NVDA是一家优质且便宜的公司，目标价较高，但因集中度风险和影子债务担忧而更偏好其他股票。
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英伟达刚刚发布了财报，哇，虽然有些隐忧，但整体表现其实相当不错。我认为市场正在消化一种担忧，即未来营收增速可能会开始二阶导数转负，也就是增长率放缓。我想这就是股价便宜的原因。
Well, Nvidia just reported earnings and wow, there are some skeletons in the closet, but they're also actually pretty dang good. I think markets are discounting the concern that in the future we're going to see revenues really start kind of second derivative going negative, right? The growth rate going down. Uh and and I think that's why the stock is cheap.
其市盈增长比率为0.67，这表明该股当前的合理目标价远高于300美元。在边际情况下，甚至可能高达800美元。但最大的拖累因素不仅在于估值很大程度上取决于未来的增长率，还因为它是一家市值5万亿美元的公司。
当你的收入集中在少数三个客户手中时，要推动一家5万亿美元市值的公司上涨是非常困难的。上半年，该公司44%的收入仅来自三个客户。
It trades for a six uh like a 0.67 PEG ratio, which suggests that the stock justifies today a price target well over $300. You could even go all the way up to potentially at the margins they run like an $800 stock. But, the biggest thing weighing this down is not only the fact that a lot is based on that future growth rate for this company, but it's a $5 trillion company. It's really difficult to move a $5 trillion company when your revenues are concentrated in the hands of just three bastards. First half revenues, 44% of this company's first half revenues came from just three customers.
这基本上导致了英伟达更多的超预期业绩和上调指引，正如我们所见。第三季度指引为1080亿美元，高于预期。通常英伟达的数据都会超出预期，但由于人们已经习惯了这一点，股价对此反应平淡。
这就是当你规模大到市值5万亿美元时会发生的情况。市场预期第三季度为1051.5亿美元，实际为1080亿。这很好，但这足以让人们再次真正兴奋起来吗？
And that's pretty much what will end up leading to more beatings and raises from Nvidia, which is what we got. We got a $108 billion forecast for Q3, which is bigger than expected. As usual, things are bigger than expected when Nvidia looks at the numbers, but people are so used to it being bigger than expected that the stock doesn't even really move on anymore. This is what happens when you're so big that you're $5 trillion big. The expectation was $105.15 billion for Q3. We got 108. So, that's good, but it's just like is that enough to really get people really excited again?
随着这一催化剂事件结束，明天股价可能会上涨。我实际上认为这很有可能。但我们拭目以待。通常一旦催化剂事件落地，就像是一次清算，人们会想谢天谢地，现在让我们关注软件板块的底部。
Maybe the stock will go up tomorrow now that this catalyst is over. I actually think that's kind of likely. But we'll see. But usually once you get the catalyst event, it's like a clearing event and people can be like Thank goodness. Now let's focus on the software bottom.
我们来看看这里有什么。投资收益下降导致英伟达净利润增速放缓。这是可以理解的，因为他们在上一季度获得了巨额投资收益。我们可以通过用本季度的投资收益减去过去6个月的投资收益来计算。
我们可以看到，上季度投资收益约为163亿美元，本季度为77亿美元，这些投资涉及SpaceX、OpenAI、Anthropic等公司。
So what do we got over here? We have uh lower investment gains reducing the net income growth at Nvidia. This is understandable because they took massive investment gains uh in the last quarter. We can actually calculate that by just subtracting this quarter's investment gains from last uh of the last 6 months. And we could see we had about 16.3 in gains last quarter, 7.7 this quarter from investments into companies like SpaceX or uh OpenAI or Anthropic or wherever they're investing in.
