看空NVDA未来3-5年；预计利润在2027年见顶，并可能从当前高位大幅下跌。
逐段跳播
英伟达是最大的半导体公司。
Nvidia is the largest semiconductor company.
并不是说半导体市场三年后崩溃时，英伟达每年会损失500亿美元。
It's not like Nvidia will lose $ 50 billion a year when the semiconductor market collapses 3 years from now.
很像半导体股票。你看着它们，心想：“它们看起来相当便宜。”看看英伟达，看看内存芯片，它们看起来相当便宜，对吧？
Much like semiconductor stocks. You look at them and think, "They look pretty cheap." Look at Nvidia, look at the memory chips, they look pretty cheap , right?
看看英伟达，看看内存芯片，它们看起来相当便宜，对吧？而你甚至没有意识到你在为自己设下陷阱。
Look at Nvidia, look at the memory chips, they look pretty cheap, right? And you don't even realize that you are setting a trap for yourself.
2027年将发生的是，像英伟达、美光、SK海力士、三星、台积电这样的公司的利润将达到最高水平。
What will happen in 2027 is that the profits of companies like Nvidia, Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung, TSMC will reach their highest levels.
你现在买入英伟达，买入这些内存芯片股票，对吧？因为你认为：“嘿，他们赚了很多钱。他们现在正处于一个大繁荣周期。每个人都从这些半导体公司中一无所获。”只要明白最终结果可能会类似于这张图表。
You buy Nvidia now, buy these memory chip stocks, right? Because you think, "Hey, they make a lot of money. They're in a big boom cycle right now. Everyone's getting nothing out of these semiconductor companies." Just understand that the end result will probably be similar to this chart.
英伟达股价从2018年的高点跌至2022年的低点，跌幅达50%，对吧？
Nvidia stock fell 50% from its high in 2018 to its low in 2022, right?
这并不意味着英伟达的市值会从6万亿美元跌至1万亿美元。这是不现实的。下跌80%或更多是不现实的。但是，英伟达能否达到6万亿美元，然后跌至3万亿美元，再回升至6万亿美元，然后在大约五年后站在5.5万亿美元？是的。
This does not mean that Nvidia's market cap will drop from $6 trillion to $1 trillion. This is unrealistic. A decline of 80% or more is unrealistic. But, can Nvidia go to $6 trillion, then drop to $3 trillion, turn around and reach $6 trillion again, and then stand at $5.5 trillion about 5 years from now? Yes.
我对买入英伟达没有兴趣，不过，谁知道在接下来的三个月里，它的价格会走向何方。我的意思是，谁知道它的价格会走向何方。但事实是，我在考虑未来几年。我不想在未来3到5年持有英伟达股票。哦，一点也不。
I have no interest in buying Nvidia, though, who knows where its price could go in the very short term, over the next 3 months. I mean, who knows where its price could go. But the truth is, I'm thinking about the next few years. I do n't want to be in Nvidia stock for the next 3 to 5 years. Oh, not at all.
所以，如果我看英伟达在2025年的表现，对吧？那是它的股价图表，对吧？它开局非常糟糕。例如，英伟达的股价在年初大约在150美元左右，对吧？不久之后，英伟达的股价跌破100美元。
我的意思是，情况迅速恶化。所以，在年初，英伟达的股价先是暴跌，然后又回升，对吧？股价在春季达到最低点，对吧？现在，记住图表甚至更加加速。原因是解放日也在这段时间处于最低价格，对吧？
所以，在这段时间，整个市场在2025年遭受了重大打击。所以，首先，当英伟达的股价触及最低点时，人们对英伟达的信心增加了，其次，突然在那时出现了一个整个市场上涨的动态。所以，英伟达从那个最低点上涨，并开始疯狂上涨。它基本上几乎翻了一番，对吧？
So, if I look at Nvidia in 2025, right ? It was its stock chart, right ? It had a very bad start. For example, Nvidia's share price was around $150 at the beginning of the year, right? And soon after, Nvidia's share price dropped below $100. I mean, the situation was rapidly getting worse. And so, at the beginning of the year, Nvidia's stock price first crashed and then rose again, right ? And stock prices reach their lowest point in the spring , right ? Now, remember the chart was even more accelerated. And the reason for this is that Liberation Day was also at its lowest price during this time , right? And so, during this period, the entire market took a big hit in 2025. So, firstly, when Nvidia's stock hits its lowest point, people's confidence in Nvidia increases, and secondly, suddenly at that time there is a dynamic where the entire market goes up. And so, Nvidia rose from that lowest price and started running like crazy. It basically almost doubled , right ?
这个频道对 $NVDA 的历次判断
Financial Education 在这只股票上共 3 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。