NVDA财报表现异常强劲；营收同比增长超过100%至960亿美元，且指引明年约70%的增长率具有看涨意义。

So like mentioned Nvidia's earnings super super strong. This is a company that I've owned for a very very long time. It's one that has completely changed my life. Now Nvidia's revenue was 96 billion dollars this quarter versus 46 a year ago. So it was over 100% year-over-year growth. That's insane. A company growing over 100% in those types of numbers is not something you see pretty often.

Now what I thought was pretty interesting is the data center market is broken down between two players, right? The hyperscalers and your AI clouds, your industrial and your enterprise. Your hyperscalers were about 49 billion, the other was 40 billion and and and the main reason this happened is because one of the customers that used to be in AI cloud has shifted to a hyperscale customer. So, it is interesting to see both are growing extremely well, and the market is not driven by just the big four or the big five. It's driven by a lot of other companies as well.

The other thing is free cash flow, right? $21 billion in free cash flow versus 13 a year a year ago. Capital returned to shareholders 26 billion, mainly in share repurchase, but you also have a strong dividend compared to a year ago. So, those are the very top-level numbers of Nvidia.

I think what you hear from commentary, what management says during the earnings call, the Q&A session, that tells you a lot more about the business and the long-term opportunity, especially for a company like Nvidia where AI innovation needs to continue to move forward.

So, I personally believe that a lot of analysts were going to push this. I didn't think it was important, but I wanted to hear what Nvidia said to it, and I thought that analysts were going to push it, and they did.

And the second is commitments, right? This was going to be the most important one, and I'll explain that a little bit little bit, but Nvidia kind of with the ASIC chip of jalapeno or just any AI chip in general, they Nvidia says that building a chip is not even half the battle, right? It's not even half the battle. The The more important part about developing a chip is the having the ability to scale it to a data sensor or a massive data sensor at at one scale, but more importantly, speed. So, the supply chain, the rack design, the volume ramp timeline, and much more is equally as crucial as having a good chip.

And Jensen says, go ahead, do whatever you want. A lot of these get canceled. Even if after great benchmarks, they get canceled. And I'm very confident in what our team can do, and that our team will provide the best total cost of ownership. So, it was asked a few times, but that was pretty much the answer. Jensen says, it comes with the business. Competition is going to come, and we're just going to continue to progress further. The big thing with us is we do have a massive balance sheet. And with that massive balance sheet, we will be able to lock in a lot of supply, and be able to move this semiconductor industry in the way we want to. And I think that's a huge, huge moat.

But, the second thing that I thought was going to be very important was commitments. This to me was the most important thing. I mentioned I am a huge AI pill bull, right? I'm really bullish in the AI market. And I do believe demand for compute will continue to grow faster than supply. At the same time, the supply chain from raw materials to land, power, shell is limited right now. So, Nvidia has to lock in a lot.

But, if we see a huge jump in commitment on the financials, I also want to know a better visibility than 1 trillion combined revenue from 2025 to 2027 on Blackwell and Rubin. So, I pretty much said, Nvidia, if you're going to give us more commitments, a lot more commitments, you have to give us the visibility.

Now, when Nvidia came out with their press release, there were unfortunately a lot of stuff about commitments. Secure critical components needed to meet demand for the next several years. Our commitment increased from 119 billion last quarter to 279 billion, primarily related to the procurement of memory. So, Nvidia's making these long-term commitments for memory right now.

But, regardless, what is the first thing we're seeing? That commitment jumped dramatically dramatically from a quarter ago, right? Supply. And then there's other commitments that they make, right? Cloud service agreements. For those that are not familiar, Nvidia uses a lot of cloud solutions for the research purposes, and that's this right here. Then they also have data center leases that have not commenced, and they will progress over time. They have that there. Then they have equity investments that they're making, right? They're making all these investments in different companies, and then they have capital expenditure. At the end of the day, that commitment overall, with all those things included that are just for NVIDIA, was about 366 billion total, right? For 2020 it from 2027 to 2032 and thereafter, right? This is a calendar year act calendar year beforehand, though, cuz remember their fiscal year is like a year ahead, but but that wasn't it, right? They also had additional commitments. They had about $56 billion in commitments for other AI cloud agreements, right? This is the one where they do backstop on any AI cloud solution. So, they had 366 year 500 and 56 billion, so about 400 and something billion they are already, and then they had guarantees for these massive land power shells. One of them really coming with that OpenAI, and that's about 108 billion.

So, in Originally, when earnings came out, the first thing we saw was NVIDIA is saying that they're on the hook of somewhere around half a trillion dollars in commitment, and you did see a negative price action on the stock, right?