对我来说，关键问题是他们向其他业务投入了多少资金？我们在现金流量表中可以看到这一点。好吧，我们稍后会找到它。这是他们的损益表，我们马上回来。这是资产负债表。看这里，股权购买总额为424亿美元。
这是英伟达循环融资的一部分。上季度是158亿美元，抱歉，本季度是158亿美元。过去两个季度总计424亿美元。他们出售了72亿美元。这意味着总的循环融资购买额约为350亿美元。
The big question to me is like how much more money are they throwing at other businesses? And they did show us that on the cash flow statement somewhere around here. Uh they ended up throwing stuff Okay, well, we'll find it in just a moment. Where the heck is it? This is their income statement. We'll come right back to this in a moment. This is their balance sheet. And here we go. $42.4 billion in equity purchases purchases. This is the circular financing part at Nvidia. 15 uh point eight billion last quarter. Uh sorry, 15.8 billion this quarter. 42.4 billion in total over the last two quarters. And they did sell 7.2. Which means in total, they made circular financing purchases of somewhere around $35 billion.
这并不是今天许多人真正关注的新闻。更大的新闻是CFO评论中提到了循环租赁协议。这非常有趣。基本上，他们签署了15年的租赁合同，并表示试图将这些租赁转移给第三方。我的解读是：是的，伙计们，我们签了15年租约以便让他们购买更多我们的GPU，并且我们承诺将这种有毒债务劣后于第三方私募信贷公司。
这是我的观点。显然，我不确定，但这大概是我从字里行间读出的意思。
That wasn't really the news today that many people really wanted to pay attention to. The bigger news today was that in the CFO commentary, they actually talked about circular leasing deals. And this was quite a quite interesting. But basically, they signed these 15-year lease contracts where they're basically saying, "Hey, we're going to try to offload those leases to third parties." I translate this and I say, "Yep, boys, we signed a 15-year lease so they can buy more of our GPUs and we promise we'll subordinate this toxic debt to a third-party private credit company." That's my opinion. Obviously, I I don't know, but that's kind of how I read between the lines here.
CFO评论中还值得注意的一点是，这确实是OpenAI设施。但在8月，NVIDIA为OpenAI设施提供了1050亿美元的担保。有一些有限的例外情况，且随着OpenAI在该设施上线后开始向NVIDIA付款，这些担保会逐渐减少。
不过，这是一项为期20年的租赁。因此，这1050亿美元的承诺仍然是对股价的一种拖累。而且不仅仅是1050亿，你必须知道这一点。它是1050亿美元加上潜在的扩容能力。
It's also worth noting in the CFO commentary here that yes, indeed, this is the OpenAI facility. But in August, NVIDIA issued guarantees of $105 billion for for the OpenAI facility. There are some limited exceptions and those guarantees do decline as OpenAI starts paying NVIDIA once this facility actually goes online. It is a 20-year lease to OpenAI, though. So that $105 billion commitment remains a sag, like saggy balls. It remains a sag on the stock, right? But it's not just 105. You have to know that. It's $105 billion plus the potential expanded capacity.
扩容能力就在这里。听听这个。在20年内，我们预计该站点可以支持多次基础设施升级周期。这不仅意味着新芯片，还意味着更大规模，因为他们在这里说：“我们还有权分阶段提供信用支持，覆盖大约额外的3.8吉瓦。”
好吧，在已承诺的4.25吉瓦基础上增加3.8吉瓦。4.25吉瓦对应的是1050亿美元的担保。如果在此基础上增加89%，你基本上就给了OpenAI 1980亿美元的担保。这是一大笔担保。
这不会显示在你的资产负债表上。这是一项表外承诺。
The expanded capacity is right here. Listen to this. Uh over 20 years, we expect the site can support multiple infrastructure upgrade cycles. That doesn't just mean new chips, but it also means larger because they say right here, "We also have the option to provide credit support in phases for approximately 3.8 additional gigawatts." Okay, well, 3.8 additional gigawatts on top of the 4.25 you already committed to. 4.25 was $105 billion dollars of guarantees. If you add 89% to that, you basically have a hundred ninety eight billion dollars of guarantees that you're giving open AI. That's a lot of a guarantee. That doesn't show up on your balance sheet. That's an off balance sheet commitment.
