Burry 因担忧 AI 支出不可持续及未来竞争而做空 NVDA，尽管其承认短期内可能存在上行空间。
逐段跳播
但另一方面，他大举押注AI热潮将会退潮，做空Micron、Oracle、Palunteer和Nvidia等芯片与AI类股票，他做空股票的总押注现已超过其投资组合的21%。
But on the other side, he's betting big against the AI boom, shorting Chip and AI names like Micron, Oracle, Palunteer, and Nvidia, with his total bets against stocks now topping 21% of his portfolio.
最后，所有押注中最奇怪的一个：Nvidia。因为Bur不知怎么地在同一时间两头下注。他一边做空Nvidia，一边又持有Nvidia的看涨期权。这到底怎么说得通？就在Nvidia财报发布前，他买了一些看涨期权。
基本上，这是一个押注股价上涨的小仓位，但他干脆把它们称为对冲，就像保险一样。然后，不到一天后，他卖掉了一半，说它们已经完成了任务。他长期依然看空，但承认短期内几乎没有东西能阻挡股价进一步上涨。
And finally, the strangest bet of them all, Nvidia. Because Bur is somehow betting both ways at the exact same time. He is short Nvidia while also owning Nvidia call options. How on earth does that make sense?
Well, right before Nvidia's earnings, he bought some call options. Basically, a small bet the stock will go up, but he flat out called them a hedge like insurance. Then, less than a day later, he sold half of them, saying they' done their job.
He stays bearish for the long run, but admitted that there was little standing in the way of further stock appreciation in the short term.
那么，看多逻辑。Nvidia是一台印钞怪兽，在AI芯片上近乎垄断。Bur本人也承认，它甚至可能看起来被严重低估。顺便说一句，这在我们频道里挺有意思，因为有很多人对我说：“等等，Paul。
两年前你说Nvidia被严重高估。现在你又说它很可能被低估。”这背后的逻辑是，如果他们能够像过去那样持续增长，那它就是被低估的。但这正是该问的问题。也是Bur在说的同一件事。
So, the bullcase. Nvidia is a money printing monster with a near monopoly on AI chips. Bur himself admitted it can even look wildly undervalued. Which, by the way, is kind of interesting in our channel because I get a lot of people saying, "Wait a second, Paul.
Two years ago you said Nvidia is massive overpriced. Now you're saying it could very well be undervalued." And the logic behind that is if they're able to still consistently grow like they have been, it is undervalued.
But that's the exact question to ask. same thing Bur is saying.
但看空逻辑才是他真正的担忧。他说Nvidia目前享有垄断租金，重点在“目前”。他担心的不是AI是假的。他担心的是所有投在AI上的支出可能收不回来。他指出，投入数据中心和芯片的巨额资金可能以惊人的速度过时，竞争最终会咬上来，而那些神奇的利润可能维持不了今天股价所假设的那么久。这一直是我们最大的担忧。
But the bare case is his real worry. He said Nvidia currently commands monopoly rents with the emphasis on currently. His fear isn't that AI is fake. It's that all the AI spending on AI might not pay off.
He points the mind-boggling piles of money being poured into data centers and chips that could become outdated shockingly fast. that competition will eventually bite and that those magical profits may not last nearly as long as today's price assumes. That's always been our biggest concern.
那么，让我们来算算数字，自己看看，因为讨论一家最被过度炒作的公司可能被低估，是非常非常有意思的。各位，这个5.4万亿美元的巨无霸Nvidia，最精彩的部分在这里。企业价值5.47。
那是300亿美元的债务，而他们去年产生了127的自由现金流。过去五年是52.5亿。
So, let's run the numbers and see for ourselves because it's very, very interesting to be talking about one of the most overhyped companies potentially being undervalued. So, guys, the $5.4 trillion juggernaut that is Nvidia, here's the best part.
Enterprise values 5.47. That's $30 billion in debt and they generated 127 in free cash flow last year. 52 a.5 billion in the last five years.
资本回报率。这是苹果级别的资本回报率。去年73%，过去五年每年55%。
Returns on capital. These are Apple type of returns on capital. 73% last year, 55% a year for the last 5 years.
看看这些利润率。过去十年53.5%。过去五年56%。去年64。毛利率75%。各位，看看他们的毛利润增长。看看他们的季度增长。这是50%的关口。他们随着时间推移不断增长。2022年有一次下滑，然后看看那个飙升。
那正是整个AI芯片热潮发生的时候。它让他们的利润率绝对地飙升了。
Look at these profit margins. 53 a.5% for the last 10. 56% for the last five. 64 last year. Gross profit of 75%. Look at their gross profit growth, guys. Look at their quarterly growth.
This is the 50% mark. They were they were growing as time went on. A dip in 2022 and look at that skyrocket. That's when the whole AI chip craze happened. It absolutely skyrocketed their profit margins.
