的产品。
这是一个正和游戏。在那种情形下，微软用少10%的员工就能获得同样的生产率。
Imagine for example if Microsoft because of AI could fire 10% of its employee base. So they lay off 10% of their employees. Do you think those tens of thousands of Microsoft engineers and developers are going to sit around and do nothing forever?
Not a chance. They're going to start businesses. They're going to start new companies, new software. They're they'll use the skills that they learned plus artificial intelligence to spin up new products and services.
Many of them will get jobs at other companies that need talent that now Microsoft freed up and made available in the workspace. But also many of them will create entirely new products.
That is a positive sum game. Microsoft in that scenario would get the same level of productivity with 10% fewer employees.
这个频道对 $MSFT 的历次判断
Joseph Carlson After Hours 在这只股票上共 3 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。