你的资产负债表确实有所削弱。但仍然良好。我有570亿美元现金，430亿美元票据。570减430，意味着我有140亿美元自由现金流用于循环融资。公平地说，我有630亿美元流入，使总额达到770亿美元。
然后我可以扣除483亿美元的长期债务。所以，现金、应收账款减去短期和长期债务，剩下287亿美元的自由现金流。但是，如果我潜在地为OpenAI提供1050亿至1980亿美元的担保，再加上其他一些糟糕的15年期租赁，这些债务不会显示在这里。
至少据我所知是这样。也许有些租赁会显示，但我肯定不认为OpenAI的那些会显示。这就有问题了。所以那是这里的影子债务。
And your balance sheet has weakened a little bit. It's still good. I got fifty seven billion dollars in cash. I got forty three billion dollars in bills. Okay? What does that get me? Fifty seven minus forty three in bills. That means I got fourteen billion dollars in free cash for circular financing. Now in fairness, I got sixty three billion dollars coming in. That brings me up to seventy seven billion dollars. Then I can subtract out the forty eight point three billion dollars of long term debt they have. Okay? So cash, receivables, less short term and long term debt leaves me at free cash of twenty eight point seven billion dollars. Okay? But if I'm potentially guaranteeing a hundred five billion to a hundred ninety eight billion to open AI plus some other losers fifteen year leases, those debts don't show up here. Uh at least as far as I can tell. You know, maybe some of the leases do, but I don't I certainly don't think the open AI ones do, right? That's problematic. So that's like shadow debt that does show up here.
公平地说，他们确实超出了预期并上调了指引。第三季度指引范围比我们预期的要大。通常是1080亿美元正负2%。数据中心营收表现非常好。我们得到了890亿美元。太好了。这比预期高出3.65%。
第二季度比预期高出4.1%。毛利率为75%。这仍然显示出定价权。他们仍在赚钱。他们做得很好。这些人真的在印钞。
Now in fairness again, they beat and raised. Okay? Q3 guide came in with a larger range than we expected. 108 plus or minus two percent as usual. Data center revenue beat really nicely. We got eighty nine billion dollars. Great. That's fantastic. That beat by three point six five percent over the expectations. I got Q2 that beat by four point one percent over the expectations. I got gross margin that came in at seventy five percent. This is still pricing power. They're still cranking money. They're still doing good. These people are printing money. They really are.
第三季度的利润率指引不算太好。或者说，仍然很棒，只是不如第二季度那么棒。第二季度是75%，现在指引为74%。略有下降。他们认为部分原因是内存价格上涨，他们稍微提高了价格，但不足以抵消所有影响。
Their margin guide for the third quarter, not that great. Well, I should Let me put it this way. It's still great. It's just not as great as Q2. Q2 75%. We're now guiding 74%. So, a little bit of a decline. They argue some of this is because of memory prices and they raised prices a little bit, but not enough to offset all of that.
老实说，这份报告总体还不错，我们知道风险所在。是的，存在通过租赁进行的影子循环融资。是的，对其他公司进行了股权投资。是的，我们知道三个客户占了上半年收入的44%。我们知道你们对超大规模云服务商敞口很大。
Honestly, this report overall, like we know what the risks are, but it's pretty good, right? Yes, we've got shadow circular financing going on with leases. We got equity investments being made to other companies. Yes, we know three percent of three customers made up 40% 4% of of your first half revenue. We know you guys are really exposed to the hyperscalers.
但这部分原因可能仅仅是因为英伟达是一家如此庞大的公司。可能需要更多努力，可能在催化剂明确、人们能够消化信息后的开盘时段，人们会说：“这仍然是一家非常好的公司。它仍然非常便宜。这应该是一只300美元的股票。”
But part of it is probably just because Nvidia is such a big company. It's going to take some more effort, probably during market open now that the catalysts are clear and people can digest, people can go, "This is still a really good company. It's still really freaking cheap. This should be a $300 stock."
公平地说，我个人认为从现在起其他股票的表现将优于英伟达。所以，完全透明地讲，我已经把赌注从英伟达移开了。我们已经讨论过这一点，这是旧闻了，我们早就知道了。但这正是我能够维持这种信念的方式：我仍然认为这是一家好公司，我仍然认为那里有赚钱的机会，我仍然认为它被低估了。
我只是觉得我在其他地方能赚更多的钱。主要是因为我认为软件行业正在触底。
Now, in fairness, I personally think other stocks are going to be able to outperform Nvidia from here. So, like just in full transparency, I've moved my bets from Nvidia. We've already talked to you. This is old news. We already know that. But that's how I can maintain this belief that like I still think it's a good company. I still think there's money to be made. I still think it's undervalued. I just think I can make more money somewhere else. Mostly because I think software is bottoming.