有意思的是，他们支付一笔小小的股息。0.12%，这占用了他们127自由现金流中的70亿。非常令人印象深刻。是的，他们做过一些小收购，过去五年160亿。
And what's interesting is they pay a small little dividend.12% that eats up 7 billion of their free cash flow of 127. Very impressive stuff. Yeah, they've made small um acquisitions, 16 billion over the last five years.
但看看这个营收增长率。过去三年每年110%，过去五年69%，过去十年49%。你本以为会反过来，增速在放缓。它只是变得更快了。问题是，这能持续吗？
But look at this revenue growth rate. 110% a year for the last three, 69 for the last five, 49 for the last 10. You would have thought this would be the other way around with it slowing down.
It's only gotten faster. The question is, will that go?
各位，我们社区成员实际上把Nvidia评为买入，这让我有点意外。这是我们的八大支柱。除了这些估值指标之外，其他全是勾。但你要记住，他们的自由现金流和净利润在过去五年大幅上升。所以，你不能太在意这些。
你得看最近的数字。尤其是如果你认为他们处于利润和现金流的永久平台期，如果你认为从这里只会变得更好，我会忽略这些。
Guys, our community members actually have Nvidia as a buy, which is kind of surprising to me. Here's our eight pillars. Everything's a check except for these valuation metrics.
But you got to remember their free cash flow and net income are up a lot over the last five years. So, you can't exactly care much about these. You got to look at the recent numbers.
If, especially if you think they're in a permanent plateau of profit and cash flow, if you think it's only going to get better from here, I would ignore these.
接下来，我们看分析师。分析师预计未来五年每股收益从4.70增长到20美元。天哪，各位。这太疯狂了。营收在未来五年从2150亿美元增长到1万亿美元。我是说，这绝对绝对疯狂。
Next, we go to analysts. Well, analysts have 470 growing to $20 per share in the next five years. Jesus Christ, guys. It's insane. and revenue going from 215 billion to a trillion dollars in the next five years. I mean, it's absolutely absolutely insane.
各位，我们现在在股票分析工具里。这家公司最难的部分是做十年分析。所以各位，我要做的是做一个五年分析，我会假设这波热潮继续下去，未来五年营收增长20%、30%、40%。各位，我不骗你们。
我连做五年都觉得很难。这可能发生吗？是的。但如果未来五年遇到任何挫折，这就会暴跌。利润率会暴跌。我填了35%、45%和55%，尽管他们的数字远超这些。市盈率18、23和28。还有，我的9.5%无安全边际回报率。
So guys, here we are in the stock analyzer tool. Now, the hard part about this company is doing a 10-year analysis. So guys, what I'm going to do is I'm going to do a five-year analysis and I'm gonna assume this boom keeps on going 20, 30, 40% revenue growth in the next five years.
Guys, I'm not going to lie to you. I have a hard time even doing this for five years. Could it happen? Yes. But if there are any breaks that get hit in the next five years, this is going to plummet.
Profit margin is going to plummet. I put in 35 45 and 55% even though they're crushing those numbers. PE 18, 23, and 28. And again, my 9.5% no margin of safety return.
这就是现在你屏幕上的同一个股票分析工具。同样的八大支柱。同样的关键指标。但在这种情况下，你自己对Lululemon、Adobe、Nvidia做出假设。你今天就能得出你自己的数字。
It's the same stock analyzer tool on your screen right now. It's the same eight pillars. It's the same key metrics. But in this situation, you put your own assumptions in on Lululemon, Adobe, Nvidia. You get your own number today.
各位，点击下方描述里的第一个链接。在我给你看Nvidia算出来是什么之前，先去做。我更希望你先有自己的答案。各位，该股目前是223。我按下分析按钮。记住，这是针对五年后的。这就是为什么这可能是一个价值型机会。
我得到低价145，高价709，中间价340。所以，如果你认为AI会长期持续下去，我能理解它被视为价值型机会背后的逻辑。
So guys, click the first link in the description below. Go do it before I show you what Nvidia came back at. I'd rather you have your own answer first. So guys, the stock's currently at 223.
I hit the analyze button. Remember, it's for 5 years from now. This is why this might be a value play. I have a low price of 145, a high price of 709, middle price of 340. So, I can understand this logic behind it being a value play if you think that AI is just going to keep on going for a long time.
在我们录制这段视频之后，Michael Bur本人出来说，他在9月份降低了风险。他减持了每一个仓位，并平掉了Nvidia和Palanteer的2026年12月看跌期权，没有展期到新的合约。
So, after we recorded this video, Michael Bur himself came out and said that he pulled in risk in September. He trimmed every one of his positions and he dropped his December 2026 puts on Nvidia and Palanteer without rolling them into new ones.
这个频道对 $NVDA 的历次判断
Everything Money 在这只股票上共 3 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。