And and and unfortunately, with the press release, we didn't get actual guidance until the earnings call. But if you mention, and this is what I've been saying for very, very long time, I know analysts have been pushing this in the last week, but if you go back up a month or so, this was going to be the biggest topic and the thing that moved the stock. If you're going to give me supply chain and crazy commitments, you need to give me visibility. And they ended up doing that, right?

I I posted here. NVIDIA, the market is worried when the stock price was down around 440 prior to the to prior to guidance, that the market is worried about the crazy commitments. But I'm just thinking, what kind of visibility does Nvidia have to make these commitments without blinking, right? Half a trillion dollars with obviously multi-year time spread, but half a trillion dollars pretty much in commitment. What kind of visibility do they have?

And that earning started, right? Earning started and the one of the first things they mentioned is, we expect to grow revenue by approximately 70% physical 2028, which is calendar year of 2027. This is a supply constrained outlook. That is insane.

Because then I went on to do kind of some quick math. So, analysts for this year are expecting Nvidia to do around $400 billion in revenue. I actually think it's going to be further than $400 billion in revenue. But, if you do that $400 billion in revenue and you grow it to 70 next year, that $400 billion is actually closer to $680 billion in revenue. The consensus was somewhere around 570 billion. So, that's a beat of over 100 billion of what the market was expecting. And that's when the whole story shifted for Nvidia. That's when you saw the stock price go up.

Like I mentioned earlier on, if you're going to give me those crazy commitments, you better give me a better visibility. And they did that, right? And that's when the stock price moved because you're doing $680 billion on the supply constrained market next year? That is insane. I understand. Now, I'm not worried about those commitments, right? I am not worried at the commitment at all because you gave me that visibility.

And the most important part about this is this is on a supply constrained market. This is what they feel comfortable guiding based on the supply chain lines that they see right now. But obviously, obviously things are moving in the supply chain industry, certain things are turning on, they can actually allocate more more revenue or or more supply chain. So, this actual growth can be higher than 70. I personally believe it's already higher than 70. Nvidia's known to be a little bit more conservative on their numbers than they tend to be. So, 75 bill 75% 80%. Now you're talking about $700 billion plus in revenue for next year. I don't necessarily think that's scary and to me that's overall bullish for the whole AI industry. It's also good to hear that they are supply constrained.

Nvidia mentioned that CapEx by the top five hyperscalers is expected to be 800 billion this year in 2026. That's expected to hit 1.3 trillion dollars in 2027.

So, this earnings was what I think the greatest earnings Nvidia has done and even without the price reaction, right? To a 20 is nothing crazy. It's only up 4%. It's not like it's up 10%, right? But uh it did give me this very confidence that the whole AI ecosystem is going to benefit, right? Because 1.3 trillion dollars next year in CapEx, this type of revenue guidance that they're giving, Nvidia is not just one product, right? It's not just one chip. You This impacts the whole industry.

Now, there was one red flag. Nvidia did mention that there is going to be a margin destruction and bears were right. Margin in fiscal year 2028, which is next year, is going from 75% to 73% due to memory prices.

Now, to me, is is the destruction of margins that the bears were talking about is extremely scary. Obviously sarcasm, right? Yeah, this is to me this is an amazing scenario where you're getting memory that's increasing by 80%, 60%, right? We see Micron say quarter over quarter memory prices are increasing 60%, 70% and all those memory prices increasing, yet your margin hit only took about a 2% percentage point decrease. I think that's amazing, right? Some companies were probably impacting more and that's that Nvidia ended up locking in a lot of supply. They mentioned a good portion of this supply is primarily procurement for memory. So, Nvidia already knows what's up with their memory solutions and the type of memory prices that they're going to pay. So, margin is still staying at a 73% to me is extremely extremely positive.

Check out what the chip happened dot com, right? That is my personal community, 40 off the next 7 days for my birthday and for amazing Nvidia earnings. I think the market deserves it. It's less than an Nvidia share, right? And I believe the alpha I provide there is worth more than an Nvidia share, but that's just my overall thoughts. I'm biased because it's my community.

Now, the final thing that I really grabbed out of this earnings call and I will be doing probably a lot more earnings more review on Nvidia because we did get a lot of information. We got things about Amazon. We got things about the memory space, but let's final this final top here is to me Coreweave, I ran, Nabias are just getting started. Jensen said it, right? that right now they have great visibility upstream and downstream. It's the case that it's the main reason they never forecasted or never guided to a year in advance, but they mentioned their demand is much greater than 70 our supply allows us to confidently deliver 70 per and we are going to continue to work with our supply chains to increase that. So, if you're confident about 70 and your supply constraints, and that means demands for chips continue to outstrip supply, what does that mean for revenue per megawatt? I think it's extremely bullish for revenue per megawatt.