当然，他们在企业级 Blackwell 系统上赚取了更多利润。我不记得他们是在哪里提到的，但在某个地方提到过。我对他们的 Blackwell 系统非常兴奋，基本上是工作站系统。
我认为 AI 支出的未来就在这里——Blackwell 工作站抵消了 PC 销售的放缓。
Uh and then of course, they are making more money they mentioned on their Blackwell systems for enterprise. Can't remember where they mentioned that, but somewhere they mentioned that. I'm very excited about their Blackwell systems, the basically workspace systems. I think that is where the future of the AI spend is going, right here. Blackwell workstations, offsetting slower PC sales.
PC 的升级周期确实已经放缓，我想这就是为什么英伟达有意试图稍微回避这一事实的原因。我还注意到，与过去六个月相比，本季度他们在研发方面的运营支出确实略有加速。不多，但有一点。我在想这是否是因为在 Grok（或类似项目）上的支出，或者是开放权重模型的支出。我不知道。
So, the upgrade cycle has really slowed for PCs, and I think that's why Nvidia is purposely trying to hide from that a little bit. I did also notice that their operating expenses on research and development did accelerate a little bit in this quarter compared to the last 6 months. Not much, but a little bit. I'm wondering if that's because of spending on grow, grok, whatever, or open weight spending. I don't know.
不过，他们仍然拥有定价权，因为我们的毛利润比去年增长了 2.13 倍。营收……呃，或者说是收入……叫什么来着？嗯，增长了 2.05 倍。换句话说，你在该营收增长上赚到的钱比你之前赚到的要多，这是好事。这是看涨信号。
They still do have pricing power though because we have a 2.13 x gross profit increase from last year. And uh pricing uh or revenue said uh what's what's it called? Um went 2.05. So, in other words, you made more money on uh on that revenue growth that you had than you previously were making, which is good. That's bullish.
这里仍然有来自其股票业务的营收增长。显然，如果进入下行周期，或者在下行周期中转为下跌，那就不是好事了。我们有那些隐性担保，情况并不理想。然后，当然，我们在循环融资方面花费了更多资金。
我们早就知道这一点。公平地说，回购金额接近 200 亿美元。然而，他们在这里发行了约 250 亿美元的债务。虽然，我想其中一些……我不确定是否有一部分是再融资，因为我看到这边也有所得款项。所以我对这点不太确定。
Still got revenue gains in here from their equities. Obviously, that goes to a down cycle or in a down cycle that turns to the downside, which is not great. We've got those shadow guarantees, not great. And uh and then of course, we're spending more money on uh circular financing over here. We already know that. In fairness, almost $20 billion in buybacks. Uh however, they issued debt over here of about $25 billion. Although, I think some of that I'm not sure if some of that was um a refinance because I see proceeds over here as well. So, I'm not sure about that.
好吧，我们肯定会比较资产负债表。这没那么重要。我们大致了解公司的现金状况。然后如果我看看……实际上，我就说这些了。这是我对英伟达的看法。我们会涵盖其他一些公司，但对英伟达来说，这相当令人兴奋。
老实说，总体而言，它是好的。这是一只便宜的股票。但是，它便宜是因为集中度风险以及担心这家巨头公司还能维持多久吗？尤其是考虑到那些隐性担保？也许吧。
Well, we'll definitely compare the balance sheet. It doesn't matter so much. We we understand roughly the cash position of the company. Uh and then if I look uh actually, that's all I got. That's my take on Nvidia. Uh so, we'll cover some of the other companies as well, but uh this is pretty exciting for Nvidia. And honestly, overall, it's good. It's a cheap stock. But, is it cheap because of concentration risk and the fear of how long can this giant company keep this going, especially with those shadow guarantees? Maybe.
这个频道对 $NVDA 的历次判断
Meet Kevin 在这只股票上共 8 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。